Ck's 2024 mlb thread

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Nice 2-0 day today for tomorrow

Nola#2 vs Metropolitans 243 AB; 70K; 22BB; .272 AVG; .332 OBP; .444 SLG; .777 OPS
Manaea#4 vs Blunts 97 AB; 24K; 6BB; .309 AVG; .346 OBP; .680 SLG; 1.027 OPS

Anytime that I see an OPS of 1.000 or more i automatically take the opposing teams team total to go OVER even if Manaea has been on fire recently. The Metropolitans bullpen has a 4.82 ERA and has 18 K's, 9 BB; and has given up 16 hits; 10 runs and 4 BOMBS in the postseason; making theirs one of the worst bullpens of the remaining teams

Rot.#901 Blunts Team Total OVER 3.5 -125

Buehler#3 vs Fathers 157 AB; 38K; 11BB; .204 AVG; .256 OBP; .338 SLG; .594 OPS
King#1 vs Dodgers 98 AB; 31K; 9BB; .235 AVG; .299 OBP; .480 SLG; .779 OPS

looks like good numbers for both vs the opposition-however one has to hope that Dave Roberts doesn't have a quick hook for Buehler. He hasn't let him go over 5 frames in over a month so I am not looking to go beyond the 5 frames for my move. What's good is King has K'd up almost a 1/3rd of the Dodger batters that he has faced. He tends to go longer in games than Buehler averaging 6 frames per outing over his last five starts and 7.2 K's per (which is skewed somewhat by his 12K performance vs the Braves). The Dodgers bullpen stinks-it's the worst of the teams left so let's get the early money

After the bludgeoning that the Fathers put on the Dodgers in game 2 they are the joe's darlings so I am staying away from the side in this one.

Rot.#903 Dodgers/Fathers UNDER 4 +105 FF Buehler/King
Rot.#904 Fathers (King) OVER 5.5 K's +102

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I may make a move in CFB tonight if the number goes to 16. Stay tuned in around 6:30 or 6:45

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Florida International +16.5

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Looking for a middle. Take

Liberty-12.5 LIVE AFTER 2ND HALF KICKOFF

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Damn 1-4 this evening-oh well onward and upward

Tomorrow

Rot.#104 Jacksonville State-10 2 UNITS

I am gonna get some Royals too-just a matter of time and how much backing joes give the Bombers to sweeten the pot, Would like to see the number go to +110 if I can get it

Schmidt vs Royals 51 AB; 11K; 2BB; .314 AVG; .340 OBP; .667 SLG; 1.006 OPS
Lugo vs Bombers 96 AB; 32K; 11BB; .229 AVG; .308 OBP; .323 SLG; .631 OPS

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Excellent ML reading for the Royals where it's getting more expensive to take them +1.5 so let's go on and grab them while you can still get them at +100

Rot.#910 Royals+100 Lugo 2 UNITS

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Sorry about things guys-I sustained some heavy damage from the hurricane including an avocado tree from my next door neighbor's house landing against my home and roof and a city tree in the alleyway landing on my fence. There has been lots of clean up of debris today and chainsaw activity. A branch cut me on the left leg next to my ankle but other than that we are good and sound and tanking heaven that no one got hurt.

Ok so for tonight

UNLV-18.5
Arizona State+6 and +195 ML

Utah State is 126th against the rush and UNLV is 35th in rushing offense and 16th in rushing defense. Utah State is 80th in rush offense. Sounds like a recipe for disaster.

Utah is 34th in rushing defense and Arizona State is ranked #11 in rush defense-which is Utah's calling card. On offense Arizona State is 13th in rushing and Utah is 40th. I have Arizona State as a 5 point favorite

I am leveraging my Fathers' SERIES bet with one on the Dodgers to even up with arbitrage

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Good stuff with Arizona State and leveraging out my Fathers SERIES move with a Dodgers bet. UNLV let up of of the gas which kind of pissed me off...

For the EARLY stuff for today

12:00 Army-27.5 (UAB #129 VS RUSH-Army #1 AGAINST AND FOR RUSHING) 3 UNITS
12:00 Georgia Tech/North Carolina UNDER 60.5 to 61
12:00 Wisconsin+110 ML
12:00 Iowa -140 ML (IOWA SHOULD BE FAVORED BY 4)
12:00 Ball State/Kent UNDER 60.5 to 61

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3:30 TME SLOT

3:30 Virginia+7.5 AND +235 ML (SHOULD BE A PK)

3:30 Northern Illinois+3 and +141 ML (#10 ranked RUSH D and #18 RUSH O)

