on3's MLB 2025 Opening Day System

[grecycle99]

UPDATED for 05/01/2025

System(s) record Chase :

Regular system: 40-0; Profit: 28.06 units
Filtered System: 8-0; Profit: 3.76 units
5/2 chase: 4-0; profit: 17 units

Total (3 systems) : 52-0; Profit: 48.82 unit (Series chase lost : )

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)

Game 1 (A) win = 26-14; 4-3; 3-1
Game 2 (B) win = 8-6; 3-1; 1-0
Game 3 (C) win = 6-0; 1-0

Labby Line (20$ = 1unit)
(A) 5 * 47.46
(B)
(C) 2 * 47.46

REGULAR FOR 05/01/2025

(A) San Francisco RL -104 to win 4.75U
(C) Tampa Bay -159 to win 4.75U

Filtered

No Play

5/2

No Play

[Deenoz]

@J.M.D interesting take on the labby line.
so instead of playing to win 2 outside #'s on the line you are only playing to win 1 #?
all games are on 1 line?
no separate lines for games A,B,C?

[grecycle99]

UPDATED for 04/30/2025

System(s) record Chase :

Regular system: 40-0; Profit: 28.06 units
Filtered System: 8-0; Profit: 3.76 units
5/2 chase: 4-0; profit: 17 units

Total (3 systems) : 52-0; Profit: 48.82 unit (Series chase lost : )

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)

Game 1 (A) win = 26-14; 4-3; 3-1
Game 2 (B) win = 8-6; 3-1; 1-0
Game 3 (C) win = 6-0; 1-0

Labby Line (20$ = 1unit)
(A) 3 * 39.85
(B) 2 * 39.85
(C)

REGULAR FOR 04/30/2025

(B) Tampa Bay -154 to win 3.99U

Filtered

No Play

5/2

No Play

[grecycle99]

UPDATED for 04/29/2025

System(s) record Chase :

Regular system: 40-0; Profit: 28.06 units
Filtered System: 8-0; Profit: 3.76 units
5/2 chase: 4-0; profit: 17 units

Total (3 systems) : 52-0; Profit: 48.82 unit (Series chase lost : )

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)

Game 1 (A) win = 26-14; 4-3; 3-1
Game 2 (B) win = 8-6; 3-1; 1-0
Game 3 (C) win = 6-0; 1-0

Labby Line (20$ = 1unit)
(A) 6 * 28.36
(B) 2 * 28.36
(C)

REGULAR FOR 04/29/2025

(A) Philadelphia -185 to win 2.84U
(A) Tampa Bay -151 to win 2.84U
(B) LA Dodgers RL +103 to win 2.84U

Filtered

No Play

5/2

No Play

[Tomatero]

What is metodot?

I mean Strategy Method.

[J.M. Disciple]

On the 25th the A games were 1.48 units each. All the series won and the system is at peak profit.
Now on the next set of series the A-bets are starting at 2.39 units, doesn't seem right.

52-0 on the series with 48.82 units in profit.
The labby is 7*23.87 which is 8.35 units in play. If the line clears it means the system is making more than 1 unit per series!
I think too much money is being added to the line.

I think at most being Dogers are the 53rd series there should only be 4.18 units on the line, so when the line clears it would be +53 units with 53 completed series.

I listed my way of doing it above, but if people don't want to do it that way, I would at least stop adding more money to the line. If the current line is 23.87 * 7 and IF we had 4 games today just make the line 20.88 * 8 instead of adding additional half unit to the line for each number you add to the line. If the line is bloated like $60 x 4 where we are supposed to bet 6 units a game. If we have 4 games just make it $30 x 8 rather than adding additional 2 units to the line.

[J.M. Disciple]

im agree with your metodot,cheers buddy.

What is metodot?

[takethepnts]

Thanks Grecycle .

[grecycle99]

UPDATED for 04/28/2025

System(s) record Chase :

Regular system: 40-0; Profit: 28.06 units
Filtered System: 8-0; Profit: 3.76 units
5/2 chase: 4-0; profit: 17 units

Total (3 systems) : 52-0; Profit: 48.82 unit (Series chase lost : )

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)

Game 1 (A) win = 26-14; 4-3; 3-1
Game 2 (B) win = 8-6; 3-1; 1-0
Game 3 (C) win = 6-0; 1-0

Labby Line (20$ = 1unit)
(A) 7 * 23.87
(B)
(C)

REGULAR FOR 04/28/2025

(A) LA Dodgers RL -139 to win 2.39U

Filtered

No Play

5/2

No Play

[daneault23]

the problem is that when you have already placed your bet and the line changes, many books do not allow you to close. The other way is to wait to see the line closing, but also, it is often not possible to keep an eye on the line.

