70% home team angle chase system

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  • Machine Choice
    SBR MVP
    • 12-12-08
    • 3997

    #1
    70% home team angle chase system
    Another chase system.

    1. Add the home team's home wins to the road team's road losses. Then add the home team's home losses to the road team's road wins. This will form the win-loss angle for the home team. (For example, in today's Rangers/Orioles game the home team's win-loss angle is 30-12).
    2. Is the home team's win-loss angle 70% or greater? (in our example above the angle is 71%)
    3. If it is 70% or greater, it becomes a play.
    4. If the play is -139 or cheaper, play it straight up.
    5. If the play is -140 or higher, place a proportional amount of the wager on the runline to form a "push" if the home team only wins by one run. If they win by two runs, you will receive a standard -110 payout.
    6. If the play loses, chase it with the same or a different home team (that possesses the 70% angle) up to five more times using the Maritingale strategy of doubling up.
    7. The chances of betting 70% win-loss angles and losing six consecutive days in a row is nearly impossible.

    I have a starting bankroll of $2,000. Therefore, I can only afford to chase a $32 unit six times using the Martingale. In theory, I should win (or push if I played the partial runline for plays higher than -140 and my team won by one) 70% of the time. Therefore, with the amount of games left in the season (123), I should win about $1,747 (or more if I increase my chase unit as my bankroll builds).

    *CAVEAT: if the visiting pitcher is better than the home pitcher, no play regardless of the 70% angle.

    Today's play (May 19)

    Texas -165
    $20 straight to win $12
    $12 at -1.5 to win $15

    A win is a -139 or cheaper play winning straight up; or a run-line win for plays -140 or higher
    A loss can only happen once: bust
  • Machine Choice
    SBR MVP
    • 12-12-08
    • 3997

    #2
    This system can also be used without the "chase" element. It should still be profitable using standard bankroll management and units.

    But if you do decide to chase, the beauty of this system is that as your bankroll builds your chase unit can get larger. Which in turn builds your bankroll faster.

    For instance, right now I can only chase $32 units. But by All-Star break, I'll be able to increase the unit size to $41, and so on...by late Sept it should be at $50. The net profit would be about $2,005 for the year. Basically my bankroll would double.
    Comment
    • rfr3sh
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 11-07-09
      • 10229

      #3
      GL with this
      Comment
      • Bad_Cat
        Restricted User
        • 05-07-10
        • 246

        #4
        Another chase system..Good luck.
        Comment
        • mikey360
          SBR Sharp
          • 08-06-08
          • 388

          #5
          Hey Machine, you mention about hitting 70% you shouldn't need to go past 6 chase bets, but what if on say the 5th chase you are playing a ML and RL and only the ML wins? thats technically going to be a win but it wont have cleared your target profit.
          Comment
          • Machine Choice
            SBR MVP
            • 12-12-08
            • 3997

            #6
            Originally posted by mikey360
            Hey Machine, you mention about hitting 70% you shouldn't need to go past 6 chase bets, but what if on say the 5th chase you are playing a ML and RL and only the ML wins? thats technically going to be a win but it wont have cleared your target profit.
            Then it would be a push and you would repeat the same wager amount the next day.
            Comment
            • thebestthereis
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 03-01-09
              • 11459

              #7
              what constitutes the visiting pitcher being "better" as your filter? era? whip? more facial hair?
              Comment
              • Machine Choice
                SBR MVP
                • 12-12-08
                • 3997

                #8
                Originally posted by thebestthereis
                what constitutes the visiting pitcher being "better" as your filter? era? whip? more facial hair?
                Visiting pitcher's road ERA cannot be better than home pitcher's home ERA or else no play.
                Comment
                • solobass
                  SBR MVP
                  • 01-15-09
                  • 1277

                  #9
                  Interesting criteria. Best of luck on this.
                  Comment
                  • Sawyer
                    SBR Hall of Famer
                    • 06-01-09
                    • 7761

                    #10
                    GL Mate!
                    Comment
                    • Bad_Cat
                      Restricted User
                      • 05-07-10
                      • 246

                      #11
                      Good Luck sir but believe it or not ALL chase systems FAIL at some point just ask Mr. JM! I have always believed chase systems are for those who do not know or understand how to handicap. Not taking a stab at you just my opinion..Good Luck!
                      Comment
                      • Josu
                        SBR Wise Guy
                        • 07-02-09
                        • 842

                        #12
                        I think you'll do very well, good luck.
                        Comment
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