Ck's 2024 mlb thread

[matt711]

Wasn’t Miami Ohio the favorite last nite ?

[atthehalf]

Added


Bucks-9.5

They have hit rock bottom. Buy when stock is low boys

[atthehalf]

Wasn’t Miami Ohio the favorite last nite ?

I took Ball State

[atthehalf]

Oh I see it-I posted Miami with the points instead of Ball State-my bad-but anyone should have been able to see where the plus was-my following must be as loyal as Trump supporters

[matt711]

Oh I see it-I posted Miami with the points instead of Ball State-my bad-but anyone should have been able to see where the plus was-my following must be as loyal as Trump supporters

Lol, thanks for your posts!!

[atthehalf]

Tonight

NBA

Rot.#532 Pistons-115 ML
Rot.#551 Blazers+12.5
Rot.#549 Heat+3
Rot.#543 Nets+13
Rot.#548 Grizzlies-7.5
Rot.#542 Mavs-135 ML

[atthehalf]

I am interrupting your programming to bring you a public service announcement.

Word of caution boys. You don't have to roll with what I am going to throw down on tomorrow. It's all about options. Now here's what I know about the teams that are in the hunt for the national championship-they are at that time of the year when those teams will run up the score in an effort to appeal to the voters. So be advised. Don't make moves on teams that are just good enough-no they're not. The uglier the chalk is and doesn't make sense to be that high-you may want to get down on it.

You will now be returned to your regularly scheduled programming already in progress

[atthehalf]

12:00 ROT.#126 TEXAS-21.5
12:00 ROT.#142 OHIO STATE-37.5
12:00 ROT.#142 OHIO STATE-21.5 1ST HALF
12:00 ROT.#180 RUTGERS+3.5 1ST HALF
12:00 ROT.#180 RUTGERS+6 FULL GAME
1:00 ROT.#143 LIBERTY-11

[atthehalf]

I will be back around 3:00 or so for the second slate of games today

[atthehalf]

ROT.#155 UCONN-7.5 or 8 depending on your book

[atthehalf]

3:30

Rot.#135 Duke+3
Rot.#130 Kansas+2
Rot.#198 Virginia Tech+6
Rot.#140 James Madison-14.5
Rot.#184 Indiana-14.5

[atthehalf]

4:00 ROT.#164 TULANE-26.5 3 UNITS
4:00 ROT.#164 TULANE-14.5 1ST HALF

[atthehalf]

7:00 ROT.#192 TENNESSEE-24.5
7:00 ROT.#192 TENNESSEE-14.5 1ST HALF
7:30 ROT.#196 NOTRE DAME-26

[atthehalf]

Rot.#124 Pitt-7 2 UNITS

[atthehalf]

Rot.#201 UNLV-12.5

[atthehalf]

Penn State-7.5 2nd half

[atthehalf]

Bad stuff-the Panthers QB left the game early in the 3rd quarter...

[atthehalf]

Ok so according to these links

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/odds-history/spread/?season-filter=since_2024

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/odds-history/win/?season-filter=since_2024

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/odds-history/over-under/?season-filter=2024

I should be looking for these numbers


AWAY+6 TO +7.5


Rot.#271 Broncos+7.5 (-1.60 MOV)
Rot.#275 Patties+6 (+1.0 MOV)
Rot.#277 Titans+7.5 (-1.60 MOV)


AWAY-3 TO -5


Rot.#263 Bills-4 (+8.17 MOV)
Rot.#269 Falcons-3.5 (+19.20 MOV)
Rot# 283 Lions-3.5 (+19.20 MOV)


AWAY-1 TO -2


Rot.#281 Jets-2 (+6.50 MOV)


HOME-4 to -4.5


NONE


HOME-1 TO -1.5


Rot.#286 Rams-1.5 (MONDAY) (+7.0 MOV)


HOME+7 TO +7.5


Rot.#280 Cowboys+7.5 (+5.0 MOV)

[atthehalf]

As for totals (which shift all day long until right up until kickoff-which is why I usually wait until the ball has been kicked to make a totals decision) these CURRETLY look good to go-that may change as totals are much more volatile than spreads

Vikings/Jags UNDER 43.5 (AVG 39.80 POINTS)
Steelers/Commanders UNDER 45 (AVG 39.67 POINTS)
Patties/Bears UNDER 38.5 (AVG 32.50 POINTS)
Titans/Chargers UNDER 39 (AVG 27 POINTS)

[atthehalf]

So of the underdogs the best ML's look to be the Patties and the Cowboys...naturally I will get some of those ML's in addition to the points.

