MLB Betting: Tigers Host Struggling Red Sox
After taking three of four from the New York Yankees, Detroit gets a shot to take down another AL East heavyweight when the Boston Red Sox pay Austin Jackson & Company a weekend visit.
The Boston Red Sox used their considerable financial wherewithal to become a team centered on pitching and defense this past offseason.
Looking at the way things are going in Beantown, the experiment has failed. Heading into their three-game series this weekend with the Detroit Tigers (20-15, +5.57 units) at Comerica Park, the Red Sox (18-17, -5.08 units) sit 6.5 games behind first-place Tampa Bay – in fourth spot in the American League East.
BoSox backers are feeling the pain. Boston is 22nd on the MLB moneylist, and is the worst runline wager in baseball at 11-24 against the spread (-10.06 units).
The Red Sox – typically one of the strongest clubs at home – are just a game above .500 despite playing 23 of their first 35 contests at Fenway Park. Boston simply hasn’t benefited from its home digs like it usually does: The BoSox are 12-11 against the money line at home to go along with a 6-6 record on the road.
Theo Epstein isn’t really to blame, either. Outside of John Lackey (4-1, 4.60 ERA), most of the players he brought in over the winter are panning out.
Adrian Beltre and Marco Scutaro are as advertised, while Mike Cameron has played in only 11 games because of a strained abdominal muscle. Jason Bay – who wasn’t re-signed – is struggling for the New York Mets.
The blame lies with a pitching staff that, quite simply, has underachieved. Jon Lester (3-2, 3.71 ERA) and Clay Buchholz (3-3, 3.82 ERA) are the only starters that’ve been respectable. Tim Wakefield (0-2, 5.63) could finally be past it, while Daisuke Matsuzaka (2-1, 6.35 ERA) hasn’t been up to snuff in three starts.
The worst of the bunch is ace Josh Beckett (1-1, 7.46 ERA), who could be set to go on the 15-day disabled list with a back injury. Beckett missed his scheduled start on Wednesday against Toronto, and won’t pitch as planned on Friday in the series opener (7:05 p.m. ET).
Overall, the starters have a 5.05 ERA, contributing to Boston’s 4.90 team ERA which is 25th in the bigs. Besides Jon Papelbon, Manny Delcarmen, and Daniel Bard, the bullpen (4.60 ERA – 22nd in MLB) hasn’t been much better.
The good news is the offense has picked up the slack over the last 10 games, during which the Red Sox are 7-3 against the moneyline. Boston is hitting .297 over the stretch, but I’d be worried that the staff posted a 5.20 ERA.
After all, this is team built on pitching and defense, and I have my doubts the offense can get much better. The BoSox are third in team OPS (.797) and home runs (44), and they’re not going to hit close to .300 for the rest of the season.
Square bettors are going to be roped in to Boston’s recent success, but I’d advise a wait-and-see approach with the Red Sox. If the pitching doesn’t improve soon, Boston should be fade bait for the remainder of the season given its public status.
For their part, the Tigers are riding high after taking three of four from the Yankees at Comerica Park. Detroit (+115) blanked New York 6-0 in the series finale on Thursday afternoon, as the teams played ‘under’ the 7½-run total. The Tigers are now 8-3 'under' in their last 11 games (6-5 SU).
Like Boston, Detroit’s starters (5.19 ERA) have underperformed, but unlike the BoSox, the Tigers have the best bullpen (2.56 ERA) in baseball. Jim Leyland has no worries yanking one of his starters out of the game early – something for bettors to consider when assessing the pitching matchups in the series.
Buchholz gets the ball for Boston on Friday night, while Detroit counters with Max Scherzer (1-3, 6.81 ERA), who’s posted a 14.54 ERA in his last three outings.
Oddsmakers opened Boston as 140 chalk for the opener, with the total at 9½. Detroit was priced as a 120 money line underdog.
Lester is the starter for the Red Sox in Saturday night’s second game (7:05 PM ET), and he’ll face Dontrelle Willis (1-1, 3.99 ERA) in a battle of lefthanders. Willis missed his start on Monday against the Yanks because of the flu, but should be good to go on Saturday.
The Tigers had yet to name their starter for Sunday afternoon’s series finale (1:05 p.m. ET) as of press time, while Lackey gets the call for the BoSox.
