Are Cardinals too easy in the NL Central?
St. Louis coasted to the NL Central title last year, then was promptly sent home from the playoffs by the Dodgers. The Cards once again look like the easy pick in the majors' largest division.
Welcome to my division. I say mine because it's where my Astros reside. That makes five of the six divisional articles that I've worked the Houston Nine into the discussion. If you had the 'under' 5½ on that bet, please make your way to the teller.
Neither my Astros or the Pirates will win this division in 2010. The other four teams have varying degrees of probability to take the NLC flag. St. Louis leads that group.
But really, are the Cardinals that safe a bet here? I think they are.
The American League has some pretty wide-open races in all three divisions. Certainly the AL Central is up for grabs, with the Angels' hold in the AL West no longer a given. And though the Yankees are loaded for bear once again in the AL East, the Red Sox still loom.
The NL overall is a bit uncertain as we approach the gate. The NL East, for lack of better and bettor words, is the Phillies' to lose, and the NL West may be the most competitive (mysterious?) group from top to bottom. St. Louis has that 'easy look' in the NL Central.
The simulations agree, but only with the health of the major players. The same caveat exists for any club at this point, but the featured stars in Gateway City might be more crucial than any other squad.
NOTE: Win totals and prices shown below were current at The Greek.com as of Monday, March 29, 7 p.m. (ET)
Chicago 83½ (Over +110 / Under -130)
Avg. wins: 83.6 (High-88, Low-78)
Analysis: It is always tough for me to cap this team, second-toughest maybe to my Astros since 1994. And it's especially tough since the Cubs are coming off such a downer year following their 97-win 2008 campaign.
There are three names that immediately jump to thought regarding this team rebounding in 2010. Alfonso Soriano is the most obvious; he has to produce. The second is Aramis Ramirez; he has to stay healthy. And the last name is whoever follows the starting pitcher to the mound.
My pick: The kiss of death - over 83½.
Cincinnati 79½ (-135/+115)
Avg. Wins: 82.6 (High-85, Low-74)
Analysis: According to the simulations, the Reds are among the safest 'over' bets. And I like this team to be .500 this year after a bit of improvement in 2009.
The simulations pointed to a 40-45 run improvement on offense and about the same overall pitching/defense stats from a year ago. No doubt, there are questions in the rotation, at third and with an unsettled outfield. Francisco Cordero is huge in this bullpen, but I like the Reds. chances.
My pick: Over 79½
Houston 74½ (+110/-130)
Avg. Wins: 73.4 (High-80, Low-66)
Analysis: The Astros hit 73-74 wins three of the five simulations. I hold out hope as a fan, but the starting pitching is a mess, so is the bullpen and the offense will be dependent on either the big names ALL having big years or the no-names having breakout seasons.
My pick: Under 74½.
Milwaukee 80½ (-105/-115)
Avg. Wins: 82.4 (High-86, Low-77)
Analysis: Great offensive potential here. The Brewers finished first in the NL in runs scored in their best simulation, led by Prince Fielder's 51 HR and Ryan Braun's MVP-esque stats. But the key was the pitching staff and defense allowing almost 100 fewer runs. I'm not sure that is possible.
Got to pin a lot of the hopes on this team squarely on the left and right shoulders of Yovani Gallardo, Randy Wolf, Doug Davis and Trevor Hoffman.
My pick: I'd bet the 'over' if you forced me to by making me listen to either Keith Olbermann or Bill O'Reilly for more than a few seconds.
Pittsburgh 69½ (+100/-120)
Avg. Wins: 67.4 (High-74, Low-64)
Analysis: Let me begin by saying that I hope I'm eating crow on this bet in October. Betting a team to lose at least 93 games is as hard as betting a tem to win that many. Still...
My pick: Almost as safe as the Toronto 'under.'
St. Louis 88½ (-120/+100)
Avg. Wins: 89.8 (High-96, Low-82)
Analysis: The Cardinals topped out with a 96-win season in the simulations, and that's a big deal with my conservative input. Two players stood out in the 82-win season, the biggest discrepancy from high to low in the simulations.
There's little doubt who the most-feared hitter is entering this season. Albert Pujols drives this offense. Even with him, this offense is fragile. Without him, it's so-so. And thought Adam Wainwright may be the actual ace, Chris Carpenter is the true depth of the starting staff. I have all the faith in the world that Tony La Russa can figure out the bullpen and the batting order. But without Pujols and/or Carpenter, this team will be in trouble.
My pick: NL Central winners, but no bet on win totals.
Statistical sources for this article include Baseball-Reference.com, ESPN.com, Retrosheet.org, SBRforum.com and UncleWilliesAgingMind.net.