In the case of the White Sox/A's series there were a few SP changes for the White Sox. They have a usual starter, but switched to having an opener for the 1st inning so the starter is actually the guy who throws the 1st pitch even though he only pitches 1 inning. 2nd inning starts and the regular starter comes in and pitches the majority of the rest of the game. I think this was also cause of some downward line movement, changing a RL play to ML play but who knows.

On my book, many of the RL bets once chosen - are locked into the listed pitchers so if there are changes to the SP later on then the bet is void. This actually happened to me with the A bet of that series, but it worked out in my favor there since the A's only won by 1 run. Definitely tricky.

[Tomatero]

i'm glad they turned into a m/l play!!

the problem is that when you have already placed your bet and the line changes, many books do not allow you to close. The other way is to wait to see the line closing, but also, it is often not possible to keep an eye on the line.

[Tomatero]

regular for 04/25/2025

(a) athletics rl -122 to win 1.48u = loss 1.8u
(a) chicago cubs -152 to win 1.48u = win
(a) la dodgers rl +114 to win 1.48u = loss 1.3u
(a) minnesota rl +110 to win 1.48u = win
(a) seattle rl -133 to win 1.48u = loss 1.97u

total: -2.11u

i'll keep the same starting unit size of 1.48 per game.
Line: 1.48 x 5 +2.11 units in losses
this 1.48 x 5 line is 7.4 units + 2.11 units = 9.51 units / 5 for the next day

regular for 04/26/2025

9.51 / 5 = bet to win 1.9u per game

(b) athletics rl -103 to win 2.16u............... risking 1.96 to win 1.90
(b) la dodgers rl -130 to win 2.16u........... risking 2.47 to win 1.90
(b) seattle rl -101 to win 2.16u ...................risking 1.92 to win 1.90

daily profit: 1.84u

now take the 9.51 units on the line minus the 1.84 units you won and now you have a new line of 7.67 / 5 for the next day.

regular for 04/27/2025

(c) athletics -182 to win 2.62u............2.78 to win 1.53

so over these 3 days
25th - 2.11 units
26th +1.84 units
27th +1.53 units
total profit: +1.26 units
biggest wager is 2.47 units.

Compared to having 4.77 units at risk on oak today. And this is only for the regular system. The double and triple dipping on filtered and 5/2 system is bananas. The 2023 season is an example of what i'm talking about unless you have a 1,000 units as your bankroll and even that was at risk that season!

All i did was keep 5 units on the line at all times. And add or subtract the loss each day. This leads to less profit, but also the risk of ruin is minimal. Every season the current method will at some point have 10-20 unit bets at risk for each game. My method might only have half the profit, but you won't jeopardize your bankroll. Also if you reach peak profit where the line drops below $100 / 5 then you start with a fresh line. This way a bets are just 1 unit.

When i get some time in may i'll make some graphs for the current method to show the swings compared to the 1 line method with 5 units on it. Can compare the profits of the two strategies. My method will have more of a plateau and small upswings. But it will have very little downhill.

With all series clear and peak profit, i highly suggest changing the method going forward where you guys are not risking 10+ units on a game where you are already at peak profit.

I'm not knocking the system or trying to be disrespectful in anyway. Just trying to help people manage the risk a bit better. I appreciate the daily post! Thank you

im agree with your metodot,cheers buddy.

[skyscrapers]

Welp A's pulled it out with a walkoff in extra innings. Have to think our luck of late inning comebacks will start to turn at some point, but holding my breath for now

I'm glad they turned into a M/L play!!

[daneault23]

Welp A's pulled it out with a walkoff in extra innings. Have to think our luck of late inning comebacks will start to turn at some point, but holding my breath for now

[J.M. Disciple]

REGULAR FOR 04/25/2025

(A) Athletics RL -122 to win 1.48U = loss 1.8u
(A) Chicago Cubs -152 to win 1.48U = win
(A) LA Dodgers RL +114 to win 1.48U = loss 1.3u
(A) Minnesota RL +110 to win 1.48U = win
(A) Seattle RL -133 to win 1.48U = loss 1.97u

Total: -2.11u

I'll keep the same starting unit size of 1.48 per game.
Line: 1.48 x 5 +2.11 units in losses
This 1.48 x 5 line is 7.4 units + 2.11 units = 9.51 units / 5 for the next day

REGULAR FOR 04/26/2025

9.51 / 5 = bet to win 1.9u per game

(B) Athletics RL -103 to win 2.16U............... Risking 1.96 to win 1.90
(B) LA Dodgers RL -130 to win 2.16U........... Risking 2.47 to win 1.90
(B) Seattle RL -101 to win 2.16U ...................Risking 1.92 to win 1.90

Daily profit: 1.84u

Now take the 9.51 units on the line minus the 1.84 units you won and now you have a new line of 7.67 / 5 for the next day.

