Angels face brutal week on the road
Mike Scioscia and the LA Angels are up against it this week with seven road games against the Yankees, Red Sox and Rangers. It's a good thing the Halos are an MLB-best 42-29 away from home this season.
So the American League playoffs are pretty much set. Right?
According to the supreme stat guys at Baseball Prospectus, the Los Angeles Angels had an 87.9 percent chance of winning the AL West heading into Sunday’s action. The Angels were 5.5 games up on the Texas Rangers at the time; now they’re six games up after beating the Chicago White Sox (+140) and watching the Rangers split a pair with the Seattle Mariners.
And yet the Angels aren’t exactly going to waltz into the postseason. First they have to navigate a seven-day, seven-game road trip that starts Monday in New York with a make-up game against the Yankees, the best team in baseball at 92-52 (+9.15 units). Then it’s off to Fenway Park to meet the Boston Red Sox (84-58, +13.12 units). The gauntlet ends in Arlington with the Rangers themselves.
The Angels are eminently qualified to tackle this workload. They’re the best road team in the league at 42-29 and the most profitable at 15.97 units in the black. They have a healthy roster for a change, and there are simply no holes in pitching rotation with the acquisition of Scott Kazmir from the Tampa Bay Rays. Kazmir has given the Halos three straight quality starts since his arrival at the waiver-wire trade deadline. All three games went under; Los Angeles won the last two, including Sunday against the White Sox.
The betting odds say the Angels are probably going to start off on a bad note Monday night. But it’s a virtual coin flip with the Yankees priced at -112 and the visitors at -108. Consider it a nod of respect to Jered Weaver (3.76 ERA, 4.66 xFIP), a legitimate ace and the most profitable of L.A.’s five starters with 6.83 units on a team record of 20-9. The Yankees respond with Joba Chamberlain (4.45 ERA, 4.69 xFIP), although he’s been limited to three innings in each of his last three starts in order to keep him healthy for the playoffs. The New York bullpen won two of those games to improve Chamberlain’s team record to 18-9 (+4.18 units).
There aren’t too many clubs that can compete with the Yankees at the plate, but this is one of them. New York (5.7 runs per game) and Los Angeles (5.6 runs) are the top two scoring teams in the majors. The Yankees have more pop (.839 team OPS to .796), but the Halos have more speed (134 stolen bases to 88, and 37 sacrifice hits to 28). Manager Mike Scioscia has a rare gift for making smallball a winning strategy –this is on pace to be the highest scoring Angels team in its 30-year history.
The hit parade will continue in Boston. The Red Sox (5.3 runs per game) are third in the majors in scoring, and even more prolific at Fenway Park with a league-best six runs per game. What the Sox don’t have is a deep rotation. However, Daisuke Matsuzaka is back in the mix after missing three months with a “weak” throwing arm. Blame it on the World Baseball Classic if you like; Matsuzaka was the MVP, but the added workload and the disruption of his spring training may have led to his 8.23 ERA (5.06 xFIP) in eight starts. We’ll see how fresh Dice-K is on Tuesday versus the other ace up L.A.’s sleeve, John Lackey (3.53 ERA, 4.11 xFIP).
The Halos would be very pleased to get a split out of these four games before reaching the Ballpark in Arlington. There they’ll have to contend with a Rangers team that’s eighth in the majors in scoring (4.9 runs per game, 5.4 at home). Again, it’s pitching depth that could sink Texas in this series. Great defense turned out not to be enough to stop Kevin Millwood (3.94 ERA, 5.14 xFIP) from regressing to the mean with six team losses in his last seven starts.
That leaves Scott Feldman (3.46 ERA, 4.33 xFIP) as the only reliable commodity in the rotation. The Rangers have won seven of his last eight to improve to 19-7, making Feldman the most profitable starting pitcher of them all at 12.54 units. He’ll start Sunday’s finale against Lackey; how much will be on the line by then remains to be seen.
