Originally Posted by
JMon
I'm a little gun shy after that brutal loss yesterday.
But came with this a bit ago and wanted to see fellow miner's thoughts on this rather simple playoff specific spot. The basis is we have a home team, in the playoffs, coming of an embarrassing loss of 5 or more runs at home. It is a small sample but has happened at least once since 2004. We see teams coming back strong winning their next game at a 66.7% clip.
Now, if you eliminate the important SG=4 (motivational edge from either team) from the equation it hits at a 73.3% clip.
Finally, being down one game at home this almost becomes a "must win" if you will, as we see a look ahead road game coming up. No team want to be down 0-2 going on the road in a playoff game. We reference this parameter by using n:A. Now we see the win percentage jump to 84.6%
SDQL
H and p:margin <= -5 and playoffs = 1 and p:H
H and p:margin <= -5 and playoffs = 1 and p:H and SG!=4
H and p:margin <= -5 and playoffs = 1 and p:H and SG!=4 and n:A
KC Royals -120