Rays, Red Sox battle in Tampa Bay
Rays, Red Sox battle in Tampa Bay
Tick, tock. Time is starting to run out for the defending AL Champions and if the Rays are going to start a September push back into the postseason, there's not better time than right now with the Red Sox in town to open a three-game set. Nearly a dozen behind the Yankees in the AL East, Tampa Bay is five behind Boston in the Wild Card chase with the Texas Rangers between the two division rivals.
It was the Steal of the Century.
The Tampa Bay Rays fleeced the New York Mets five years ago at the MLB trade deadline, sending pitcher Victor Zambrano to the Mets as part of a package that brought top minor-league prospect Scott Kazmir in return. Zambrano blew out his elbow in 2006; Kazmir went on to win 55 games for the Rays and was twice named an American League All-Star. But it’s all over now. Kazmir was himself traded to the Los Angeles Angels last week for two minor-leaguers and a player to be named later.
It’s very curious indeed for one of the best teams in baseball (71-59, minus-0.65 units) to become a seller at the trade deadline instead of a buyer. The Rays are 11.5 games back of the New York Yankees in the AL East race and five games behind the Boston Red Sox (76-54, 8.27 units) for the Wild Card. Tampa Bay and Boston start a three-game series on Tuesday. This was obviously a long-term financial decision by the Rays, but the “baseball ramifications” will be felt right away – in Game 1 of this series.
Game 1: Jon Lester (-150) vs. Andy Sonnanstine (+140)
Tuesday, 7:08 p.m. (ET)
Sonnanstine is being called up from AAA-Durham to start Tuesday’s opener for Tampa. You may recall him as the pitcher who can hit; Sonnanstine has a .798 OPS in parts of three seasons with the Rays. Sonnanstine (6.61 ERA, 4.73 xFIP) is having a rougher time on the mound this year, but Tampa Bay has bailed him out with 5.60 runs of support, enough to go 7-8 in his 15 starts for just the one unit in losses. He even beat the Red Sox (-114) 6-2 back in May at Tropicana Field.
Lester (3.60 ERA, 3.36 xFIP) is having the best of his four seasons in the majors. The Sox have won 17 of his 26 starts to rack up 4.94 units in profit, but he’s lost five in a row against the Rays and three out of three this year – twice when matched up against Kazmir, as he would have been again in this start.
The Sox are -160 road faves on the early betting odds with a total of nine runs. Boston is only 31-33 (minus-4.90 units) on the road this year and 1-12 in the last 13 away games versus winning teams.
Game 2: Josh Beckett vs. Matt Garza
Wednesday, 7:00 p.m. ESPN
Do hitters ease off at the plate when they know their own pitcher is good? Garza (3.95 ERA, 4.48 xFIP) could be Tampa Bay’s best chance at a win in this series, but the Rays are a flat 13-13 when he starts for a deficit of 3.09 units. Garza has gotten just 3.96 runs of support per game; the under is 18-6-2 when he pitches. Beckett (3.80 ERA, 3.58 xFIP) has a team record of 19-7 in his 26 appearances for 9.48 units of profit. Only three pitchers – including teammate Tim Wakefield (10.22 units) – have pulled in more money for their supporters this season. Beckett is 2-1 against the Rays this year, splitting a pair of matchups with Garza.
Game 3: Clay Buchholz vs. David Price
Thursday, 7:08 p.m.
Garza must be looking enviously at Price (4.63 ERA, 4.61 xFIP), who’s enjoying 5.06 runs of support per game – enough for a team record of 10-7 and 2.09 units in earnings. Price is a towering 6-foot-6 southpaw from Vanderbilt and the No. 1 overall pick in the 2007 draft. He frustrated the Red Sox during the 2008 AL Championship Series with 2.1 shutout innings of relief work, earning the win in Game 2 and the save in Game 7. Price’s first start against the Red Sox was Aug. 5, when he outpitched Brad Penny (now with the San Francisco Giants) for a 6-4 win at home, cashing in at –140.
Buchholz (4.38 ERA, 4.50 xFIP) has had his struggles since that no-hitter in his second career MLB start back in 2007. But he’s thrown four quality starts in his last five games to improve his team record to 5-4 (minus-0.38 units).
