Uncle Willie's Fantasy Baseball Musings

[Willie Bee]

Fantasy baseball season drawing near

Millions of Fantasy baseball players are preparing for another season following boxscores and the stats. And I'm among the millions.

The wet winter across most of Texas promises to pay off for wildflower lovers. Bluebonnets, Paintbrushes, Daisies and Mexican Poppies, to name just a few, will be in bloom along miles and miles of Lone Star highways. And they should be abundant about five weeks from now when I'm driving north to my big fantasy draft.



This will be the 27th year for this particular league, and most folks look at me as if I'm crazy being in one league that long. Crazy or full of it.

Then I tell them that one of the guys in this league is someone I played a form of fantasy baseball with back in the 60s when we'd wager our milk money at school.

Fantasy sports has been around going back longer than you think and encompasses the globe. One of the guys in my old baseball league has been playing fantasy cricket since he lived in the UK in the early-90s. There are serious players. There are recreational players. There is money to be won by both.

There is also a 'ton of luck' involved with many league outcomes reminding me of the old adage about falling into a pile of manure and finding a gold watch. The old saying about being in the wrong place at the wrong time also comes to mind. Trust me as I've had it both ways many times over the course of my 'fantasy career.' My squad in the old league will be gunning for its eighth title, and first since we started head-to-head competition in 2004. As much as I like to think I know about the game of baseball, fantasy baseball is something that can be successfully played by someone who has never seen the real game played on a field.

It looks like the 2010 season will find me playing in four leagues, each one very different though obviously they all depend on boxscore stats. The 'old league' is a 16-team, AL/NL, head-to-head. It's a money league, costing each squad anywhere from about $110-$180 per season on average, and the best part is we've managed to raise about $30,000 for a charity since the mid-to-late 90s and still make it profitable for the winner. Plus we're old guys; there will be grandchildren making picks at our draft this season, for crying out loud! So what do we care?

One league will be a six-team league, with each owner assigned one of the MLB divisions for his player universe. There's also a 'typical Yahoo 12-team h2h league' and a 10-team NL-only rotisserie group.

No single strategy exists that is guaranteed to win, just like betting moneylines, run lines and totals. Still, there are some general rules to follow so that you can avoid at least some of the embarrassment and humiliation that will be heaped upon you by your league when you do something really, really stupid.




Here are Uncle Willie's five rules when it comes to playing fantasy baseball:

1. Playing for fun. Understand that this is the only part of the fantasy sports game you have any control over.
2. Playing for money. I strongly recommend this, even if it's just for a few bucks.
3. Early bird catches the worm. Be on top of the post-draft changes you need to make for your roster. The first 3-4 hours after a draft can be important, much less the first 3-4 weeks of the season.
4. Live drafts. In person is the best, but live drafts with everyone picking at once does more to insure parity in a fantasy league than anything else a league can do.
5. Cold beer, cocktails. All live drafts should include the consumption of alcohol. And hot dogs, can't forget the hot dogs.

[Willie Bee]

Joe Mauer, Victor Martinez top fantasy baseball catcher list

If you are in a keeper league then chances are you have no shot at either of the two top catchers for your team, unless you happen to be the keeper yourself.

One of the teams that made it to the finals in my old league last year had Joe Mauer on his team, and I suspect that a lot of fantasy playoff teams had the Twins catcher on their roster.


Minnesota's backstop had arguably the greatest single season by any catcher in my lifetime that dates back to General Eisenhower's early days residing at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. Mauer led everybody, not just catchers, with his .365 batting average, ranked first among catchers in homers (28) and runs scored (94), and was second in RBI with 96. A dozen more ribbies and he could've won the quadruple crown for the position.

Victor Martinez and his 108 runs batted in kept Mauer from sweeping the board, and the Red Sox catcher will join his contemporary from the Twins as very high draft picks in fantasy leagues this season. That is if they're not already being held over as keeper or contract players for the renewing leagues.

The catcher position in fantasy drafts is always a bit strange. In the 'old days' you would never see a catcher being drafted very high. Even some of the better guys in the 1980s – Gary Carter, Lance Parrish to name two – were never round 1 picks. What you hear each preseason in fantasy publications is the old line about a "catcher run," and that was true 15, 20 years ago. But then along came Mike Piazza and suddenly the position had a true, big bopper.

