Just a heads up for everyone who has been asking where are the plays. In Sports wagering you need to be 100% honest with yourself. Meaning if something isnt quite working then you need to a) stop. or b) figure out why and adjust. I keep up on baseball very firmly but i still rely on my model/projections to determine or at least steer my to my wagers. My model seems to be slumping lately and finding less and less edges. and the ones it does find don't seem to align with my points of view. therefore i have totally been laying off the cards and trying to adjust as it has still been profitable most of the previous years but seems to be becoming less and less profitable as time moves along. Therefore, I believe i'm not fully accounting for some bigger factors that are unseen or the market has caught up and is accounting for factors much like the model therefore reducing the so called edge. either way i have been digging heavily and trying to figure it out.
I am down about 8.24u for the year and if i hadn't laid off for the most part this last month or so would have been closer to -18u. That isn't good obviously. I will continue to adjust the model and track it while also keeping up with baseball like always. Post all star break i will start to tread lightly as all the adjustments should be done by then. We have been very profitable over the years and down 8.24 units at the break isnt the end of the world. I AM NOT GIVING UP but more taking a little bit of time to adjust and iron out some kinks!
curious to any of you long standing profitable MLB bettors if you have experienced the same over the past couple years and especially this year!?
Best of luck as i will have some fun plays for the Homerun derby and maybe the all star game and then will pick it back up after the break!
Anyone that has followed knows my biggest strength is season long stuff and with the emergence of updated win totals becoming more and more prevalent going to add a few here
Adding a couple adjusted win totals I’ll give some insight to why
Reds under 66.5 total wins (3u). This is somewhat a two team bet wrapped into one. The Reds after an awful start have since played pretty well all things considering. They carry a terrible run differential and have actually been a bit lucky according to my projections. Have them about +1.8 wins more than their true record should be. The Reds would have to go 33 and 38 over the remaining 71 games that features 36 games against teams .500 or above. They also 7 games against that daunting Marlins pitching staff. And another 12 games against the cubs who I am much higher on than their record. I have the cubs about 8 games better than their true record at the moment. Which is why this is more of a 2 team wager (I’m somewhat betting on the cubs here and against the reds). But even if the Reds handle the cubs better than expected I can still see this under getting home easily. Reds likely to move Castillo and anyone else possible. Castillo has been nails this season and his loss alone will greatly hurt this staff and bad bullpen. BE SURE TO SHOP AROUND WITH ONLY 71 games remaining a half win or a full win is extra valuable!!!
adjusted win total #2 & #3 are very correlated.
Athletics under 59.5 wins (1u)
Angels over 74 wins (1u)
The angels get 12 games against the athletics down the stretch. Therefore I’m hoping we get a boost Angels wins here who I think play a little better down the backstretch bc their pitching outside of Ohtani really can’t get any worse. As for the A’s the schedule is rough filled with teams like Mets/braves/Astros/Yankees/mariners and for a team that wanted to send their lone all star on a Commercial flight to the game— This team will do everything in its power to lose!
8/26
Prop:Freddy Peralta under 6.5 ks -115 (1u)
He hasn’t looked the same since coming back from injury. Cubs playing good baseball despite the fact Peralta has pretty solid numbers against the cubs lineup career wise tonight but still not tons of Ks. 6.5 is too high tonight
Cubs +145 (0.5u). Pretty self explanatory here. Like what Steele has to offer. Can really have solid swing and Miss stuff when on. Fading Peralta and a struggling Brewers team gotta wonder how much life they have left here. Solid price
Yankees -235 (1u)
Yankees team total over 1.5 first 5 (-140) (1u)
these prices seem way too light here in my opinion. Sears is a incredible 5-0 and supports a sub 2 ERA. But these stats are beyond misleading. Sears supports a 4.42 xFIP. Here he faces a Yankees lineup that seems to be finding its stride after a brutal stretch. Stanton back in the lineup is some much needed fire power and offers Judge some protection. The Yankees have lost the last 4 of Cole’s starts as he has pitched himself out of the cy young race. But it’s still Gerrit Cole and this is a chance to get back on track against a far less superior lineup of guys which most have never faced Cole before. The ballpark isn’t supportive of homers which seems to be Cole’s Achilles heel at times. Think the Yankees get it done tonight as they did last night.
As far as the first 5 I’m very surprised they are hanging a 1.5 here for the Yankees. Bookmakers are far overvaluing Sears here imo. If Sears incredible luck continues so be it I guess.
SBR Top-Rated Sportsbooks
Reply With Quote