Toronto Blue Jays best bet in AL East
No, I haven't lost what little mind remains between my ears. The Toronto Blue Jays really are the best futures wager you can make this season in the rough-&-tumble AL East.
The results are finally in from my simulation runs for the 2010 MLB season, and I'm convinced that the numbers have been crunched enough. Time to spit out some serious projections, and no better way to do that than to start in the AL East.
Top to bottom, this isn't the best division in baseball. But 1-2, and maybe even 1-2-3, it's awfully tough to beat. I'm here to tell you that the best bet anyone can make for this division is on the Toronto Blue Jays.
To lose at least 91 games, that is.
Now remember, I'm a by-the-seat-of-my-pants recreational bettor. Baseball futures just happen to be my most favorite wager to make. I do rely on my simulations as at least a big part of my process to reach a final decision, but keep in mind that I'm not using stats from thousands of simulation runs. I ran five seasons recently, and there are certainly going to be roster changes during Spring Training and throughout the regular season.
The simulation's weakest point is that in order to make full-season runs in the time I have, there is very crude and limited in-game management. Each team gets three 'normal' sims, and one each worst-case and best-case scenario. There's a lot of human input on those two scenarios as well as the player projections. So maybe that's the true weak link of the program, as it is with any computer program.
In baseball lingo, it gives me another ballpark figure to consider before I make a wager or prediction. So that's my disclaimer.
These simulations are also what I use to make my Fantasy projections for players, if you've been following along with that. Without further ado, Part 1 of 6. Futures prices shown courtesy of TheGreek.com as of March 2.
Baltimore 73½ (Over -130 / Under +110)
Avg. wins: 72.8 (High-77, Low-70
Pick: I really like this team to finish in the mid-70s at the least, but the numbers didn't bear it out enough for me to play the 'over.' It was a mild surprise to see 77 as the top-out in the five runs. The offense averaged 750 runs in the sims, up very slightly from the 741 the O's plated last year that was 11th in the AL. And the staff allowed 822 on average, a decent decrease from the 876 that Baltimore pitchers allowed in '09.
There's a lot being made about Kevin Millwood joining the rotation and youngsters like Brad Bergeson and David Hernandez "taking the next step." But for my money, the key here will be Mike Gonzalez and the bullpen.
Boston 94½ (+100/-120)
Avg. Wins: 92.6 (High-98, Low-88)
Pick: Now one of the first things you probably notice is the Red Sox are as far below TheGreek's number as the Blue Jays as far as average wins. So why not pick Boston as a safe 'under' bet? The reason is simple: The team's too damn good and has too damn good a chance to post in the mid-90s under the 'W' column.
Like any team, a couple of key injuries to the top 4-5 arms could indeed be deadly, even for a team as talented as Boston. I'll at least follow my simulations and make this pick an 'under,' but no bet here for me.
New York 94½ (-140/+120)
Avg. Wins: 93.6 (High-101, low-89)
Pick: This is a pretty damn low number for the Yankees based on recent win totals. I've played New York 'under' the past four seasons and won three times, last year being a loser. So it's strange to see the Yanks listed at even a lower total than the team that won in '09.
The notion that the team will suffer a letdown after finally breaking that nine-year 'drought' this past season. Might be interesting to watch this number rise in the near-future.
Tampa Bay 89½ (-110/-110)
Avg. Wins: 87.8 (High-92, Low-81)
Pick: Human nature is simply too hard to overcome as it's a natural and even subconscious disposition to take that New Yorks and Boston are automatics for 1-2 in the division. That's despite this very Rays team teaching us it's a very possible outcome.
My pick is the 'under,' and I hope David Price, Wade Davis and the Tampa bullpen prove me wrong.
Toronto 71½ (-120/+100)
Avg. Wins: 69.6 (High-73, Low-64)
Pick: My apologies to Cito Gaston and Blue Jays fans for speaking so ill towards their team's prospects this season. One can only suspect they also don't like the odds that are stacked against them.
Healthy, I do like Toronto's thumpers. The Blue Jays averaged 818 runs per season in the simulations, an extra 20 runs from what they scored in 2009 when they were sixth in the AL. But Toronto also gave up 840 on average, well up from a staff that was 11th last year even with Roy Halladay. The 'under' 71.5 is what I'm playing.
Statistical sources for this article include Baseball-Reference.com, ESPN.com, Retrosheet.org, SBRforum.com and UncleWilliesAgingMind.net.