Truth is, depending on each league's setup there are "position runs" that occur during each draft at several defensive slots on the field. So don't buy into anyone pressuring you that you gotta' get a catcher or anything else right now because two or three have been selected ahead of you in a specific round.

As good as Martinez' overall numbers are, Mauer is still head-&-shoulders ahead. He's happy in Minnesota, where he wants to be, and going to be a rich young man. There is the concern with some of his injuries, especially the back trouble, and how that will affect him as a catcher long-term. But there are health concerns for any catcher. And when you can get a guy that is so much better than everyone else at his position, you have a big leg up on your competition.

If I had the chance for the No. 1 pick in my league this year with all players available, Mauer would be my man. No, he's not going to hit 40+ homers like an Albert Pujols, Ryan Howard or Prince Fielder or Mark Teixeira. But when it's your turn in Round 2 to make a choice, you will have a 30+ HR stick to grab and the quick the teams that do select from the deep 1B position in the opening round are going to be picking up Ryan Doumit, Rod Barajas or Dioner Navarro to be their catchers later in the draft.

If you have already kept a catcher or you have a shot to pick one of the top-8 or so at the position, go ahead and grab the backup with your last pick if you can. If you take a mid-level catcher in your draft, don't bother with their backup.

Here are some catcher broken down into three groups. I tend to think of all players as being either early rounders (1-4), middle rounders (5-10) or late rounders (11+). The first thing to do if you're in a keeper league is to list the positions already kept in your league. That way you know how many starting catchers or any other position is needed so you can narrow down your own list at every spot on the field. If there are 12 teams in your league and three catchers are being held over, at least get a list of your top-9 and stick to that list during your draft. Don't listen to any of the BS your 'buddies' are feeding you during a live draft.

Oh, and since there were only 100 stolen bases total by all 106 catcher who qualify at the position based on 2009 stats, I'm not projecting steals for this position.

EARLY ROUNDS
Joe Mauer - .340, 25 HR, 100 RBI, 100 Runs
Victor Martinez - .290, 30 HR, 100 RBI, 85 Runs
Brian McCann - .290, 25 HR, 100 RBI, 70 Runs

MIDDLE ROUNDS
Matt Wieters: .290, 15 HR, 85 RBI, 65 Runs
Kurt Suzuki: .280, 15 HR, 80 RBI, 70 Runs
Miguel Montero: .280, 15 HR, 75 RBI, 70 Runs
Mike Napoli: .275, 20 HR, 70 RBI, 65 Runs
John Baker: .280, 15 HR, 60 RBI, 65 Runs
Bengie Molina: .275, 15 HR, 70 RBI, 55 Runs
Jorge Posada: .270, 15 HR, 75 RBI, 55 Runs
* Geovany Soto: .270, 15 HR, 70 RBI, 50 Runs; Every draft seems to have at least one Cubs fan, plus Soto is just a year removed from an incredible season. So I'm stopping short of calling this a 'sleeper pick.' He should bounce back with at least mid-round stats.

LATE ROUNDERS (in no particular order)
A.J. Pierzynski: .290, 10 HR, 55 RBI, 55 Runs
Russell Martin: .260, 10 HR, 55 RBI, 55 Runs
Ryan Doumit: .260, 15 HR, 50 RBI, 50 Runs
Jarrod Saltalamacchia: .250, 15 HR, 50 RBI, 50 Runs
Yadier Molina: .280, 5 HR, 55 RBI, 50 Runs

[DeluxeLiner]

Good writeups willy. Looks like I might be forced into a fantasy this season.

[Willie Bee]

2B

Chase Utley, Ian Kinsler lead deep second base for 2010

The second base position is deep for the upcoming fantasy season, with no fewer than nine early round picks to choose from starting with Chase Utley and Ian Kinsler.

Fantasy players in 10-12 team leagues should have plenty of second sackers to choose from this year with the position boasting great depth entering the campaign. The list begins with Chase Utley and Ian Kinsler, and includes at least seven more high-round picks for players.