St. Louis coasted to the NL Central title last year, then was promptly sent home from the playoffs by the Dodgers. The Cards once again look like the easy pick in the majors' largest division.
Welcome to my division. I say mine because it's where my Astros reside. That makes five of the six divisional articles that I've worked the Houston Nine into the discussion. If you had the 'under' 5½ on that bet, please make your way to the teller.
Neither my Astros or the Pirates will win this division in 2010. The other four teams have varying degrees of probability to take the NLC flag. St. Louis leads that group.
But really, are the Cardinals that safe a bet here? I think they are.
The American League has some pretty wide-open races in all three divisions. Certainly the AL Central is up for grabs, with the Angels' hold in the AL West no longer a given. And though the Yankees are loaded for bear once again in the AL East, the Red Sox still loom.
The NL overall is a bit uncertain as we approach the gate. The NL East, for lack of better and bettor words, is the Phillies' to lose, and the NL West may be the most competitive (mysterious?) group from top to bottom. St. Louis has that 'easy look' in the NL Central.
The simulations agree, but only with the health of the major players. The same caveat exists for any club at this point, but the featured stars in Gateway City might be more crucial than any other squad.
NOTE: Win totals and prices shown below were current at The Greek.com as of Monday, March 29, 7 p.m. (ET)
Chicago 83½ (Over +110 / Under -130)
Avg. wins: 83.6 (High-88, Low-78)
Analysis: It is always tough for me to cap this team, second-toughest maybe to my Astros since 1994. And it's especially tough since the Cubs are coming off such a downer year following their 97-win 2008 campaign.
There are three names that immediately jump to thought regarding this team rebounding in 2010. Alfonso Soriano is the most obvious; he has to produce. The second is Aramis Ramirez; he has to stay healthy. And the last name is whoever follows the starting pitcher to the mound.
My pick: The kiss of death - over 83½.
Cincinnati 79½ (-135/+115)
Avg. Wins: 82.6 (High-85, Low-74)
Analysis: According to the simulations, the Reds are among the safest 'over' bets. And I like this team to be .500 this year after a bit of improvement in 2009.
The simulations pointed to a 40-45 run improvement on offense and about the same overall pitching/defense stats from a year ago. No doubt, there are questions in the rotation, at third and with an unsettled outfield. Francisco Cordero is huge in this bullpen, but I like the Reds. chances.
My pick: Over 79½
Houston 74½ (+110/-130)
Avg. Wins: 73.4 (High-80, Low-66)
Analysis: The Astros hit 73-74 wins three of the five simulations. I hold out hope as a fan, but the starting pitching is a mess, so is the bullpen and the offense will be dependent on either the big names ALL having big years or the no-names having breakout seasons.
My pick: Under 74½.
Milwaukee 80½ (-105/-115)
Avg. Wins: 82.4 (High-86, Low-77)
Analysis: Great offensive potential here. The Brewers finished first in the NL in runs scored in their best simulation, led by Prince Fielder's 51 HR and Ryan Braun's MVP-esque stats. But the key was the pitching staff and defense allowing almost 100 fewer runs. I'm not sure that is possible.
Got to pin a lot of the hopes on this team squarely on the left and right shoulders of Yovani Gallardo, Randy Wolf, Doug Davis and Trevor Hoffman.
My pick: I'd bet the 'over' if you forced me to by making me listen to either Keith Olbermann or Bill O'Reilly for more than a few seconds.
Pittsburgh 69½ (+100/-120)
Avg. Wins: 67.4 (High-74, Low-64)
Analysis: Let me begin by saying that I hope I'm eating crow on this bet in October. Betting a team to lose at least 93 games is as hard as betting a tem to win that many. Still...
My pick: Almost as safe as the Toronto 'under.'
St. Louis 88½ (-120/+100)
Avg. Wins: 89.8 (High-96, Low-82)
Analysis: The Cardinals topped out with a 96-win season in the simulations, and that's a big deal with my conservative input. Two players stood out in the 82-win season, the biggest discrepancy from high to low in the simulations.
There's little doubt who the most-feared hitter is entering this season. Albert Pujols drives this offense. Even with him, this offense is fragile. Without him, it's so-so. And thought Adam Wainwright may be the actual ace, Chris Carpenter is the true depth of the starting staff. I have all the faith in the world that Tony La Russa can figure out the bullpen and the batting order. But without Pujols and/or Carpenter, this team will be in trouble.
My pick: NL Central winners, but no bet on win totals.
Statistical sources for this article include Baseball-Reference.com, ESPN.com, Retrosheet.org, SBRforum.com and UncleWilliesAgingMind.net.