REGULAR FOR 04/27/2025

(C) Athletics -182 to win 2.62U............2.78 To win 1.53

So over these 3 days
25th - 2.11 units
26th +1.84 units
27th +1.53 units
Total profit: +1.26 units
Biggest wager is 2.47 units.

Compared to having 4.77 units at risk on Oak today. And this is only for the regular system. The double and triple dipping on filtered and 5/2 system is bananas. The 2023 season is an example of what I'm talking about unless you have a 1,000 units as your bankroll and even that was at risk that season!

All I did was keep 5 units on the line at all times. And add or subtract the loss each day. This leads to less profit, but also the risk of ruin is minimal. Every season the current method will at some point have 10-20 unit bets at risk for each game. My method might only have half the profit, but you won't jeopardize your bankroll. Also if you reach peak profit where the line drops below $100 / 5 then you start with a fresh line. This way A bets are just 1 unit.

When I get some time in May I'll make some graphs for the current method to show the swings compared to the 1 line method with 5 units on it. Can compare the profits of the two strategies. My method will have more of a plateau and small upswings. But it will have very little downhill.

With all series clear and peak profit, I highly suggest changing the method going forward where you guys are not risking 10+ units on a game where you are already at peak profit.

I'm not knocking the system or trying to be disrespectful in anyway. Just trying to help people manage the risk a bit better. I appreciate the daily post! Thank you

[J.M. Disciple]

I appreciate all the plays being posted and the consistency of it. I want to say this system is on a path of destruction down the road the way the games and money is being managed. I shared in previous seasons how to manage the line in a lot safer way and compared them side by side. I don't have time to do it currently with the odds and all the plays this season, but if you look at the fact the system reached peak profit on the 25th at +45 units for all systems combined, then the A bets were still betting to win roughly 1.5 units each! That is a serious problem!

If the system is at peak profit, the bets should not be increasing! We are at peak profit and yet have 12 units at risk on the A's? Does that make any sense at all?

On average there are not more than 5 games on any give day. All you have to do is take a line of
$20-$20-$20-$20-$20 and avg out the line each day. You don't have to cross 2 and 1 one each day or add additional units to your line when there are not enough #s on the line. The bets shouldn't be getting bigger on winning days.

I'll make one more post after this using the current series to compare my method with the current method to show you the difference. The risk of ruin is way too high with the current method.

[skyscrapers]

A's have dropped significantly down to a M/L play now. That's not a good sign.

[daneault23]

2 C bets along with a 5/2 B bet today all on the Athletics. God please help us as they've looked pretty bad lately, not sure why they've been such big favs.

[grecycle99]

UPDATED for 04/27/2025

System(s) record Chase :

Regular system: 35-0; Profit: 25.65 units
Filtered System: 7-0; Profit: 5.18 units
5/2 chase: 3-0; profit: 15 units

Total (3 systems) : 45-0; Profit: 45.83 unit (Series chase lost : )

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)

Game 1 (A) win = 24-11; 4-3; 3-0
Game 2 (B) win = 6-4; 3-0; 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 5-0; 0-0

Labby Line (20$ = 1unit)
(A) 6 * 26.18
(B)
(C) 4 * 26.18

REGULAR FOR 04/27/2025

(C) Athletics -182 to win 2.62U

Filtered

(C) Athletics -182 to win 2.62U

5/2

(B) Athletics -182 to win 7.15U

[takethepnts]

Unfortunately I did! Ho hum!

I've missed some wins be being late and I've missed a few losses. Sorry for the luck on this one for you ... I think they would be a RL C today ?

[TwoCats]

Their getting hammered. Glad I didn't play or see the pick in time .. IL be on the other 2..

Unfortunately I did! Ho hum!

[takethepnts]

Their getting hammered. Glad I didn't play or see the pick in time .. IL be on the other 2..

[skyscrapers]

Doesn't make sense why A's are such a heavy favorite.

[grecycle99]

UPDATED for 04/26/2025

System(s) record Chase :

Regular system: 35-0; Profit: 25.65 units
Filtered System: 7-0; Profit: 5.18 units
5/2 chase: 3-0; profit: 15 units

Total (3 systems) : 45-0; Profit: 45.83 unit (Series chase lost : )

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)

Game 1 (A) win = 24-11; 4-3; 3-0
Game 2 (B) win = 6-4; 3-0; 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 5-0; 0-0

Labby Line (20$ = 1unit)
(A) 12 * 21.60
(B)
(C)

REGULAR FOR 04/26/2025

(B) Athletics RL -103 to win 2.16U
(B) LA Dodgers RL -130 to win 2.16U
(B) Seattle RL -101 to win 2.16U

Filtered

(B) Athletics RL -103 to win 2.16U

5/2

(A) Athletics RL -103 to win 5U

[daneault23]

Athletics should be Regular/Filtered B and 5/2 A bet I think?