No, I haven't lost what little mind remains between my ears. The Toronto Blue Jays really are the best futures wager you can make this season in the rough-&-tumble AL East.
The results are finally in from my simulation runs for the 2010 MLB season, and I'm convinced that the numbers have been crunched enough. Time to spit out some serious projections, and no better way to do that than to start in the AL East.
Top to bottom, this isn't the best division in baseball. But 1-2, and maybe even 1-2-3, it's awfully tough to beat. I'm here to tell you that the best bet anyone can make for this division is on the Toronto Blue Jays.
To lose at least 91 games, that is.
Now remember, I'm a by-the-seat-of-my-pants recreational bettor. Baseball futures just happen to be my most favorite wager to make. I do rely on my simulations as at least a big part of my process to reach a final decision, but keep in mind that I'm not using stats from thousands of simulation runs. I ran five seasons recently, and there are certainly going to be roster changes during Spring Training and throughout the regular season.
The simulation's weakest point is that in order to make full-season runs in the time I have, there is very crude and limited in-game management. Each team gets three 'normal' sims, and one each worst-case and best-case scenario. There's a lot of human input on those two scenarios as well as the player projections. So maybe that's the true weak link of the program, as it is with any computer program.
In baseball lingo, it gives me another ballpark figure to consider before I make a wager or prediction. So that's my disclaimer.
These simulations are also what I use to make my Fantasy projections for players, if you've been following along with that. Without further ado, Part 1 of 6. Futures prices shown courtesy of TheGreek.com as of March 2.
Baltimore 73½ (Over -130 / Under +110)
Avg. wins: 72.8 (High-77, Low-70
Pick: I really like this team to finish in the mid-70s at the least, but the numbers didn't bear it out enough for me to play the 'over.' It was a mild surprise to see 77 as the top-out in the five runs. The offense averaged 750 runs in the sims, up very slightly from the 741 the O's plated last year that was 11th in the AL. And the staff allowed 822 on average, a decent decrease from the 876 that Baltimore pitchers allowed in '09.
There's a lot being made about Kevin Millwood joining the rotation and youngsters like Brad Bergeson and David Hernandez "taking the next step." But for my money, the key here will be Mike Gonzalez and the bullpen.
Boston 94½ (+100/-120)
Avg. Wins: 92.6 (High-98, Low-88)
Pick: Now one of the first things you probably notice is the Red Sox are as far below TheGreek's number as the Blue Jays as far as average wins. So why not pick Boston as a safe 'under' bet? The reason is simple: The team's too damn good and has too damn good a chance to post in the mid-90s under the 'W' column.
Like any team, a couple of key injuries to the top 4-5 arms could indeed be deadly, even for a team as talented as Boston. I'll at least follow my simulations and make this pick an 'under,' but no bet here for me.
New York 94½ (-140/+120)
Avg. Wins: 93.6 (High-101, low-89)
Pick: This is a pretty damn low number for the Yankees based on recent win totals. I've played New York 'under' the past four seasons and won three times, last year being a loser. So it's strange to see the Yanks listed at even a lower total than the team that won in '09.
The notion that the team will suffer a letdown after finally breaking that nine-year 'drought' this past season. Might be interesting to watch this number rise in the near-future.
Tampa Bay 89½ (-110/-110)
Avg. Wins: 87.8 (High-92, Low-81)
Pick: Human nature is simply too hard to overcome as it's a natural and even subconscious disposition to take that New Yorks and Boston are automatics for 1-2 in the division. That's despite this very Rays team teaching us it's a very possible outcome.
My pick is the 'under,' and I hope David Price, Wade Davis and the Tampa bullpen prove me wrong.
Toronto 71½ (-120/+100)
Avg. Wins: 69.6 (High-73, Low-64)
Pick: My apologies to Cito Gaston and Blue Jays fans for speaking so ill towards their team's prospects this season. One can only suspect they also don't like the odds that are stacked against them.
Healthy, I do like Toronto's thumpers. The Blue Jays averaged 818 runs per season in the simulations, an extra 20 runs from what they scored in 2009 when they were sixth in the AL. But Toronto also gave up 840 on average, well up from a staff that was 11th last year even with Roy Halladay. The 'under' 71.5 is what I'm playing.
Statistical sources for this article include Baseball-Reference.com, ESPN.com, Retrosheet.org, SBRforum.com and UncleWilliesAgingMind.net.