After taking three of four from the New York Yankees, Detroit gets a shot to take down another AL East heavyweight when the Boston Red Sox pay Austin Jackson & Company a weekend visit.
The Boston Red Sox used their considerable financial wherewithal to become a team centered on pitching and defense this past offseason.
Looking at the way things are going in Beantown, the experiment has failed. Heading into their three-game series this weekend with the Detroit Tigers (20-15, +5.57 units) at Comerica Park, the Red Sox (18-17, -5.08 units) sit 6.5 games behind first-place Tampa Bay – in fourth spot in the American League East.
BoSox backers are feeling the pain. Boston is 22nd on the MLB moneylist, and is the worst runline wager in baseball at 11-24 against the spread (-10.06 units).
The Red Sox – typically one of the strongest clubs at home – are just a game above .500 despite playing 23 of their first 35 contests at Fenway Park. Boston simply hasn’t benefited from its home digs like it usually does: The BoSox are 12-11 against the money line at home to go along with a 6-6 record on the road.
Theo Epstein isn’t really to blame, either. Outside of John Lackey (4-1, 4.60 ERA), most of the players he brought in over the winter are panning out.
Adrian Beltre and Marco Scutaro are as advertised, while Mike Cameron has played in only 11 games because of a strained abdominal muscle. Jason Bay – who wasn’t re-signed – is struggling for the New York Mets.
The blame lies with a pitching staff that, quite simply, has underachieved. Jon Lester (3-2, 3.71 ERA) and Clay Buchholz (3-3, 3.82 ERA) are the only starters that’ve been respectable. Tim Wakefield (0-2, 5.63) could finally be past it, while Daisuke Matsuzaka (2-1, 6.35 ERA) hasn’t been up to snuff in three starts.
The worst of the bunch is ace Josh Beckett (1-1, 7.46 ERA), who could be set to go on the 15-day disabled list with a back injury. Beckett missed his scheduled start on Wednesday against Toronto, and won’t pitch as planned on Friday in the series opener (7:05 p.m. ET).
Overall, the starters have a 5.05 ERA, contributing to Boston’s 4.90 team ERA which is 25th in the bigs. Besides Jon Papelbon, Manny Delcarmen, and Daniel Bard, the bullpen (4.60 ERA – 22nd in MLB) hasn’t been much better.
The good news is the offense has picked up the slack over the last 10 games, during which the Red Sox are 7-3 against the moneyline. Boston is hitting .297 over the stretch, but I’d be worried that the staff posted a 5.20 ERA.
After all, this is team built on pitching and defense, and I have my doubts the offense can get much better. The BoSox are third in team OPS (.797) and home runs (44), and they’re not going to hit close to .300 for the rest of the season.
Square bettors are going to be roped in to Boston’s recent success, but I’d advise a wait-and-see approach with the Red Sox. If the pitching doesn’t improve soon, Boston should be fade bait for the remainder of the season given its public status.
For their part, the Tigers are riding high after taking three of four from the Yankees at Comerica Park. Detroit (+115) blanked New York 6-0 in the series finale on Thursday afternoon, as the teams played ‘under’ the 7½-run total. The Tigers are now 8-3 'under' in their last 11 games (6-5 SU).
Like Boston, Detroit’s starters (5.19 ERA) have underperformed, but unlike the BoSox, the Tigers have the best bullpen (2.56 ERA) in baseball. Jim Leyland has no worries yanking one of his starters out of the game early – something for bettors to consider when assessing the pitching matchups in the series.
Buchholz gets the ball for Boston on Friday night, while Detroit counters with Max Scherzer (1-3, 6.81 ERA), who’s posted a 14.54 ERA in his last three outings.
Oddsmakers opened Boston as 140 chalk for the opener, with the total at 9½. Detroit was priced as a 120 money line underdog.
Lester is the starter for the Red Sox in Saturday night’s second game (7:05 PM ET), and he’ll face Dontrelle Willis (1-1, 3.99 ERA) in a battle of lefthanders. Willis missed his start on Monday against the Yanks because of the flu, but should be good to go on Saturday.
The Tigers had yet to name their starter for Sunday afternoon’s series finale (1:05 p.m. ET) as of press time, while Lackey gets the call for the BoSox.