Wainwright, Cardinals look to avoid sweep
Wainwright, Cardinals look to avoid sweep
This series has already seen some fine pitching, Unfortunately for the Cardinals, it's been Giants hurlers that have gotten the job done with Tim Lincecum blanking St. Louis on Monday and Randy Johnson besting Chris Carpenter last night. Now the Redbirds turn to big Adam Wainwright as they look to avoid being swept at home for the first time since the Rockies came to town in early June. ESPN brings you the action beginning at 8:15 (ET).
It’s all about pitching.
When it comes to baseball, there is one man on the diamond who has the outcome literally in the palm of his hand. Everybody else is merely reacting to what the pitcher is doing. Not every baseball GM or ardent statistician will agree with this assessment, but the unforgiving bottom line has trained handicappers to pay more attention to the guys on the mound than anyone else.
We’ve already seen some tremendous pitching in the series between the San Francisco Giants (42-34, plus-8.86 units) and the St. Louis Cardinals (41-38, minus-3.70 units). As it should be; the Giants are tied with the Los Angeles Dodgers for first in the majors with a team ERA of 3.61. St. Louis is tied with the Atlanta Braves for fourth overall with a 3.89 ERA. But the pitching displays in the first two games of their series at the new Busch Stadium were rather one-sided in favor of the Giants. Both games went Over.
We’ll see if the Cardinals can do better Wednesday night, starting at 8:15 p.m. Eastern on ESPN. Adam Wainwright (3.51 ERA, 4.00 xFIP) has a 10-6 team record for St. Louis, good enough for 1.38 units of profit. This is 6-foot-7 and 230 pounds of raw power on the loose; Wainwright is No. 10 in the National League with 89 strikeouts, and he’s gone at least six innings in each of his last 12 starts.
The Giants respond with Matt Cain (2.57 ERA, 4.44 xFIP), who has gone from the outhouse to the penthouse in the MLB money standings. In 2007, even with a solid ERA of 3.65 (4.66 xFIP), Cain was dead last out of 315 starting pitchers with 18.03 units of debt on a team record of 9-23. Fast forward to 2009, and Cain finds himself No. 6 overall with 6.19 units of profit on a team record of 11-4.
So you may have noticed the gaping crevasse between Cain’s ERA and his xFIP, which is indeed higher than Wainwright’s. The Giants have somehow managed to strand 86.7 percent of runners this year with Cain on the mound. This is the highest percentage for any starting pitcher in the majors – Kevin Millwood of the Texas Rangers is next at 85.9 percent. This is also highly unsustainable. More of Cain’s runners are almost certain to cash in as the innings accumulate and his left-on-base percentage regresses to something closer to last year’s 75.3.
Wainwright’s 76.7 LOB percentage is much more consistent with his performance since joining the majors in 2005, the same year as Cain. It’s fair to conclude that Wainwright is likely to have a better night on the mound than Cain. But that’s judging by defense-independent criteria. When you put the defense back in, you can start to see how the Giants have been able to keep the money taps flowing. The Cardinals are No. 8 in the majors with 53 errors; San Fran is No. 24 with just 37 errors. Wainwright has seen five unearned runs go up on the board compared to one for Cain.
The Giants also make it easier for Cain to earn the W with a bullpen ERA of 3.39, or No. 6 overall. The Cards are ranked No. 12 with a 3.97 ERA, and they’ve tossed seven innings of relief over the past two games compared to 3.2 innings for San Francisco. The one positive for St. Louis is that closer Ryan Franklin (0.93 ERA, 3.89 xFIP) is fresh after three days of rest and relaxation. Franklin hasn’t allowed a run, earned or otherwise, in his last 11 appearances dating back to May 20.
To pay lip service to the hitters, we should mention that both teams are pretty bad in this department. St. Louis is No. 19 in the majors with a .735 OPS, and newly acquired Mark DeRosa (.799 OPS with Cleveland this year) might not be able to play third base after reporting a “little tweak” in his left wrist during an at-bat on Tuesday. Joe Thurston (.708 OPS) is a likely candidate to play Wednesday. The Giants are No. 28 in team OPS at an even .700.
