MLB Betting: Dodgers & Giants go green
MLB Betting: Dodgers & Giants go green
While the Dodgers are getting a lot of attention with the best record in the big leagues, and most profit for their backers, Pablo Sandoval and the Giants are slowly making believers out of bettors and fans alike.
The California Gold Rush is alive and well.
We’ve arrived at the unofficial halfway point of the 2009 MLB season, and the big story from both a conventional and a handicapping standpoint is the Los Angeles Dodgers. They lead the majors with a 56-32 record, two games better than the Boston Red Sox. And the Dodgers are the most profitable team by a healthy margin with 17.05 units of cold, hard cash. Not bad for a team that had to play without Manny Ramirez (1.117 OPS) for two months.
But it isn’t just the Dodgers raking in the loot on the Left Coast. Check out what’s been happening late at night while everyone on the Eastern Seaboard is snoozing:
San Francisco Giants (49-39, plus-10.85 units): Life after Barry Bonds looks a lot better with newcomer Pablo Sandoval (.964 OPS, 15 HR) at the hot corner joining the top pitching staff (3.44 ERA) in the bigs.
Los Angeles Angels (49-37, plus-10.24 units): Manager Mike Scioscia always gets the most from the least; his Halos have a run differential of +32 on the season, just one more than the 44-46 Toronto Blue Jays (minus-7.60 units).
Seattle Mariners (46-42, plus-5.60 units): New GM Jack Zduriencik has remodeled this team around value-priced defense, but he’s also gotten surprisingly good offensive results from CF Franklin Gutierrez (1.086 OPS in July).
Not everything is hunky dory out West. The Oakland A’s (37-49, minus-8.40 units) and San Diego Padres (36-52, minus-12.70 units) are stuck in the basements of their respective divisions, much to the delight of the anti-Moneyball contingent that’s very much alive and well in baseball circles. But handicappers are still delighted that the old “East Coast bias” adds value to the betting odds in the Pacific Time Zone.
Zduriencik’s GM work in Seattle has also lined the pockets of Under bettors at a very tasty 51-35 on the season (no pushes included in these stats, by the way). Pitcher-friendly Safeco Field (0.909 park factor for runs going into Sunday’s action) deserves some of the credit, but totals have been adjusting to the warm West Coast air for some time. For example, Dodger Stadium currently has the lowest park factor for runs at 0.798, even lower than San Diego’s infamous Petco Park (0.808). Yet the Under is a relatively mild 21-18 at Chavez Ravine and 21-19 in downtown San Diego. It’s 24-17 at Safeco.
The Under has been a lucrative choice in nearly every corner of the baseball globe this year – except for the new Yankee Stadium, where home runs have been clearing the right-field wall at an abnormal rate. The park factor for homers at the new stadium was 1.492 at press time compared to 0.982 at old Yankee Stadium in 2008. Early theories suggested a wind-tunnel effect was to blame, although the folks at AccuWeather (as quoted in MLB.com last month) say it’s because the new right-field wall is straight to accommodate the auxiliary scoreboard, rather than curved as it was at the old park. Either way, the Over is 23-16 for the Yankees at home compared to 21-22 on the road.
The big-hitting Yankees have taken advantage of their new digs, going 26-16 at home (25-21 away), but don’t reach for your wallet just yet. The Bronx is drowning in chalk – New York is down 4.85 units at the new park and down 0.85 units anywhere else. Other teams have similar “backward” cash splits, none more so than the defending World Champion Philadelphia Phillies, who are 22-23 (minus-11.45 units) at Citizens Bank Park this year and 26-15 (plus-13.70 units) away. This is not normal behavior, even for Philadelphia.
More typical is the way the aforementioned Red Sox dominate at Fenway Park. Boston is 31-14 (plus-7.20 units) at home and 23-20 (minus-0.35 units) on the road, but before we point at all those doubles gobbled up by the Green Monster (1.256 park factor for two-baggers), take note that the under is 25-16 at Fenway and 19-20 on the road. Will the markets adjust in the second half? All these answers and more after the All-Star break.