Mike Scioscia and the LA Angels are up against it this week with seven road games against the Yankees, Red Sox and Rangers. It's a good thing the Halos are an MLB-best 42-29 away from home this season.
So the American League playoffs are pretty much set. Right?
According to the supreme stat guys at Baseball Prospectus, the Los Angeles Angels had an 87.9 percent chance of winning the AL West heading into Sunday’s action. The Angels were 5.5 games up on the Texas Rangers at the time; now they’re six games up after beating the Chicago White Sox (+140) and watching the Rangers split a pair with the Seattle Mariners.
And yet the Angels aren’t exactly going to waltz into the postseason. First they have to navigate a seven-day, seven-game road trip that starts Monday in New York with a make-up game against the Yankees, the best team in baseball at 92-52 (+9.15 units). Then it’s off to Fenway Park to meet the Boston Red Sox (84-58, +13.12 units). The gauntlet ends in Arlington with the Rangers themselves.
The Angels are eminently qualified to tackle this workload. They’re the best road team in the league at 42-29 and the most profitable at 15.97 units in the black. They have a healthy roster for a change, and there are simply no holes in pitching rotation with the acquisition of Scott Kazmir from the Tampa Bay Rays. Kazmir has given the Halos three straight quality starts since his arrival at the waiver-wire trade deadline. All three games went under; Los Angeles won the last two, including Sunday against the White Sox.
The betting odds say the Angels are probably going to start off on a bad note Monday night. But it’s a virtual coin flip with the Yankees priced at -112 and the visitors at -108. Consider it a nod of respect to Jered Weaver (3.76 ERA, 4.66 xFIP), a legitimate ace and the most profitable of L.A.’s five starters with 6.83 units on a team record of 20-9. The Yankees respond with Joba Chamberlain (4.45 ERA, 4.69 xFIP), although he’s been limited to three innings in each of his last three starts in order to keep him healthy for the playoffs. The New York bullpen won two of those games to improve Chamberlain’s team record to 18-9 (+4.18 units).
There aren’t too many clubs that can compete with the Yankees at the plate, but this is one of them. New York (5.7 runs per game) and Los Angeles (5.6 runs) are the top two scoring teams in the majors. The Yankees have more pop (.839 team OPS to .796), but the Halos have more speed (134 stolen bases to 88, and 37 sacrifice hits to 28). Manager Mike Scioscia has a rare gift for making smallball a winning strategy –this is on pace to be the highest scoring Angels team in its 30-year history.
The hit parade will continue in Boston. The Red Sox (5.3 runs per game) are third in the majors in scoring, and even more prolific at Fenway Park with a league-best six runs per game. What the Sox don’t have is a deep rotation. However, Daisuke Matsuzaka is back in the mix after missing three months with a “weak” throwing arm. Blame it on the World Baseball Classic if you like; Matsuzaka was the MVP, but the added workload and the disruption of his spring training may have led to his 8.23 ERA (5.06 xFIP) in eight starts. We’ll see how fresh Dice-K is on Tuesday versus the other ace up L.A.’s sleeve, John Lackey (3.53 ERA, 4.11 xFIP).
The Halos would be very pleased to get a split out of these four games before reaching the Ballpark in Arlington. There they’ll have to contend with a Rangers team that’s eighth in the majors in scoring (4.9 runs per game, 5.4 at home). Again, it’s pitching depth that could sink Texas in this series. Great defense turned out not to be enough to stop Kevin Millwood (3.94 ERA, 5.14 xFIP) from regressing to the mean with six team losses in his last seven starts.
That leaves Scott Feldman (3.46 ERA, 4.33 xFIP) as the only reliable commodity in the rotation. The Rangers have won seven of his last eight to improve to 19-7, making Feldman the most profitable starting pitcher of them all at 12.54 units. He’ll start Sunday’s finale against Lackey; how much will be on the line by then remains to be seen.