Has anyone included umpires home and away team win % in their capping? Thinking about finding home teams I like and then narrowing them down by umpires with a high home win team %.
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I don't know how relevant home/away stats are unless you break down each game. If an ump consistently gets the yanks/red sox/etc at home or if he gets halladay/santana/etc at home, then its not surprising at all for him to have a high home win %Comment -
very trueComment -
Yes, but the hard part is finding out who the umps are before the market reacts.Comment -
i dont think this would work consistently enough to make it worth your timeComment -
i believe in checking out the umpires and the crews for all the games . the crews rotate every game and you can find all that info at a couple places like covers.com . i think its a helpful resource esp if you play totalsComment -
Umpires I will look at to help more with over/under.Comment -
IMO umps are of, at most, minimal importance. When I looked into statistical data on ups back in '06 I found that no umpire consistently from season to season correlated with either higher or lower totals.Comment -
When Kulpa was behind the plate from 06 - 08 the home team won over 63% of the time and as I as 69% one of the years.Comment -
So you're saying that I'm lying about the data that I looked at. Hmmm....
There was an article at either BP or Hard Ball Times (don't remember which) that found the same thing as me a couple months after I did the research.
I think it's likely that something you saw as relevant I dismissed as irrelevant (probably because I thought it was either not repeatable or it had massive sample size issues).Comment -
This alone doesn't mean that betting the home team is a good bet when he's behind the plate. Just from random statistical noise you would expect an ump to show numbers like this over a short period of time. What would be surprising is if looking back on the data no ump displayed numbers like these.
Anecdotally, betting the home team when this guy umps makes no sense either... do you really think this guy is being persuaded by the crowd to subconsciously root for the home team?
Additionally, ump numbers have major sample size issues.Comment -
Mark Carlson's last 6 years - Runs per game
2009 - 8.10 rpg
2008 - 5.00 rpg (1 game)
2007 - 8.88 rpg
2006 - 9.06 rpg
2005 - 8.03 rpg
2004 - 8.86 rpg
Jerry Crawford's last 6 years - Runs per game
2009 - 10.40 rpg
2008 - 11.00 rpg
2007 - 10.19 rpg
2006 - 12.12 rpg
2005 - 9.68 rpg
2004 - 10.14 rpg
Thats not a 6 year coincidence. Carlson has a much bigger zone than Crawford which translates into less runs and a lot more Unders for Carlson. This is just one example of many.Comment -
In case y'all missed this. Will be interesting to see if this really changes anything. Could it cause some umps to improve, while others are simply more nervous and possibly less decisive leading to more 'blue conferences'? The article does rehash some problems with a few bigger names *cough*Bucknor*cough*McClelland*cough* that have had troubles in the past. It may be out already and I just haven't gotten around to looking at it, but I'm keen to find out the actual crew assignments for the coming season.
After a tumultuous postseason for umpires, Major League Baseball has shaken up the roster of supervisors entrusted with evaluating umpire performance.
Veteran umpires Randy Marsh and Charlie Reliford have retired and taken jobs as supervisors, and former supervisors Marty Springstead, Jim McKean and Rich Garcia were not retained, MLB executive vice president Rob Manfred confirmed to ESPN.com on Saturday.
Manfred, who oversees labor relations and human resources for MLB, said baseball is "always looking to make sure we have the best group of supervisors available." He cited three reasons for the changes.
"Because of early retirement, there were some quality people like Randy Marsh who became available to us," Manfred said. "When things go less than perfectly -- as they did in the postseason -- you're going to think about making changes. And part of it is just the natural turnover in an organization. It's no more complicated than that."
MLB umpires landed in the middle of several controversies because of missed calls in October. One of the most egregious came in the Division Series, when Phil Cuzzi ruled that a drive to left field by Twins catcher Joe Mauer was foul when the ball clearly landed in fair territory.
In Game 4 of the American League Championship Series, umpire Tim McClelland mistakenly ruled that Yankees outfielder Nick Swisher left too soon on a sacrifice fly. McClelland also missed a double play when Angels catcher Mike Napoli tagged out New York baserunners Jorge Posada and Robinson Cano at third base.
Umpire C.B. Bucknor came under criticism for some missed calls at first base during the Division Series between the Red Sox and Angels, and Phillies second baseman Chase Utley was credited with an infield hit against Colorado even though the ball struck his leg in the batter's box.
The October misplays led to calls for expanded use of instant replay. At their annual meetings in November, baseball's general managers declined to vote on expanded use of replay. But commissioner Bud Selig has encouraged his new 14-member committee of managers and baseball executives to discuss the topic and report back to him.
"I've encouraged this group to be very blunt, talk about anything they want," Selig said in January.
The World Umpires Association reached agreement with baseball on a new five-year labor agreement in January, and the deal reportedly gave Selig greater flexibility to dictate expanded use of replay.
Springstead had been an umpiring supervisor since 2000, while Garcia and McKean went to work for MLB in 2002.
Marsh, 60, had been a major league umpire since 1981 and appeared in five World Series. Reliford, 53, was an MLB umpire since 1989.
In September 2008, Reliford was crew chief at the first major league game where instant replay was used to settle a disputed home run call. Third base umpire Brian Runge ruled that an Alex Rodriguez fly ball over the left field foul pole was a home run. Tampa Bay manager Joe Maddon contested the homer, but a replay review determined that Runge had made the correct call.Comment -
i never understood that rule about ump crews in the series. the best umps (based on an evaulation of career performances in the reg. season and post season) should always work the series. i hope that stipulation was changedComment