As for SAME GAME PARLAYS may as well go with the dogs

Broncos+4.5 1st half/Broncos+7.5 FULL GAME

Titans+4 1st half/Titans+7.5 FULL GAME

[atthehalf]

Enough of my ramblings-so if you are making the moves that I am making here's how your early card should look

Rot.#271 Broncos+7.5
Rot.#271 Broncos+4.5 1st half
Rot.#275 Patties+6
Rot.#275 Patties/Bears UNDER 38.5
Rot.#269 Falcons-3.5
Rot.#263 Bills-4
Rot.#265 Vikings/Jags UNDER 43.5
Rot.#267 Steelers/Commanders UNDER 45

SAME GAME PARLAY

BRONCOS+4.5 1ST HALF/BRONCOS+7.5 FULL GAME

[atthehalf]

Also let's get some

Rot.#267 Steelers+2

[atthehalf]

The line for the Titans is getting sweeter having now gone to +8.5. I had to go back to 2023 to find a number like this and found that it wins at a 66.7% clip and a MOV of -7.33 and not the -10 which is actually needed in football numbers.

So let's go


Rot.#277 Titans+8.5
Rot.#281 Jets-130 ML
Rot.#280 Cowboys+7.5

[atthehalf]

Today let's stick with NBA

Rot.#532 Spurs+105 ML 3 UNITS
Rot.#523 Clippers/Thunder UNDER 218.5 2 UNITS

ALSO 2-WAY PARLAY THESE

[atthehalf]

I have no idea how the Clippers/Thunder didn't go UNDER. There were two top 5 defenses vs one another and the line stayed still despite an avalanche on the OVER.

Anyway onward and upward

Today sticking with some good old NBA and one CFB event

Rot.#538 Magic-8.5
Rot.#534 Celtics-15
Rot.#548 Warriors-145 ML
Rot.#305 Ball State+4

[atthehalf]

3-1 last night and looking for more today. In CFB there are 3 teams needing a win to qualify for a bowl game-Miami (OH), Eastern Michigan and Northern Illinois.

I like Northern Illinois but it's tough to take them with double digits.

So on to NBA we go

The Suns are 9-2 ad the Kings are 6-5 and are favored by 7.5 points. Sounds good enough to me

Rot.#570 Kings-7.5 DOUBLE DOWN

[atthehalf]

I can't wait for the Hawks to play again on Friday against the Wizards after upsetting the Celtics as a 15 point underdog. That line will be inflated and I have it set at Wizards-2 with a total of 239.5. So ANY points given to the Wizards would be a gift. I am going ML one that one as well




well

[atthehalf]

1-0 yesterday and let's look to CFB again tonight, This one has SITUATION, MOTIVATION and FAMILIRITY all rolled up into one. Tulsa beat East Carolina last season so there's revenge. East Carolina needs a win to become bowl eligible. A -14.5 to -15.5 ROAD FAVORITE has covered the number at a clip of 100% this season.

UNLV usually doesn't play around with inferior basketball teams-especially at home

Rot.#315 East Carolina-15.5 3 UNITS
Rot.#742 UNLV-17

[atthehalf]

Whoa-I didn't expect for East Carolina to play as badly as they did. that 3rd quarter was quite possibly the worst quarter of football that I can ever remember seeing.

Ok so today wait it out for the Wizards and Cavs injury reports and then be ready to blast away

[atthehalf]

Let's lay off of the Wizards as the ML reading for this game is pretty bad-and let's concentrate on the Cavs who are catching the Bulls of of a +9.5 underdog win against the Knickerbockers who are trying to find their mojo still

Rot.#512 Cavs-10 3 UNITS
Rot.#514 Spurs+3 1 UNIT
Rot.#510 Knickerbockers-10 1 UNIT

[atthehalf]

Rot.#317 Wyoming+8.5

[atthehalf]

Very strange 1-3 night anyway

Here's what I'm smokin on EARLY

12:00 Rot.#334 Arkansas+12.5
12:00 Rot.#347 Clemson-12

[atthehalf]

2:30 Michigan State+3

[atthehalf]

3:00 Rot.#369 Sam Houston-21

[atthehalf]

3:30 Rot.#376 SMU-19
3:30 Rot.#390 Air Force+3
3:30 Rot.#361 Louisville-21