Red Sox meet Angels in October once again

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  • Chance Harper
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 07-20-07
    • 788

    #1
    Red Sox meet Angels in October once again
    Red Sox meet Angels in October once again

    For the third consecutive postseason, and fourth time in six Octobers, the Angels and Red Sox are matched against each other with Boston completely dominating the previous three ALDS (2004, 2007-08), winning nine of the 10 games played. The Sox will give the ball to lefty Jon Lester in tonight's opener while Mike Scioscia and the Halos pin their Game 1 hopes on the right arm of veteran John Lackey.


    No team appears more solid than the Angels heading into the postseason, but no club has had as much trouble with their Division Series opponent as Los Angeles.

    The Red Sox have owned the Angels in the playoffs this decade, knocking them out of World Series contention in each of the last two years, and also back in 2004. Last year’s opening round loss to Boston was especially disappointing for L.A., which went into the playoffs with baseball’s best record before the BoSox finished the Halos off in four games.

    In their last three postseason encounters, the Red Sox have taken nine of the 10 meetings against the moneyline from the underachieving Angels.

    ALDS: Red Sox (-120) vs. Angels (+100)
    The Angels (97-65, +21.76 units) are banking on a different finish this time around when they lock up with the Red Sox (95-67, +10.63 units) in the best-of-five American League Division Series beginning on Thursday night in Anaheim.

    Bettors leaning towards Los Angeles as the value play in terms of series prices certainly need a different result as well. For that to happen, the Angels’ starting pitching has to outduel that of the BoSox, who come into the ALDS with some question marks in their rotation.

    Los Angeles also needs to demonstrate its balanced offensive approach will do them well in a postseason setting. With Vladimir Guerrero in decline in the middle of the order, the Halos don’t have an imposing bat in the cleanup hole anymore.

    What Mike Scioscia does have is an above average hitter in every place in the lineup. The emergence of Kendry Morales and the addition of Bobby Abreu has loaded up the batting order in Anaheim: L.A. has 10 players with at least 50 runs batted in, and 10 players with 100 or more hits. Boston’s pitching staff is going to get no breaks against this lineup, which led baseball in hitting with runners in scoring position (.296).

    Terry Francona hands the ball to lefthander Jon Lester (15-8, 3.41 ERA) for Thursday night’s series opener (9:37 PM ET), while Scioscia counters with John Lackey (11-8, 3.83 ERA). Lester has been lights out since May 31, with a 12-3 record and 2.31 ERA to lead Boston’s staff. The southpaw was dominant against the Angels in last year’s ALDS, holding Los Angeles scoreless in 14 innings of work.

    Lackey has been notoriously brutal against the Red Sox over his career. The Angels are only 3-14 against the moneyline in Lackey’s last 17 starts against Boston, including the postseason. Oddsmakers have Lackey and Los Angeles priced between +100 and -107 on the betting odds board for Game 1, with Boston listed between –108 and -122 depending on the outlet.

    Josh Beckett (17-6, 3.86 ERA) matches up with Jered Weaver (16-8, 3.63 ERA) for Friday night’s Game 2 (9:37 PM ET). The Halos have cashed 12 of Weaver’s 17 starts at Angel Stadium this season, during which the righthander has posted a 2.82 ERA. Weaver also has an 0.66 ERA against the Red Sox this season, although one outing doesn’t provide much of a statistical sample.

    Beantown backers have to feel some trepidation with Clay Buchholz (7-4, 4.21 ERA) scheduled to start in Game 3 back at Fenway Park on Sunday (time to be determined). Buchholz doesn’t have much of a playoff pedigree, so he’s not the guy you want on the mound if you’re down 0-2 in the series. It doesn’t help that Buchholz stumbled down the stretch with a 7.98 ERA over his last three outings. Angels lefthander Scott Kazmir (2-2, 1.73 ERA with L.A., 10-9, 4.89 ERA overall) toes the rubber opposite Buchholz for the ballgame.

    The other option is to send Daisuke Matsuzaka (4-6, 5.76 ERA) to the bump instead of Buchholz on Sunday, and don’t be surprised if Francona does it if Boston is in a hole after the first two games of the series. Dice-K has been solid since coming off the disabled list last month, and tossed six shutout innings in Boston’s 4-1 win against Los Angeles on September 15. Otherwise, Matsuzaka is likely to start against Joe Saunders (16-7, 4.60 ERA) in a potential Game 4 on Monday (TBA).

    The Angels won the season series 5-4, but the unbalanced schedule saw six of those contests go down in Anaheim, where they went 4-2 against the moneyline.
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