Texas Rangers go for series win at Yankees
Texas Rangers go for series win at Yankees
Last night's loss to Andy Pettitte and the Yankees dropped Texas 2½ games behind the Red Sox in the AL Wild Card chase. Nelson Cruz and the Rangers will try and make up some of that gap in today's matinee.
Maybe now Texas Rangers fans can forgive Chan Ho Park. And Colby Lewis. And maybe even Aaron Myette.
The Rangers have been hitting the cover off the ball for well over a decade. But they haven’t done a very good job keeping runs off the board – until now. Texas is No. 8 in the majors with a team ERA of 4.17, and firmly in the American League playoff hunt at 70-55 with a staggering 18.76 units of profit. Only the Los Angeles Angels (22.80 units) have collected more money this season.
So, who are these great pitchers the Rangers have sprung on unsuspecting handicappers? Actually, we’re looking at the same front end from last year, only with much shinier numbers:
Feldman has won himself a place in our hearts and minds with 9.54 units in profit, but maybe the person we should really be thanking is manager Ron Washington. He’s the man Moneyball readers remember as the fielding guru that trained Scott Hatteberg (Pickin' Machine) to play first base for the Oakland A’s. Washington took over the Rangers dugout after the 2006 season, and his influence can be seen in the development of rookie shortstop Elvis Andrus (.718 OPS, 31 FRAR), whose defense makes him one of the more valuable commodities on the roster.
Both Millwood and Feldman – especially Millwood – have defense to thank for their improved results. Check out these left-on-base percentages:
Variance in LOB percentage is one of the first things to look for when a pitcher’s ERA suddenly rises or falls. Sometimes it’s just the luck of the draw – one year it’s line drives hit directly into someone’s glove, another year it’s all dying quails and groundballs with eyes. In the case of the 2009 Rangers, it’s better defense. The under is 75-43-7 this year, and handicappers can expect those LOB numbers to remain high and scores to remain low all season long.
That includes at the other end of the Texas rotation. Converted reliever Dustin Nippert (3.95 ERA) isn’t generating much of a profit; the Rangers are 3-4 in his seven starts for a grand total of seven bucks in return on betting units of $100. But Nippert and his helpful fielders have played well enough to drive the under to a 6-1 record. He’ll take the mound Thursday afternoon (1:05 p.m. Eastern) against the New York Yankees at new Yankee Stadium; the total is 9.5 runs, and the Yankees were -230 favorites on the early betting odds.
Few people outside the state of Texas (or inside, for that matter) have Nippert on their radar screens. He was a 15th-round draft pick of the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2002, and did very little in parts of three seasons with the Snakes after joining the parent club in 2005. The mediocre results continued after Nippert was traded to the Rangers last year for Jose Marte. But injuries to Matt Harrison and Brandon McCarthy, combined with the ineffectiveness and eventual release of Vicente Padilla (now property of the Dodgers), opened up a spot in the rotation. Nippert has made four straight starts this month and has shown occasional flashes of promise, like striking out 10 Cleveland Indians in a 5-0 loss.
Besides the value of seasoning, one of the factors working on Nippert’s behalf is, surprise surprise, the number of people he’s left stranded on base this year:
2007: 59.7 percent
2008: 67.2 percent
2009: 75.9 percent
Nippert’s 71.2 innings from 2008 are the most he’s ever thrown, so these are relatively small sample sizes we’re working with. But leaving three out of four runners stranded is a very good success rate – only 30 regular starting pitchers in the majors (including Millwood) are in the same boat as Nippert, and Feldman isn’t far behind. Conveniently enough, Yankees starter A.J. Burnett (4.08 ERA, 75.8 percent LOB) is also on that boat. The under is 15-9-1 in his 27 starts overall and 9-3 at new Yankee Stadium. The Yankees won 10 of those 12 games; the average total score was 8.83 runs. What happened to that jet stream, anyway?
Last night's loss to Andy Pettitte and the Yankees dropped Texas 2½ games behind the Red Sox in the AL Wild Card chase. Nelson Cruz and the Rangers will try and make up some of that gap in today's matinee.