Utley is coming off a 31-homer, 23-steal season for the Phillies last year, tossing in 93 RBI and 112 runs, second among second basemen in that category. Kinsler had a 31-31 (HR-SB) season for the Rangers who figure to be even better in 2010. Funny thing is while these two are at the top of many 2B draft lists going into the season, neither finished in the top-20 in batting average which is still widely followed in fantasy circles. They're even more valuable in teams keeping OB% or OPS columns.

Behind that duo are several more 25+ HR sticks to consider, with Aaron Hill leading that list following a 36-HR season for the Jays in 2009. Ben Zobrist (27), Robinson Cano (25), Dan Uggla (31) and Jose Lopez (25) also fall into the midfielder power group, and all have the potential to be even better in 2010.

One thing to watch for at this position will be players who qualify at second and will be picked for other slots. Zobrist is very likely going to be used as a shortstop in your leagues; in fact, you could grab Zobrist and one of the other power-hitting second basemen to form a very strong middle of the fantasy diamond.

Gordon Beckham goes the other way with his impending move from third to second for the White Sox. Ian Stewart, expected to play 3B this year in Colorado, qualifies at second per Yahoo rules and could get snatched up to play 2B and provide 25 HR at the position. Placido Polanco will eventually provide 2B-3B eligibility and give a team more options.

There are also some spring battles to watch before you make your final list. One name to keep an eye on is Scott Sizemore in Detroit. He has the promise to eventually join the 20+ HR group, but will have growing pains and is currently coming back from some ankle surgery meaning he could miss the starting gate. The Cubs will be deciding between Jeff Baker or Mike Fontenot, or a platoon which is deadly in fantasy leagues.

I count nine early round picks from this position. The drop behind that bunch is sharp, but there are some decent sleepers outside the top guns.

EARLY ROUNDS
Chase Utley: .287, 27 HR, 90 RBI, 102 Runs, 26 SB
Ian Kinsler: .271, 29 HR, 94 RBI, 96 Runs, 29 SB
Aaron Hill: .291, 34 HR, 111 RBI, 92 Runs, 4 SB
Ben Zobrist: .294, 26 HR, 86 RBI, 97 Runs, 21 SB
Dustin Pedroia: .313, 14 HR, 68 RBI, 109 Runs, 24 SB
Robinson Cano: .315, 28 HR, 83 RBI, 107 Runs, 3 SB
Brandon Phillips: .278, 21 HR, 91 RBI, 74 Runs, 28 SB
Dan Uggla: .259, 34 HR, 89 RBI, 84 Runs, 0 SB
Brian Roberts: .294, 12 HR, 73 RBI, 103 Runs, 28 SB

MIDDLE ROUNDS
Jose Lopez: .278, 27 HR, 93 RBI, 76 Runs, 2 SB
Clint Barmes: .261, 26 HR, 84 RBI, 78 Runs, 14 SB
Ronnie Belliard: .281, 13 HR, 67 RBI, 59 Runs
Alberto Callaspo: .292, 16 HR, 80 RBI, 83 Runs, 5 SB
Rickie Weeks: .274, 17 HR, 75 RBI, 81 Runs, 8 SB - Will this guy ever have a full season? I think he will this time around, making him something of a sleeper in the middle rounds.

LATE ROUNDS
Howie Kendrick: .294, 12 HR, 70 RBI, 74 Runs, 15 SB
Kelly Johnson: .273, 15 HR, 67 RBI, 65 Runs, 10 SB
Orlando Hudson: .287, 10 HR, 65 RBI, 85 Runs, 14 SB
Adam Kennedy: .281, 12 HR, 60 RBI, 72 Runs, 22 SB
Luis Valbuena: .261, 15 HR, 68 RBI, 67 Runs, 5 SB - If he can find his way to the plate for 450+ AB, I'm excited for this kid as a solid late-round pick in drafts.

[HotStreak]

Had a Reyes question, but I'll wait for your SS's to come out.

I just organized a Yahoo 5x5 H2H baseball league last year. This year we have 12 managers. $200 entry. When you break it down over the entire season, it's the most economical way to enjoy an entire sports season.

I've been in a Fantasy Football league since 1991. 7 of the 12 managers have been there since the start. I hope someday we have grand kids making draft picks.

Good times.

[Boner_18]

This is great willie. I just got the info for my annual league.

