Hey, hey, hey! Pujols leads Cards against Dodgers
The Dodgers limped to the finish line with the best record in the National League, giving them home field advantage for the playoffs. But it's Albert Pujols and the St. Louis Cardinals drawing the tag of favorites in their NLDS that opens Wednesday out in Los Angeles. Backed by the strong right arms belonging to Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter, St. Louis took five of seven from LA during the regular season.
The Los Angeles Dodgers are the best team in the majors.
That statement would have been more readily accepted about three months ago, when Los Angeles did indeed have the best record in baseball and the New York Yankees had yet to hit their stride. But the Dodgers (95-67, 10.90 units) can lay claim to the biggest run differential at +169 runs, seven more than the Yankees and 79 greater than the St. Louis Cardinals (91-71, 2.40 units), their opponents in the National League Division Series.
That’s over the course of an entire 162-game regular season. And while it’s nice to have a very large sample size for the purposes of statistical analysis, the conditions on the ground are different now than they were in July. Trades have been made. Injured players have shuffled in and out of the lineups. And the Cardinals now find themselves the 17-10 favorites to win the NL pennant. The Dodgers are third on the betting odds list at 5-2, behind the Philadelphia Phillies at 2-1.
St. Louis started running away with the NL Central in August, going 20-6 and opening up a 10.5-game lead on the Chicago Cubs heading into the last month of the regular season. So what should we read into the Cards losing 14 of their last 20 games? Lack of motivation? Perhaps. The Dodgers, meanwhile, had to get their stuff together after a slow summer and went 23-10 to finish the season three games ahead of the hard-charging Colorado Rockies in the NL West.
L.A.’s World Series hopes took one in the yarbles when pitcher Hiroki Kuroda (3.76 ERA, 3.75 xFIP) developed a stiff neck last week. The diagnosis: a herniated disk. Kuroda won’t be available in the first round – not good news, considering he was the starter for one of only two Dodger victories over St. Louis in seven attempts. If Los Angeles chooses to go with a four-man rotation for this series, that means a playoff start for someone like Vicente Padilla (3.41 ERA, 3.85 xFIP in six starts with L.A.) or Jon Garland (2.72 ERA, 3.83 xFIP in six starts), both of whom have seen their numbers improve considerably since moving to pitcher-friendly Chavez Ravine.
But at least the Dodgers have some depth in this department. The Cardinals have question marks of their own when it comes to who might pitch a potential Game 4. John Smoltz (4.26 ERA, 3.51 xFIP in seven starts) is a likely candidate, but he might be better served in the bullpen – more on that in a moment. Kyle Lohse (4.74 ERA, 4.48 xFIP) would be the other real option. He’s not much of an option.
This is all assuming this best-of-five series reaches a Game 4. The Cards have by far the best 1-2 starting combo in Cy Young candidates Chris Carpenter (2.24 ERA, 3.46 xFIP), who will pitch Wednesday’s opener, and Adam Wainwright (2.63 ERA, 3.45 xFIP), who gets the nod on Thursday. Pitching Game 3 (we assume, since it’s not official yet) will be Joel Pineiro (3.44 ERA, 3.73 xFIP), who reinvented himself as a sinkerball expert this year and lets his premium infield defense do the vacuuming.
With Kuroda out of the mix, the Dodgers will try to avoid the sweep with Randy Wolf (3.23 ERA, 4.28 xFIP), Clayton Kershaw (2.79 ERA, 3.95 xFIP) and presumably Chad Billingsley (4.03 ERA, 4.04 xFIP). All three have been solid in 2009, but Billingsley (the only other pitcher to lead L.A. to the pay window against St. Louis) has generated just one win in his last seven starts. And solid doesn’t match up well against Cy Young.
But the Dodgers can steal this series in the bullpen. When it comes to betting value, this is the first area that the public can be counted on to overlook. Los Angeles is well stocked in the pen with a team ERA of 3.18, tops in the majors. St. Louis is fifth in that category with a 3.67 ERA. And the Cards closer this year is Ryan Franklin (1.92 ERA, 4.24 xFIP, 38 saves), who has a gaudy ERA, but whose stuff pales in comparison to that of Jonathan Broxton (2.61 ERA, 2.10 xFIP, 36 saves).
The two clubs are roughly equal in hitting prowess (.756 OPS for the Dodgers, .749 for the Cardinals), so the pressure is on Wolf and Kershaw to perform. The good news is they’ll play in L.A.; the Dodgers are +130 home dogs in Wednesday’s Game 1 with a total of seven runs.
