Chicago White Sox get my AL Central 'Jenks'
Ozzie Guillen's squad on Chicago's South Side has it all: A strong rotation, a solid bullpen and depth among the position players. In a tight AL Central, the White Sox are the team to beat.
The AL Central has needed a 163rd game among a couple of participants to settle up the last two seasons. That won't be the case in 2010.
Minnesota has gone to the division tiebreakers the last two years, losing to the White Sox in '08 and beating the Tigers last season. It figured the Twins would be part of the race again this season, and they still may be. But breaking news today about reliever Joe Nathan having some possibly serious elbow concerns just pushes me even more strongly in the direction of the White Sox.
Aside from the one-game playoff in the ALC last year, the Dodgers' three-game bulge in the NL West was the closest division race in 2009. The Angels and Yankees won by 10 and eight games respectively; in the NL, the Phils had a six-game cushion and the Cardinals 7 ½, though St. Louis had a stronger hold on the NL Central than that number might suggest.
The AL Central is still a very fragile division top to bottom. If it had been Bobby Jenks or Jose Valverde having elbow trouble today, it would have meant the same to the White Sox and Tigers.
Kansas City and Cleveland are just as tough to rate based on their own kind of fragilities. The Royals stand a solid chance of being plus money 75 percent of the time this year, with about 90 percent of the leftover riding on the arm of one Zach Greinke. Cleveland is a team I really like on offense, and they really weren't that far below AL average last year in plating runs.
It boils down to me selling myself on the White Sox across the board very early in the offseason. Now as long as Ozzie Guillen doesn't screw things up, I'll have at least two winning tickets to cash this autumn, a ChiSox 'over' and a Blue Jays 'under.'
NOTE: Win totals and prices shown below were current at The Greek.com as of Tuesday, Mar. 9, 5 p.m. (ET)
Chicago 82½ (Over -135 / Under +115)
Avg. wins: 86.6 (High-91, Low-81)
Pick: The AL Central is not going to rank in the top-3 this season as far as divisions go, and for that reason alone I love the depth this team has. The White Sox can survive an injury here, injury there, and get by on at least the short term. I count on the team being vastly improved on offense and defense, with the sticks scoring an additional 50-75 runs from last season. And yes, I'm banking on Jake Peavy to be a big part of the rotation plus Jenks to nail down 45 or more of the one-two run ball games.
Bite the chalk and play the 'over.'
Cleveland 74½ (-115/-105)
Avg. Wins: 73.8 (High-78, Low-70)
Pick: The offense should be better than average, maybe 820 runs or more. But expecting the Indians' mound to improve leaps and bounds off a season in which they were leaps and bounds among the worst even with Cliff Lee for two-thirds of the season?
There isn't a solid reason to play Cleveland above or below the number right now, unless you think the Nathan situation in Minnesota is worth 1-2 games because of divisional play. The Indians face Minnesota just three times in the first two months of the regular season.
Detroit 81½ (+130/-150)
Avg. Wins: 81.8 (High-86, low-78)
Pick: One thing to watch for as news develops on the extent of Nathan's injury in Minnesota is the ripple effect it could have on totals in the division. Detroit takes on the Twins six times in the first 31 full days of regular season action.
I don't believe this is a particularly good defensive team, and I do not trust the bullpen, with the relief corps the main reason I don't like the Tigers to be a threat to the White Sox and/or Minnesota this year. But I like the 'over' for this team and see them winning 83-85 times at the end.
Kansas City 71½ (-110/-110)
Avg. Wins: 71.8 (High-75, Low-68)
Pick: The Royals will play the Twins six of their first 18 games. It won't matter. With the improvement in Seattle, Kansas City will finish last in the AL in scoring for 2010. There is going to be a lot of pressure on Greinke to repeat his phenomenal performance, and convention wisdom is he won't. But I do see the overall pitching numbers on the rise, just not enough to offset at least 88-89 losses.
Minnesota 82½ (OFF)
Avg. Wins: 84.0 (High-91, Low-80)
Pick: Finally, the team that is driving the division right now. The prices were 'off' when I checked at TheGreek, no doubt adjusting to the Nathan news. The 82 ½-win total had been listed with a minus 160 'over' and plus 140 under. The wins will change, at the least over the next 24 hours, and that will then shift at least some prices on other squads.
The simulation runs did not have a lot of promise in the rotation to start with. If you bought 'under' already and Minnesota's bullpen is now in flux, congratulations.
Statistical sources for this article include Baseball-Reference.com, ESPN.com, Retrosheet.org, SBRforum.com and UncleWilliesAgingMind.net.