While the Dodgers are getting a lot of attention with the best record in the big leagues, and most profit for their backers, Pablo Sandoval and the Giants are slowly making believers out of bettors and fans alike.
The California Gold Rush is alive and well.
We’ve arrived at the unofficial halfway point of the 2009 MLB season, and the big story from both a conventional and a handicapping standpoint is the Los Angeles Dodgers. They lead the majors with a 56-32 record, two games better than the Boston Red Sox. And the Dodgers are the most profitable team by a healthy margin with 17.05 units of cold, hard cash. Not bad for a team that had to play without Manny Ramirez (1.117 OPS) for two months.
But it isn’t just the Dodgers raking in the loot on the Left Coast. Check out what’s been happening late at night while everyone on the Eastern Seaboard is snoozing:
San Francisco Giants (49-39, plus-10.85 units): Life after Barry Bonds looks a lot better with newcomer Pablo Sandoval (.964 OPS, 15 HR) at the hot corner joining the top pitching staff (3.44 ERA) in the bigs.
Los Angeles Angels (49-37, plus-10.24 units): Manager Mike Scioscia always gets the most from the least; his Halos have a run differential of +32 on the season, just one more than the 44-46 Toronto Blue Jays (minus-7.60 units).
Seattle Mariners (46-42, plus-5.60 units): New GM Jack Zduriencik has remodeled this team around value-priced defense, but he’s also gotten surprisingly good offensive results from CF Franklin Gutierrez (1.086 OPS in July).
Not everything is hunky dory out West. The Oakland A’s (37-49, minus-8.40 units) and San Diego Padres (36-52, minus-12.70 units) are stuck in the basements of their respective divisions, much to the delight of the anti-Moneyball contingent that’s very much alive and well in baseball circles. But handicappers are still delighted that the old “East Coast bias” adds value to the betting odds in the Pacific Time Zone.
Zduriencik’s GM work in Seattle has also lined the pockets of Under bettors at a very tasty 51-35 on the season (no pushes included in these stats, by the way). Pitcher-friendly Safeco Field (0.909 park factor for runs going into Sunday’s action) deserves some of the credit, but totals have been adjusting to the warm West Coast air for some time. For example, Dodger Stadium currently has the lowest park factor for runs at 0.798, even lower than San Diego’s infamous Petco Park (0.808). Yet the Under is a relatively mild 21-18 at Chavez Ravine and 21-19 in downtown San Diego. It’s 24-17 at Safeco.
The Under has been a lucrative choice in nearly every corner of the baseball globe this year – except for the new Yankee Stadium, where home runs have been clearing the right-field wall at an abnormal rate. The park factor for homers at the new stadium was 1.492 at press time compared to 0.982 at old Yankee Stadium in 2008. Early theories suggested a wind-tunnel effect was to blame, although the folks at AccuWeather (as quoted in MLB.com last month) say it’s because the new right-field wall is straight to accommodate the auxiliary scoreboard, rather than curved as it was at the old park. Either way, the Over is 23-16 for the Yankees at home compared to 21-22 on the road.
The big-hitting Yankees have taken advantage of their new digs, going 26-16 at home (25-21 away), but don’t reach for your wallet just yet. The Bronx is drowning in chalk – New York is down 4.85 units at the new park and down 0.85 units anywhere else. Other teams have similar “backward” cash splits, none more so than the defending World Champion Philadelphia Phillies, who are 22-23 (minus-11.45 units) at Citizens Bank Park this year and 26-15 (plus-13.70 units) away. This is not normal behavior, even for Philadelphia.
More typical is the way the aforementioned Red Sox dominate at Fenway Park. Boston is 31-14 (plus-7.20 units) at home and 23-20 (minus-0.35 units) on the road, but before we point at all those doubles gobbled up by the Green Monster (1.256 park factor for two-baggers), take note that the under is 25-16 at Fenway and 19-20 on the road. Will the markets adjust in the second half? All these answers and more after the All-Star break.