The Dodgers limped to the finish line with the best record in the National League, giving them home field advantage for the playoffs. But it's Albert Pujols and the St. Louis Cardinals drawing the tag of favorites in their NLDS that opens Wednesday out in Los Angeles. Backed by the strong right arms belonging to Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter, St. Louis took five of seven from LA during the regular season.
The Los Angeles Dodgers are the best team in the majors.
That statement would have been more readily accepted about three months ago, when Los Angeles did indeed have the best record in baseball and the New York Yankees had yet to hit their stride. But the Dodgers (95-67, 10.90 units) can lay claim to the biggest run differential at +169 runs, seven more than the Yankees and 79 greater than the St. Louis Cardinals (91-71, 2.40 units), their opponents in the National League Division Series.
That’s over the course of an entire 162-game regular season. And while it’s nice to have a very large sample size for the purposes of statistical analysis, the conditions on the ground are different now than they were in July. Trades have been made. Injured players have shuffled in and out of the lineups. And the Cardinals now find themselves the 17-10 favorites to win the NL pennant. The Dodgers are third on the betting odds list at 5-2, behind the Philadelphia Phillies at 2-1.
St. Louis started running away with the NL Central in August, going 20-6 and opening up a 10.5-game lead on the Chicago Cubs heading into the last month of the regular season. So what should we read into the Cards losing 14 of their last 20 games? Lack of motivation? Perhaps. The Dodgers, meanwhile, had to get their stuff together after a slow summer and went 23-10 to finish the season three games ahead of the hard-charging Colorado Rockies in the NL West.
L.A.’s World Series hopes took one in the yarbles when pitcher Hiroki Kuroda (3.76 ERA, 3.75 xFIP) developed a stiff neck last week. The diagnosis: a herniated disk. Kuroda won’t be available in the first round – not good news, considering he was the starter for one of only two Dodger victories over St. Louis in seven attempts. If Los Angeles chooses to go with a four-man rotation for this series, that means a playoff start for someone like Vicente Padilla (3.41 ERA, 3.85 xFIP in six starts with L.A.) or Jon Garland (2.72 ERA, 3.83 xFIP in six starts), both of whom have seen their numbers improve considerably since moving to pitcher-friendly Chavez Ravine.
But at least the Dodgers have some depth in this department. The Cardinals have question marks of their own when it comes to who might pitch a potential Game 4. John Smoltz (4.26 ERA, 3.51 xFIP in seven starts) is a likely candidate, but he might be better served in the bullpen – more on that in a moment. Kyle Lohse (4.74 ERA, 4.48 xFIP) would be the other real option. He’s not much of an option.
This is all assuming this best-of-five series reaches a Game 4. The Cards have by far the best 1-2 starting combo in Cy Young candidates Chris Carpenter (2.24 ERA, 3.46 xFIP), who will pitch Wednesday’s opener, and Adam Wainwright (2.63 ERA, 3.45 xFIP), who gets the nod on Thursday. Pitching Game 3 (we assume, since it’s not official yet) will be Joel Pineiro (3.44 ERA, 3.73 xFIP), who reinvented himself as a sinkerball expert this year and lets his premium infield defense do the vacuuming.
With Kuroda out of the mix, the Dodgers will try to avoid the sweep with Randy Wolf (3.23 ERA, 4.28 xFIP), Clayton Kershaw (2.79 ERA, 3.95 xFIP) and presumably Chad Billingsley (4.03 ERA, 4.04 xFIP). All three have been solid in 2009, but Billingsley (the only other pitcher to lead L.A. to the pay window against St. Louis) has generated just one win in his last seven starts. And solid doesn’t match up well against Cy Young.
But the Dodgers can steal this series in the bullpen. When it comes to betting value, this is the first area that the public can be counted on to overlook. Los Angeles is well stocked in the pen with a team ERA of 3.18, tops in the majors. St. Louis is fifth in that category with a 3.67 ERA. And the Cards closer this year is Ryan Franklin (1.92 ERA, 4.24 xFIP, 38 saves), who has a gaudy ERA, but whose stuff pales in comparison to that of Jonathan Broxton (2.61 ERA, 2.10 xFIP, 36 saves).
The two clubs are roughly equal in hitting prowess (.756 OPS for the Dodgers, .749 for the Cardinals), so the pressure is on Wolf and Kershaw to perform. The good news is they’ll play in L.A.; the Dodgers are +130 home dogs in Wednesday’s Game 1 with a total of seven runs.