Ck's 2024 mlb thread

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Also I am sticking with the data

Bengals/Giants UNDER 46

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MLB Playoffs

Senga vs Dodgers 19 AB; 5K; 4BB; .316 AVG; .632 SLG; 1.066 OPS
Flaherty vs Metropolitans 68 AB; 21K; 5BB; .235 AVG; .288 OBP, .426 SLG; .714 OPS

Looks like a

Dodgers Team Total OVER 4.5 +115
Jack Flaherty OVER 5.5 K'S 120

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Giants+6.5 LIVE BET

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With the Guardians starting Cobb it's obviously going to be a bullpen game. Dude only went 41 pitches in his last outing so it's kind of hard to gauge what will happen with him as far as longevity in the game and his numbers must be thrown out. To be sure with me having a background in fantasy league I absolutely detest bullpen games and don't like making moves on those types of situations.

Rodon on the other hand has only faced 5 Guardians batters-so while his numbers look good they are skewed somewhat. For the record, the Guardians are #7 in OPS vs lefties with a line of .751.

So really I am looking for an individual. And that is Juan Soto-who I hope can tee off on Cobb before he leaves the game

The drop off of the Bombers lineup is steep after Soto and Judge. Soto is 7-11 with 1 BOMB and 1 DOUBLE, and 1 BB; with a .636 AVG; .667 OBP, 1.273 SLG; AND 1.939 OPS vs Cobb. A nice double would do the trick so I am looking to take

Bombers (Soto) OVER 2 BASES +145

The Dodgers haven't named a starter. Manaea of the Metropolitans is not the same pitcher even as he was at the beginning of the season.

He has changed his arm slot and is much more accurate.

Let's go with Manaea vs the Dodgers stellar bullpen

Metropolitans/Dodgers UNDER 8 DOUBLE DOWN

Metropolitans+0.5 -122 FF RL Manaea

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Damn.. I expected the Metropolitans to do well but not blast away so hard!

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After doing the metrics I don't see any way shape or form that the Guardians/Bombers goes UNDER.

Guardians/Bombers OVER 7.5


I will check in on the MNF game now

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Hopefully this doesn't go wrong like yesterday with data driven numbers that were even in the 90% range went to hell-okay so the 41 in this NFL season is 3-0-1 with a sterling 75% for the under with an average production of 32.5 points. After taking my first bad weekend of NFL I am going to stick with what gets the chicken on the table and not change course because the numbers betrayed me yesterday. Hey it was even ok to make children coal miners at one time herein good old America right? Discovery, perception, enlightenment, and innovation will always prosper

Bill/Jets UNDER 41

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Damn... the good numbers are failing me somewhat. I am just gonna sit the second half out

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So for tonight in CFB so far I have made moves on

Rot.#303 Kennesaw State+10
Rot.#305 Louisiana Tech-11.5

Still looking over the numbers for MLB

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Bibee(#34) vs Bombers 17 AB; 2K; 3BB; .353 AVG; .450 OBP; .588 SLG; 1038 OPS (0.34 K%)
Cole (#11) vs Guardians 127 AB; 32K; 12BB; .236 AVG; .302 OBP; .457 SLG; .759 OPS (40.64 K%)

Ok so Gerrit Cole averages 40.6% K's vs the Guardians lineup. So in the event that he goes for 6 frames (18 batters at minimum) he should get 7 K's with his customary and normal production.

Let's go that route

Rot.#958 Bombers (Cole) OVER 5.5 K's -110

On the other hand based upon what I have found historically for 17 batters Bibee would be lucky to make it to 18 batters minimum for 5 frames and with a K% of LESS THAN 1% you are forced to go UNDER his K's

Rot.#957 Guardians (Bibee) UNDER 4.5 K's -105

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I am absolutely blown away at how many totals numbers in NFL that hit at 90% or more got destroyed this past weekend. total regression to the mean I guess. I spoke with the counter boys at the Hard Rock and they told me that they lost BIG this past weekend on favorites and overs as the public won with parlays for the favorites and the overs combined. They were also saying that a lot of the turnovers were happening on short fields which caused the uptick in scoring

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So for Wednesday. There are only a handful of games on the board this weekend with the potential to have a lot of points scored and that is the New Mexico/Utah State, Georgia State/Marshall, Tulsa/Temple, Kent State/Bowling Green, UAB/South Florida, and Florida International/UTEP. Therefore....