[Tomatero]

[grecycle99]

UPDATED for 04/25/2025

System(s) record Chase :

Regular system: 35-0; Profit: 25.65 units
Filtered System: 7-0; Profit: 5.18 units
5/2 chase: 3-0; profit: 15 units

Total (3 systems) : 45-0; Profit: 45.83 unit (Series chase lost : )

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)

Game 1 (A) win = 24-11; 4-3; 3-0
Game 2 (B) win = 6-4; 3-0; 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 5-0; 0-0

Labby Line (20$ = 1unit)
(A) 12 * 14.74
(B)
(C)

REGULAR FOR 04/25/2025

(A) Athletics RL -122 to win 1.48U
(A) Chicago Cubs -152 to win 1.48U
(A) LA Dodgers RL +114 to win 1.48U
(A) Minnesota RL +110 to win 1.48U
(A) Seattle RL -133 to win 1.48U

Watch SD -137

Filtered

(A) Athletics RL -122 to win 1.48U

5/2

No Play

[grecycle99]

UPDATED for 04/24/2025

System(s) record Chase :

Regular system: 30-0; Profit: 25.51 units
Filtered System: 6-0; Profit: 3.9 units
5/2 chase: 3-0; profit: 15 units

Total (3 systems) : 39-0; Profit: 44.41 unit (Series chase lost : )

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)

Game 1 (A) win = 23-8; 3-3; 3-0
Game 2 (B) win = 5-3; 3-0; 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 3-0; 0-0

Labby Line (20$ = 1unit)
(A) 3 * 24.20
(B) 3 * 24.20
(C) 2 * 24.20

REGULAR FOR 04/24/2025

(B) Kansas City RL -124 to win 2.42U
(C) LA Angels -150 to win 2.42U

Filtered

No Play

5/2

No Play

[skyscrapers]

Braves came through again in the 8th inning with a 3 run homer to win the C bet. Royals game postponed for a DH tomorrow so I guess we'll have to watch the 1st game closely. Angels suck again and go for a C bet win tomorrow

Only difference was yesterday's postponed KC play was a moneyline but today's game 1 will be a run line.

[daneault23]

Braves came through again in the 8th inning with a 3 run homer to win the C bet. Royals game postponed for a DH tomorrow so I guess we'll have to watch the 1st game closely. Angels suck again and go for a C bet win tomorrow

[grecycle99]

UPDATED for 04/23/2025

System(s) record Chase :

Regular system: 30-0; Profit: 25.51 units
Filtered System: 6-0; Profit: 3.9 units
5/2 chase: 3-0; profit: 15 units

Total (3 systems) : 39-0; Profit: 44.41 unit (Series chase lost : )

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)

Game 1 (A) win = 23-8; 3-3; 3-0
Game 2 (B) win = 5-3; 3-0; 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 3-0; 0-0

Labby Line (20$ = 1unit)
(A) 3 * 20.29
(B) 4 * 20.29
(C) 2 * 20.29

REGULAR FOR 04/23/2025

(B) Kansas City -185 to win 2.03U
(B) LA Angels -127 to win 2.03U
(C) Atlanta -150 to win 2.03U

Filtered

No Play

5/2

No Play

[daneault23]

FYI Atlanta's C bet is an early game with first pitch at 1215pm Eastern.

[grecycle99]

UPDATED for 04/22/2025

System(s) record Chase :

Regular system: 30-0; Profit: 25.51 units
Filtered System: 6-0; Profit: 3.9 units
5/2 chase: 3-0; profit: 15 units

Total (3 systems) : 39-0; Profit: 44.41 unit (Series chase lost : )

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)

Game 1 (A) win = 23-8; 3-3; 3-0
Game 2 (B) win = 5-3; 3-0; 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 3-0; 0-0

Labby Line (20$ = 1unit)
(A) 10 * 12.72
(B) 2 * 12.72
(C)

REGULAR FOR 04/22/2025

(A) Arizona -136 to win 1.28U
(A) Kansas City RL -111 to win 1.28U
(A) LA Angels -168 to win 1.28U
(A) Minnesota RL -113 to win 1.28U
(B) Atlanta -137 to win 1.28U

Filtered

(A) Arizona -165 to win 1.28U

5/2

No Play

[daneault23]

Now Braves - 1.5 RL??

Yup looks like it. Don't think any other bets made the list for today.

[Tomatero]

Now Braves - 1.5 RL??