Tick, tock. Time is starting to run out for the defending AL Champions and if the Rays are going to start a September push back into the postseason, there's not better time than right now with the Red Sox in town to open a three-game set. Nearly a dozen behind the Yankees in the AL East, Tampa Bay is five behind Boston in the Wild Card chase with the Texas Rangers between the two division rivals.
It was the Steal of the Century.
The Tampa Bay Rays fleeced the New York Mets five years ago at the MLB trade deadline, sending pitcher Victor Zambrano to the Mets as part of a package that brought top minor-league prospect Scott Kazmir in return. Zambrano blew out his elbow in 2006; Kazmir went on to win 55 games for the Rays and was twice named an American League All-Star. But it’s all over now. Kazmir was himself traded to the Los Angeles Angels last week for two minor-leaguers and a player to be named later.
It’s very curious indeed for one of the best teams in baseball (71-59, minus-0.65 units) to become a seller at the trade deadline instead of a buyer. The Rays are 11.5 games back of the New York Yankees in the AL East race and five games behind the Boston Red Sox (76-54, 8.27 units) for the Wild Card. Tampa Bay and Boston start a three-game series on Tuesday. This was obviously a long-term financial decision by the Rays, but the “baseball ramifications” will be felt right away – in Game 1 of this series.
Game 1: Jon Lester (-150) vs. Andy Sonnanstine (+140)
Tuesday, 7:08 p.m. (ET)
Sonnanstine is being called up from AAA-Durham to start Tuesday’s opener for Tampa. You may recall him as the pitcher who can hit; Sonnanstine has a .798 OPS in parts of three seasons with the Rays. Sonnanstine (6.61 ERA, 4.73 xFIP) is having a rougher time on the mound this year, but Tampa Bay has bailed him out with 5.60 runs of support, enough to go 7-8 in his 15 starts for just the one unit in losses. He even beat the Red Sox (-114) 6-2 back in May at Tropicana Field.
Lester (3.60 ERA, 3.36 xFIP) is having the best of his four seasons in the majors. The Sox have won 17 of his 26 starts to rack up 4.94 units in profit, but he’s lost five in a row against the Rays and three out of three this year – twice when matched up against Kazmir, as he would have been again in this start.
The Sox are -160 road faves on the early betting odds with a total of nine runs. Boston is only 31-33 (minus-4.90 units) on the road this year and 1-12 in the last 13 away games versus winning teams.
Game 2: Josh Beckett vs. Matt Garza
Wednesday, 7:00 p.m. ESPN
Do hitters ease off at the plate when they know their own pitcher is good? Garza (3.95 ERA, 4.48 xFIP) could be Tampa Bay’s best chance at a win in this series, but the Rays are a flat 13-13 when he starts for a deficit of 3.09 units. Garza has gotten just 3.96 runs of support per game; the under is 18-6-2 when he pitches. Beckett (3.80 ERA, 3.58 xFIP) has a team record of 19-7 in his 26 appearances for 9.48 units of profit. Only three pitchers – including teammate Tim Wakefield (10.22 units) – have pulled in more money for their supporters this season. Beckett is 2-1 against the Rays this year, splitting a pair of matchups with Garza.
Game 3: Clay Buchholz vs. David Price
Thursday, 7:08 p.m.
Garza must be looking enviously at Price (4.63 ERA, 4.61 xFIP), who’s enjoying 5.06 runs of support per game – enough for a team record of 10-7 and 2.09 units in earnings. Price is a towering 6-foot-6 southpaw from Vanderbilt and the No. 1 overall pick in the 2007 draft. He frustrated the Red Sox during the 2008 AL Championship Series with 2.1 shutout innings of relief work, earning the win in Game 2 and the save in Game 7. Price’s first start against the Red Sox was Aug. 5, when he outpitched Brad Penny (now with the San Francisco Giants) for a 6-4 win at home, cashing in at –140.
Buchholz (4.38 ERA, 4.50 xFIP) has had his struggles since that no-hitter in his second career MLB start back in 2007. But he’s thrown four quality starts in his last five games to improve his team record to 5-4 (minus-0.38 units).