[Willie Bee]

Outfielders

Ryan Braun, Adam Lind top 2010 fantasy outfield charts

The cream of the outfield crop is easy to find with names like Ryan Braun and Adam Lind leading the way. But the trick with outfielders is finding that late gem in your draft.

Lots of names to cover here, and I'm going to switch this up and do things a little differently because of the huge quantity of outfielders to consider.

If you need help listing guys like Ryan Braun, Adam Lind, Jacoby Ellsbury and Matt Holliday high on your list then you need more help than I or anyone else can provide.

Like any other position you need to break it down to how many will be needed in your league, subtract the keepers, and be left with the total you need to focus on. You will see five true outfielders per fantasy team in most setups, so work from there.

Below are 45 names or so broken up again into thirds. But there are five more outfielders that you need to think about once you get deep into your draft. Not all of these guys will make it past the middle rounds of your draft; in fact, it's my belief that all should be considered for mid-level selections in front of several bigger names below.



Andrew McCutchen starts my list with Nyjer Morgan second on the chart, and it's really a shame we didn't get to see the Pirates outfield develop with both of these guys in it. McCutchen seems a lock for 20-30 stats, and if things go the way they have in Pittsburgh recently he will be the 'next-great Pirate' to be dealt to a contender during the 2013 season.

Morgan is that player you grab in Round 10 because you have completely forgotten about stolen bases during your draft. I see 60+ steals for the Nats' outfielder in 2010.

Dexter Fowler definitely isn't going to make your late rounds, especially if there are any Colorado fans in your league. He should be a big part of what figures to be a great all-around offense for the Rockies in 2010. Should score 100+ and steal 30-40.

Nolan Reimold and Luke Scott, a pair of Orioles teammates, finish off my five. Scott, if he does indeed reach that 135-game plateau, is a solid 30-HR candidate to find from rounds 8-9 or later in your draft.

I love Reimold to develop this year in the shadows of Adam Jones, Matt Weiters and Nick Markakis. Pencil in 24-27 homers, a .290 average and 75 RBI for the kid.

EARLY ROUNDS (1-3)
Ryan Braun
Adam Lind
Carl Crawford
Matt Kemp
Matt Holliday
Ichiro Suzuki
Adam Dunn
Manny Ramirez
Jacoby Ellsbury
Jayson Werth
Justin Upton
Jason Bay
Jason Kubel
Nelson Cruz
Shin-Soo Choo: .307 / 27 HR / 95 RBI / 92 Runs / 24 SB: Should be one of the few bright spots for an Indians squad with a dismal outlook, and playing for long term contract that might be his 'pass' out of some required military service back in Korea.

MIDDLE ROUNDS (4-7)
Michael Cuddyer
Carlos Gonzalez
Andre Ethier
Alfonso Soriano
Raul Ibañez
Bobby Abreu
Denard Span
Nick Markakis
Torii Hunter
Grady Sizemore
Nate McLouth
Hunter Pence
Brad Hawpe
Josh Hamilton
Carlos Lee
Adam Jones
Vladimir Guerrero
Carlos Beltran
Julio Borbon: .289 / 12 HR / 52 RBI / 100 Runs, 56 SB - Has all the potential in the Rangers lineup to score 100 and steal 50+.

MIDDLE-TO-LATE ROUNDS (9+)
Alex Rios
Magglio Ordoñez
Curtis Granderson
Ryan Ludwick
Cody Ross
Nick Swisher
Hideki Matsui
Shane Victorino
Mike Cameron
Michael Bourn
Jermaine Dye
B.J. Upton
J.D. Drew
Rajai Davis .308 / 4 HR / 55 RBI / 90 Runs / 58 SB - This guy will be high on the keen player's radar, think of him as a great fit for any team once they are looking for outfielder No. 3.

[Just Enough]

hey willie, frst off, very nice writeups. i'm in a dynasty league and was just looking over your outfield rankings. what's your take on jay bruce and jeff francouer. my outfield exists of fowler/reimold/granderson/soriano/bruce/francouer. thanks for your input.

[stealthyburrito]

i think wieters could be the best value catcher here. he developed quicker than expected, hit over .300 after the break (.362 in september), and most promising for the O's, he hit over .400 vs. the Bosox and Rays.