Florida International/UTEP OVER 47.5 5 UNITS



Revenge is in the air for Sam Houston; and they have excellent ground and pound offensively and stop the rush much better than WKU. If they keep it simple this would be a cornerstone victory for this program since moving up from the FCS


Sam Houston State-135 ML

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The skinny-if the coaches are bright enough to be named as head coaches one look a the other team's rushing defense should make them want to include a heavy dose of running in their game plans.

Florida International is 112th in rushing defense giving up 258 rush yards on the highway on average
UTEP is 124th against the rush giving up 293 yards on average at home

Both of these teams give up more than 5 yards per play defensively overall with FIU surrendering 28.5 points on average and UTEP 32.5 points

And while UTEP is dead last in the nation in red zone scoring-they have had the chances coming up short with points on only 6 of 11 drives inside of the 20 ending up in touchdowns and 3 of those came against Southern Utah. FIU's defense is porous however so some of those problems shouldn't be present on the field. UTEP is desperate for a win so expect to see a fake punt or field goal in this one. UTEP hasn't won a game since October of LAST YEAR!

I see somewhere in the range of 55 points in this affair

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For Friday

Georgia State/Marshall OVER 51.5 2 UNITS

Boston College/Virginia Tech UNDER 48.5 2 UNITS

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MLB Playoffs

Stay away from the K's as the managers are pulling guys now at the first sign of a jam.

Schmidt vs Guardians 38AB; 9K; 6BB; .395 AVG; .477 OBP; .447 SLG; .925 OPS
Boyd vs Bombers 33 AB; 5K; .242 AVG; .405 OBP; .455 SLG; .895 OPS

Gotta go with the Guardians in this spot boys and clearly they will score a lot of runs vs Schmidt

Guardians+102 Boyd
Bombers/Guardians OVER 7.5 +102

Yamamoto vs Metropolitans 21 AB; 7K; 1BB; .238 AVG; .273 OBP; .333 SLG; .606 OPS
Quintana vs Dodgers 154 AB; 33K; 17 BB; .299 AVG; .368 OBP; .481 SLG; .849 OPS

Gotta go UNDER for this as each game has gone over the total and the law of averages indicate this

Dodgers/Metropolitans UNDER 7 +105 Yamamoto/Quintana

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For Friday I am again tapping into desperation on the behalf of a team starved for a win in Florida State. Noles QB Uiagalelei is an interception machine however and one of those picks will happen inside of the Noles territory which will help things out. Defensively both of these teams absolutely SUCK with a combined synergy of 196 in rushing against ranking combined. Florida State is coming in off of a bye and have had some time to iron out the kinks-on the other hand the Blue Devils have lost 10 straight games to the Noles and they won't have any sympathy on them being down this season.
The wrong team is favored in the Fresno/Nevada game.


BYU has every conceivable edge against the Cowboys so I combined those two teams in a nice 6 point teaser


Nevada+125 ML
BYU-3/Nevada+9 6 POINT TEASER
Florida State/Duke OVER 41.5

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Patiently waiting until the end of the third inning to jump in with the Dodgers at a discounted rate. Peterson is pitching on short rest which means that this will ultimately end up being a bullpen game for the Metropolitans-that has proven to be disaster on wheels. Of course check back here to see if I have a change of mind

Flaherty vs Metropolitans 90 AB; 27K; 7 BB; .200 AVG; .258 OBP; .344 SLG; .602 OPS
Peterson vs Dodgers 67 AB; 16K; 4BB; .343 AVG; .380 OBP; .612 SLG; .992 OPS

Dodgers ML in game TOP OF THE FOURTH INNING

Gil vs Guardians 18 AB; 5K; 8 BB; .222 AVG; .462 OBP; .444 SLG; .906 OPS
Williams vs Bombers 15 AB; 5K; 3BB; .267 AVG; .389 OBP; .467 SLG; .856 OPS