Ozzie Guillen's squad on Chicago's South Side has it all: A strong rotation, a solid bullpen and depth among the position players. In a tight AL Central, the White Sox are the team to beat.
The AL Central has needed a 163rd game among a couple of participants to settle up the last two seasons. That won't be the case in 2010.
Minnesota has gone to the division tiebreakers the last two years, losing to the White Sox in '08 and beating the Tigers last season. It figured the Twins would be part of the race again this season, and they still may be. But breaking news today about reliever Joe Nathan having some possibly serious elbow concerns just pushes me even more strongly in the direction of the White Sox.
Aside from the one-game playoff in the ALC last year, the Dodgers' three-game bulge in the NL West was the closest division race in 2009. The Angels and Yankees won by 10 and eight games respectively; in the NL, the Phils had a six-game cushion and the Cardinals 7 ½, though St. Louis had a stronger hold on the NL Central than that number might suggest.
The AL Central is still a very fragile division top to bottom. If it had been Bobby Jenks or Jose Valverde having elbow trouble today, it would have meant the same to the White Sox and Tigers.
Kansas City and Cleveland are just as tough to rate based on their own kind of fragilities. The Royals stand a solid chance of being plus money 75 percent of the time this year, with about 90 percent of the leftover riding on the arm of one Zach Greinke. Cleveland is a team I really like on offense, and they really weren't that far below AL average last year in plating runs.
It boils down to me selling myself on the White Sox across the board very early in the offseason. Now as long as Ozzie Guillen doesn't screw things up, I'll have at least two winning tickets to cash this autumn, a ChiSox 'over' and a Blue Jays 'under.'
NOTE: Win totals and prices shown below were current at The Greek.com as of Tuesday, Mar. 9, 5 p.m. (ET)
Chicago 82½ (Over -135 / Under +115)
Avg. wins: 86.6 (High-91, Low-81)
Pick: The AL Central is not going to rank in the top-3 this season as far as divisions go, and for that reason alone I love the depth this team has. The White Sox can survive an injury here, injury there, and get by on at least the short term. I count on the team being vastly improved on offense and defense, with the sticks scoring an additional 50-75 runs from last season. And yes, I'm banking on Jake Peavy to be a big part of the rotation plus Jenks to nail down 45 or more of the one-two run ball games.
Bite the chalk and play the 'over.'
Cleveland 74½ (-115/-105)
Avg. Wins: 73.8 (High-78, Low-70)
Pick: The offense should be better than average, maybe 820 runs or more. But expecting the Indians' mound to improve leaps and bounds off a season in which they were leaps and bounds among the worst even with Cliff Lee for two-thirds of the season?
There isn't a solid reason to play Cleveland above or below the number right now, unless you think the Nathan situation in Minnesota is worth 1-2 games because of divisional play. The Indians face Minnesota just three times in the first two months of the regular season.
Detroit 81½ (+130/-150)
Avg. Wins: 81.8 (High-86, low-78)
Pick: One thing to watch for as news develops on the extent of Nathan's injury in Minnesota is the ripple effect it could have on totals in the division. Detroit takes on the Twins six times in the first 31 full days of regular season action.
I don't believe this is a particularly good defensive team, and I do not trust the bullpen, with the relief corps the main reason I don't like the Tigers to be a threat to the White Sox and/or Minnesota this year. But I like the 'over' for this team and see them winning 83-85 times at the end.
Kansas City 71½ (-110/-110)
Avg. Wins: 71.8 (High-75, Low-68)
Pick: The Royals will play the Twins six of their first 18 games. It won't matter. With the improvement in Seattle, Kansas City will finish last in the AL in scoring for 2010. There is going to be a lot of pressure on Greinke to repeat his phenomenal performance, and convention wisdom is he won't. But I do see the overall pitching numbers on the rise, just not enough to offset at least 88-89 losses.
Minnesota 82½ (OFF)
Avg. Wins: 84.0 (High-91, Low-80)
Pick: Finally, the team that is driving the division right now. The prices were 'off' when I checked at TheGreek, no doubt adjusting to the Nathan news. The 82 ½-win total had been listed with a minus 160 'over' and plus 140 under. The wins will change, at the least over the next 24 hours, and that will then shift at least some prices on other squads.
The simulation runs did not have a lot of promise in the rotation to start with. If you bought 'under' already and Minnesota's bullpen is now in flux, congratulations.
Statistical sources for this article include Baseball-Reference.com, ESPN.com, Retrosheet.org, SBRforum.com and UncleWilliesAgingMind.net.