Maybe now Texas Rangers fans can forgive Chan Ho Park. And Colby Lewis. And maybe even Aaron Myette.
The Rangers have been hitting the cover off the ball for well over a decade. But they haven’t done a very good job keeping runs off the board – until now. Texas is No. 8 in the majors with a team ERA of 4.17, and firmly in the American League playoff hunt at 70-55 with a staggering 18.76 units of profit. Only the Los Angeles Angels (22.80 units) have collected more money this season.
So, who are these great pitchers the Rangers have sprung on unsuspecting handicappers? Actually, we’re looking at the same front end from last year, only with much shinier numbers:
- Kevin Millwood (5.07 ERA in 2008, 3.63 ERA in 2009)
- Scott Feldman (5.29 ERA in 2008, 3.87 ERA in 2009)
Feldman has won himself a place in our hearts and minds with 9.54 units in profit, but maybe the person we should really be thanking is manager Ron Washington. He’s the man Moneyball readers remember as the fielding guru that trained Scott Hatteberg (Pickin' Machine) to play first base for the Oakland A’s. Washington took over the Rangers dugout after the 2006 season, and his influence can be seen in the development of rookie shortstop Elvis Andrus (.718 OPS, 31 FRAR), whose defense makes him one of the more valuable commodities on the roster.
Both Millwood and Feldman – especially Millwood – have defense to thank for their improved results. Check out these left-on-base percentages:
- Millwood: 68.5 percent in 2008, 79.2 percent in 2009
- Feldman: 63.2 percent in 2008, 74.6 percent in 2009
Variance in LOB percentage is one of the first things to look for when a pitcher’s ERA suddenly rises or falls. Sometimes it’s just the luck of the draw – one year it’s line drives hit directly into someone’s glove, another year it’s all dying quails and groundballs with eyes. In the case of the 2009 Rangers, it’s better defense. The under is 75-43-7 this year, and handicappers can expect those LOB numbers to remain high and scores to remain low all season long.
That includes at the other end of the Texas rotation. Converted reliever Dustin Nippert (3.95 ERA) isn’t generating much of a profit; the Rangers are 3-4 in his seven starts for a grand total of seven bucks in return on betting units of $100. But Nippert and his helpful fielders have played well enough to drive the under to a 6-1 record. He’ll take the mound Thursday afternoon (1:05 p.m. Eastern) against the New York Yankees at new Yankee Stadium; the total is 9.5 runs, and the Yankees were -230 favorites on the early betting odds.
Few people outside the state of Texas (or inside, for that matter) have Nippert on their radar screens. He was a 15th-round draft pick of the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2002, and did very little in parts of three seasons with the Snakes after joining the parent club in 2005. The mediocre results continued after Nippert was traded to the Rangers last year for Jose Marte. But injuries to Matt Harrison and Brandon McCarthy, combined with the ineffectiveness and eventual release of Vicente Padilla (now property of the Dodgers), opened up a spot in the rotation. Nippert has made four straight starts this month and has shown occasional flashes of promise, like striking out 10 Cleveland Indians in a 5-0 loss.
Besides the value of seasoning, one of the factors working on Nippert’s behalf is, surprise surprise, the number of people he’s left stranded on base this year:
2007: 59.7 percent
2008: 67.2 percent
2009: 75.9 percent
Nippert’s 71.2 innings from 2008 are the most he’s ever thrown, so these are relatively small sample sizes we’re working with. But leaving three out of four runners stranded is a very good success rate – only 30 regular starting pitchers in the majors (including Millwood) are in the same boat as Nippert, and Feldman isn’t far behind. Conveniently enough, Yankees starter A.J. Burnett (4.08 ERA, 75.8 percent LOB) is also on that boat. The under is 15-9-1 in his 27 starts overall and 9-3 at new Yankee Stadium. The Yankees won 10 of those 12 games; the average total score was 8.83 runs. What happened to that jet stream, anyway?
