Quick Write up without getting too crazy on stats.
first off I have the rays +152 for the series there is a +191 at heritage right now I suggest getting on that. The Rays have the advantage in the pen and also deeper in the starting staff. Kershaw hasn’t been good in this spot and I can’t not factor that in. There are some severe concerns with the rays lineup in terms of average as they have hit close to .200 this postseason which is rather awful. But the fact of the matter is there OBP isn’t as bad as you would think around .290ish. That’s not good but that shows even though average is low they are still getting on base. Oddly enough the Rays have lived and died by the homer and strikeout. The rays will strike out a ton in this series as they have done all year. But if they hit a few homers that again might be all they need with this stellar staff and incredible bullpen. Charlie Morton is quietly one of the best big game pitchers ever. We will also want to closely watch Anderson out of the rays pen who has had a bumpy couple of outings. Was it a rough couple days or is something going on with him. We will soon find out
cDodgers clear advantage in the box which is pretty obvious but it may get nullified more than you think. The Rays have been undervalued all year and we see it again here. The dodgers could very well win the series as they are the more talented team loaded with stars. But a wise man once told me good pitching always beats good hitting.
World Series play:
Rays to win the Series +191 (2u). If we get in position we may hedge out some depending on what I see.
rays game 1 first 5 +143 (0.7u)
rays game +155 (0.7u)
pending:
World Series pending:
Rays to win the Series +191 (2u).
rays +360 to win the series (1u)
so in this business there are a lot of different takes and angles on if you should hedge or not... some guys like to hedge and say in this business you guarantee profit when you have the opportunity some guys say you are giving away your bet equity etc. I’m not here to speak who is wrong and who is right. As I have used both approaches throughout my betting career (if you want to call it that lol).
for those asking me about the hedge on the rays number I could technically hedge off the Rays +360 after game 1 bet. And I could even get out of the original bet completely. If you followed along and feel like that is the right thing to do go for it. My strategy and takes aren’t the end all be all. However, I’m not hedging out of any of it yet. When betting into a 7 game series I’m usually not doing it in order to hedge out a couple games in. That being said if you see something you strongly believe in that suggests the dodgers will win this series and feel this is your last chance to get out of the way of the train then do it.
Before the series I thought that the dodgers are the better overall team but the rays have the pitching to compete and steal the series or at least make it a long series. I still feel that way. And to an extent I think Dave Roberts (dodgers organization idk if Dave is actually calling the shots or not as I’ve said in years past) did us rays backers a favor. If you follow my Tweeter account you probably saw my take on taking Kershaw out of game 1 early. I thought it was a mistake. By taking him out you are putting extra stress on your bullpen especially when you are planning on a bullpen game Game 2 of the series. And also you give the Rays a chance to see some of these guys that would have been hidden otherwise. The Rays have now already seen Gonzalez & Kelly twice, baez once, McGee, May , Floro, and Gonslin. Which is fine but we are only in game 2 and the series is 1-1. Buehler will likely help the dodgers pen tonight as you would expect him to get deeper into the game. But if he doesn’t the Dodgers are in a world of trouble in my opinion with games Saturday and Sunday on deck and in the hole.
the Dodgers lineup has looked like it’s been wide awake for the most part ever since they broke open late in Game 2 vs the Braves. So they do have that going for them. But on the other side of that the Rays last game offensively looked the best they have all postseason. Th Rays only struck out 7 times and put together 10 hits including 2 homers from Brandon Lowe who has been rather invisible as of late.
If Lowe gets rolling and they can get buehler out of the game early The Dodgers might start to feel some serious pressure.
as for the game tonight the number looks pretty spot on may consider a live bet depending on what I see so follow the tweeter account with notifications on to get those in real time. if you like the Rays and haven’t invested in the series yet I would go ahead and do so +175 price on the Rays is showing plenty of value still in my book.. given I have 3 units on them already (which is large for me) I will not be adding anymore and will instead be rooting for them To win tonight or at least one of the next 2.
i will dig through some props and maybe throw a little bit on something there just for some action on the individual game. But other than that it’s a pass on the individual game and root for our series position. I will add any props here in a bit if I can find something I like or with value.
best of luck guys should be a good one with the young star in Buehler and the modern day Andy Pettitte (Charlie Morton). Hope most of you kids on here know who that is haha.
Game 3 props:
Game 3 props:Will smith under 1.5 total bases (-145) (0.5u)
Will smith under 2 total hits/runs/rbis (-115) 0.5u
adames over 0.5 total bases (-114) (0.5u)
Adames +110 more hits/runs/rbi than pederson (0.5u)
lean under Buehler 7.5 ks due to how bad his command has been in postseason but couldn’t pull the trigger
Game 3 props:Will smith under 1.5 total bases (-145) (0.5u)✅
Will smith under 2 total hits/runs/rbis (-115) 0.5u✅
adames over 0.5 total bases (-114) (0.5u)✅
Adames +110 more hits/runs/rbi than pederson (0.5u) pushhh
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