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4:00 TIME SLOT

4:00 Arizona+3 2 UNITS and +130 ML
4:00 Central Michigan+3 AND +125 ML

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5:00 TIME SLOT

Southern Miss/UL Monroe OVER 41

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7:00 Washington State/Fresno State UNDER 60.5 to 61

7:00 Tennessee-14.5

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7:30 Nevada+3 AND +145 ML

7:30 Appalachian/Louisiana UNDER 64 3 UNITS
7:30 Mississippi/LSU UNDER 64 3 UNITS

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8:00 NC State-105 ML

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Don't fall asleep boys-stay locked in-I will in all likelihood be making some second half moves tonight for the late slate of games. If I can work on my fence and cut tree branches all day long then you can stay locked in

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They seem to have all of the answers-time to switch it up

Florida+6 2nd half

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9:00 ucla +4 and +160 ml

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9:00 Minnesota/UCLA OVER 39

9:00 Ucla+4 /OVER 39 2 WAY PARLAY

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Florida Atlantic+4.5 2nd half

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I may jump in on K-State/Colorado at the half. Just kind of want to see what's gonna win out in rushing vs passing on the field

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Try to get a

Commanders +7 for tomorrow DOUBLE DOWN

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Dang! That one crummy point on my total for Minnesota/Ucla! I needed 39 and they produced 38. Oh well it was a good day overall hitting all three of my 3 UNIT moves

SATURDAY

12:00 Army-27.5 3 UNITS W
12:00 Georgia Tech/North Carolina UNDER 60.5 to 61 L

12:00 Wisconsin+110 ML W
12:00 Iowa -140 ML W
12:00 Ball State/Kent UNDER 60.5 to 61 L


3:30 Virginia+7.5 W
3:30 Virginia 235 ML L


3:30 Northern Illinois+3 W
3:00 Northern Illinois+141 ML W




4:00 Arizona+3 L
4:00 Arizona+130 ML L
4:00 Central Michigan+3 W
4:00 Central Michigan+125 ML L



5:00 Southern Miss/UL Monroe OVER 41 to 41.5 W

7:00 Washington State/Fresno State UNDER 60.5 to 61 W

7:00 Tennessee-14.5 L

7:00 Florida+6 2nd half L


7:30 Nevada+3 W
7:30 Nevada 145 ML W


7:30 Appalachian/Louisiana UNDER 64 3 UNITS W
7:30 Mississippi/LSU UNDER 64 3 UNITS W
7:30 Florida Atlantic+4.5 2nd half L


8:00 NC State-105 ML L


9:00 UCLA +4 PUSH
9:00 UCLA+160 ML L

9:00 Minnesota/UCLA OVER 39 L
9:00 Ucla+4 /OVER 39 2 WAY PARLAY L

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Ok let's get this under way this morning. Why in the heck is a team with a such a poor record favored over a team with a decent record? Two of my favorite categories are covered with this one rushing for and against-meaning that in the trenches as bad as their record is the Jags have an unseen advantage. Another advantage is that the Jags have been across the pond like on the regular so this is familiar ground

Rot.#263 Jags-1 3 UNITS

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sorry about that boys-I was working on my fence

Commanders/Ravens UNDER 52 LIVE BET
Colts/Titans UNDER 43 LIVE BET

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Browns+8.5 LIVE BET

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Alright boys. I just knocked off for the day- I will be back at it again tomorrow to finish off the rest of the fence. Stay locked in

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Patties+2.5 2nd half
stay locked in

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Commanders+1.5 2nd half

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Leave the Browns alone-their only touchdown was a defensive one which is not a good profile

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Don't worry boys-nearly every early game has gone over the total. that will change-every single game in the second slate has a good UNDER number since 2023

Chargers/Broncos 37 (67% UNDER)
Steelers/Raiders 36.5 (100% UNDER)
Falcons/Panthers 46 (90.9% UNDER)
Lions/Cowboys 53 (100% UNDER)
Bengals/Giants 46 (90.9 % UNDER)

Don't believe me-look for yourself

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/odds-history/over-under/?season-filter=since_2023

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So therefore I am on the UNDER in each and every game from this point forward today

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Keep going in the same direction y'all

Chargers/Broncos UNDER 16.5 2nd half
Steelers/Raiders UNDER 17.5 2nd half

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Looks like the Falcons/Panthers game is gonna be one of those anomaly outcomes

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Still going to go in the direction of the information

Falcons/Panthers UNDER 21.5 2nd half
Lions/Cowboys UNDER 24.5 2nd half

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Holy smokes. A lot of good total numbers got blasted today.

Oh well gimme the better team with the good number

Bengals-4