Luis Gil hasn't pitched in a game in what seems like forever (since 9/28//24). So why not go with the live home underdog to finally get a lead early

Rot.#966 Guardians+100 FF Williams

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Forget about it-the Dodgers are getting shelled. just the Guardians FF move now

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The landscape for tomorrow looks to be mostly totals in CFB. The sides are just OK at best. I only see literally 5 SIDES that I like. I will be making moves live at Hard Rock tomorrow, and the theme is going to be TOTAL CONTROL. I have 3.3 K impressions on X over this past week and I am encouraging folks to follow me on X to get the moves faster. I may not be able to always toggle back and forth between X and SBR Forum while making moves

https://x.com/renosharpvip

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I made my moves last night while at the sportsbook so some of the numbers may have changed. These are my early moves

12:00 Miami(FL)/Louisville UNDER 61
12:00 East Carolina/Army UNDER 51.5
12:00 Virginia/Clemson UNDER 57.5
12:00 Arizona State/Cincy UNDER 53.5
12:00 Wisconsin/Northwestern UNDER 41
12:00 Nebraska/Indiana UNDER 50.5
12:00 Louisiana/Coastal Carolina OVER 57



12:30 South Carolina/Oklahoma UNDER 41

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3:30

3:30 Tennessee+140 ML
3:30 Alabama/Tennessee UNDER 56.5
3:30 Tennessee+140 ML/UNDER 56.5 2 WAY PARLAY
3:30 Kent State/Bowling Green OVER 55.5
3:30 Toledo/Northern Illinois UNDER 43
3:30 Northern Illinois-145 ML
3:30 Northern Illinois-145 ML/UNDER 43 2 WAY PARLAY
3:30 Tennessee+140/UNDER 56.5/N. illinois-145/UNDER 43 4 WAY PARLAY
3:30 Charlotte/Navy OVER 55
3:30 Notre Dame/Georgia Tech UNDER 49
3:30 Cal-9.5

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7:00 LSU/Arkansas UNDER 57
7:00 LSU/Arkansas UNDER 57
7:00 Arkansas State/Southern Miss OVER 57
7:00 Arkansas State/Southern Miss OVER 57

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LIVE BETS

Georgia/Texas UNDER 57.5
Central Florida/Iowa State UNDER 48.5
K-State/West Virginia UNDER 56.5

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8:00 SMU/Stanford UNDER 53

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LSU-0.5 2nd half

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LIVE BET

West Virginia+7.5

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Get ready to take Florida 2nd half. Waiting at the counter

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Also gonna take Central Florida too

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Pass on Central Florida

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Florida+0.5 2nd half 2 UNITS

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Decent ending to yesterday with some 2nd halves. Ok so for today I am loving the Seahawks in this spot off of two losses against some heavyweight teams. grab some ML too while you are at it.

One thing that I know will be true-Drake Maye will be running for his life today when the Patties play the Jags-who actually stayed in England the full week and should be the fresher of the two teams-I can't make a case for taking the Jags with the amount of timely drops by the receivers either

Rot.#451 Patties (Maye) OVER 24.5 rushing yards

Geno Smith has been quietly tearing it up even against those heavyweight teams-the going gets a little more easier her. I think that you can same game parlay these too

Rot.#453 Seahawks+3
Rot.#453 Seahawks+135 ML
Rot.#453 Seahawks (Geno Smith) OVER 272 PASS YARDS

There is nothing that either of these two teams can do to surprise the other. It has to be sheer willpower. The Giants are one of those teams that always find a way to lose-why not take advantage of this.

Not much is expected of the Raiders in this spot having traded way hostage Davante Adams, Take advantage of joe's perceptions

Rot.#465 Eagles+3/Raiders+13 6 POINT TEASER

Take the Raiders+7 as well

Commanders Team Total OVER 15.5 1st half

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Dolphins/Colts OVER 44

There are SURE to be some turnovers in this one!

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With this many turnovers it's a big wonder as to why the Dolphins/Colts game hasn't had more scoring but no worries

Raiders/Rams UNDER 43.5

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Jets-1.5 2nd half

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So for tonight

Ravens-4
Cardinals+1.5

Chargers/Cardinals OVER 44