The betting odds have St. Louis pegged as a -135 home favorite with a total of 7.5 runs. The Giants are 4-1 against the Cards this year and 12-5 over the past three seasons. Again
This series has already seen some fine pitching, Unfortunately for the Cardinals, it's been Giants hurlers that have gotten the job done with Tim Lincecum blanking St. Louis on Monday and Randy Johnson besting Chris Carpenter last night. Now the Redbirds turn to big Adam Wainwright as they look to avoid being swept at home for the first time since the Rockies came to town in early June. ESPN brings you the action beginning at 8:15 (ET).
It’s all about pitching.
When it comes to baseball, there is one man on the diamond who has the outcome literally in the palm of his hand. Everybody else is merely reacting to what the pitcher is doing. Not every baseball GM or ardent statistician will agree with this assessment, but the unforgiving bottom line has trained handicappers to pay more attention to the guys on the mound than anyone else.
We’ve already seen some tremendous pitching in the series between the San Francisco Giants (42-34, plus-8.86 units) and the St. Louis Cardinals (41-38, minus-3.70 units). As it should be; the Giants are tied with the Los Angeles Dodgers for first in the majors with a team ERA of 3.61. St. Louis is tied with the Atlanta Braves for fourth overall with a 3.89 ERA. But the pitching displays in the first two games of their series at the new Busch Stadium were rather one-sided in favor of the Giants. Both games went Over.
We’ll see if the Cardinals can do better Wednesday night, starting at 8:15 p.m. Eastern on ESPN. Adam Wainwright (3.51 ERA, 4.00 xFIP) has a 10-6 team record for St. Louis, good enough for 1.38 units of profit. This is 6-foot-7 and 230 pounds of raw power on the loose; Wainwright is No. 10 in the National League with 89 strikeouts, and he’s gone at least six innings in each of his last 12 starts.
The Giants respond with Matt Cain (2.57 ERA, 4.44 xFIP), who has gone from the outhouse to the penthouse in the MLB money standings. In 2007, even with a solid ERA of 3.65 (4.66 xFIP), Cain was dead last out of 315 starting pitchers with 18.03 units of debt on a team record of 9-23. Fast forward to 2009, and Cain finds himself No. 6 overall with 6.19 units of profit on a team record of 11-4.
So you may have noticed the gaping crevasse between Cain’s ERA and his xFIP, which is indeed higher than Wainwright’s. The Giants have somehow managed to strand 86.7 percent of runners this year with Cain on the mound. This is the highest percentage for any starting pitcher in the majors – Kevin Millwood of the Texas Rangers is next at 85.9 percent. This is also highly unsustainable. More of Cain’s runners are almost certain to cash in as the innings accumulate and his left-on-base percentage regresses to something closer to last year’s 75.3.
Wainwright’s 76.7 LOB percentage is much more consistent with his performance since joining the majors in 2005, the same year as Cain. It’s fair to conclude that Wainwright is likely to have a better night on the mound than Cain. But that’s judging by defense-independent criteria. When you put the defense back in, you can start to see how the Giants have been able to keep the money taps flowing. The Cardinals are No. 8 in the majors with 53 errors; San Fran is No. 24 with just 37 errors. Wainwright has seen five unearned runs go up on the board compared to one for Cain.
The Giants also make it easier for Cain to earn the W with a bullpen ERA of 3.39, or No. 6 overall. The Cards are ranked No. 12 with a 3.97 ERA, and they’ve tossed seven innings of relief over the past two games compared to 3.2 innings for San Francisco. The one positive for St. Louis is that closer Ryan Franklin (0.93 ERA, 3.89 xFIP) is fresh after three days of rest and relaxation. Franklin hasn’t allowed a run, earned or otherwise, in his last 11 appearances dating back to May 20.
To pay lip service to the hitters, we should mention that both teams are pretty bad in this department. St. Louis is No. 19 in the majors with a .735 OPS, and newly acquired Mark DeRosa (.799 OPS with Cleveland this year) might not be able to play third base after reporting a “little tweak” in his left wrist during an at-bat on Tuesday. Joe Thurston (.708 OPS) is a likely candidate to play Wednesday. The Giants are No. 28 in team OPS at an even .700.
The betting odds have St. Louis pegged as a -135 home favorite with a total of 7.5 runs. The Giants are 4-1 against the Cards this year and 12-5 over the past three seasons. Again
