Chi Town Battle: Cubs take on White Sox
Chi Town Battle: Cubs take on White Sox
Misery may love company, but Cubs and White Sox fans will never mix. The Windy City braces itself for a good old-fashioned civil war this weekend as the two Chicago crews meet on the city's South Side. With each team owning anemic offenses and solid pitching, plate crossings could be few and far between for this three-game set. The White Sox are drawing -140 chalk as the series favorites on their home turf.
The Cubs and White Sox are bringing their familiar brand of misery to the good people of Chicago. These two long-standing MLB institutions are a combined 11 units in the hole this year; the Cubs (34-35, minus-9.01 units) are treading water in the National League Central, and the White Sox (35-37, minus-1.99 units) are doing the same in the American League Central. Only one of them will leave U.S. Cellular Field this weekend with its pride intact.
Scoring runs has been a problem for both teams this season. The White Sox are ranked No. 20 in the majors with a .727 OPS, dropping all the way to .672 OPS at their pitcher-friendly park. The Cubs have a comparable .723 team OPS (No. 23 in the bigs) that should rise after playing three games with the designated hitter. But away from Wrigley Field, their bats go limp with a .696 OPS. The under is 19-13 this year when the Cubs take the road and an impressive 26-10 when the Sox are home.
The betting odds for Friday’s series opener have a total of nine runs up on the board, with both teams priced evenly at -110. Here’s a look at the pitching matchups for all three games.
Game 1, Friday (4:05 p.m., CSN)
Randy Wells vs. Jose Contreras
Wells (2.57 ERA, 4.07 xFIP) has been absolute found treasure for the Cubs, landing back in their laps after the Blue Jays originally took him away in the Rule 5 Draft. He came up from the minors this year to replace Carlos Zambrano during one of his injury layoffs, and Wells has stuck with the big team by serving up six quality starts in eight appearances. The Cubs are 3-5 in those games (minus-3.10 units) with the under checking in at 5-3.
Contreras (5.23 ERA, 4.88 xFIP) is having a rougher time for the Pale Hose, who are 2-7 in his nine starts (the under was 6-3) for a deficit of 5.48 units. But his last three starts have all been quality, with Chicago winning twice, and the veteran northpaw was moved up in the rotation from Thursday specifically to face the Cubs. One problem with that theory: Those Cubs who have faced Contreras before have a combined .990 OPS against him.
Game 2, Saturday (4:05 p.m., FOX)
Ryan Dempster vs. Mark Buehrle
If it wasn’t for bad luck, Dempster (3.83 ERA, 4.22 xFIP) wouldn’t have any luck at all. The Cubs are 5-10 in his 15 starts and 6.89 units in the hole. Run support is quite poor for Dempster at 4.13 per game, once again making the under a strong bet at 9-6. That trend has solidified over the past five games, all quality starts for Dempster and all going under on a combined score of 12-12.
Buehrle (3.17 ERA, 4.23 xFIP) must be stealing all of Dempster’s lucky charms. He’s been showered with 4.79 runs per game in support, not to mention 4.60 units in profit on a team record of 10-4. If you’re not familiar with xFIP, that’s adjusted Fielding Independent Percentage, and these two pitchers are virtually equal in effectiveness according to this fancy metric. Buehrle is stranding a ridiculous 81.3 percent of batters (to 73.5 percent for Dempster) and the under is naturally running to the bank at 10-4.
Game 3, Sunday (2:05 p.m., WGN)
Carlos Zambrano vs. John Danks
Zambrano (3.48 ERA, 4.42 xFIP) is on a roll with five straight quality starts, and when this massive Venezuelan gets going, he’s tough to stop. The Cubs were 3-2 in those starts to improve to 8-4 on the season and 3.29 units in the black. The over/under is split down the middle at six apiece. Zambrano has a .660 OPS this year with a pair of home runs; Micah Hoffpauir (.793 OPS) served as his DH and went deep Thursday night against the Tigers. But Kevin Gregg blew the save in the ninth as Detroit (-120) prevailed 6-5.
White Sox fans are anxious about Danks (4.43 ERA, 4.01 xFIP) and whether last year’s breakthrough campaign was just a flash in the pan. Again, according to the magic xFIP, he’s almost exactly the same pitcher in 2009 as 2008 (3.98 xFIP). The Sox are 7-7 in his 14 starts for 0.08 units in earnings; the under is 8-6, including his last four games in a row.
Misery may love company, but Cubs and White Sox fans will never mix. The Windy City braces itself for a good old-fashioned civil war this weekend as the two Chicago crews meet on the city's South Side. With each team owning anemic offenses and solid pitching, plate crossings could be few and far between for this three-game set. The White Sox are drawing -140 chalk as the series favorites on their home turf.
The Cubs and White Sox are bringing their familiar brand of misery to the good people of Chicago. These two long-standing MLB institutions are a combined 11 units in the hole this year; the Cubs (34-35, minus-9.01 units) are treading water in the National League Central, and the White Sox (35-37, minus-1.99 units) are doing the same in the American League Central. Only one of them will leave U.S. Cellular Field this weekend with its pride intact.
Scoring runs has been a problem for both teams this season. The White Sox are ranked No. 20 in the majors with a .727 OPS, dropping all the way to .672 OPS at their pitcher-friendly park. The Cubs have a comparable .723 team OPS (No. 23 in the bigs) that should rise after playing three games with the designated hitter. But away from Wrigley Field, their bats go limp with a .696 OPS. The under is 19-13 this year when the Cubs take the road and an impressive 26-10 when the Sox are home.
The betting odds for Friday’s series opener have a total of nine runs up on the board, with both teams priced evenly at -110. Here’s a look at the pitching matchups for all three games.
Game 1, Friday (4:05 p.m., CSN)
Randy Wells vs. Jose Contreras
Wells (2.57 ERA, 4.07 xFIP) has been absolute found treasure for the Cubs, landing back in their laps after the Blue Jays originally took him away in the Rule 5 Draft. He came up from the minors this year to replace Carlos Zambrano during one of his injury layoffs, and Wells has stuck with the big team by serving up six quality starts in eight appearances. The Cubs are 3-5 in those games (minus-3.10 units) with the under checking in at 5-3.
Contreras (5.23 ERA, 4.88 xFIP) is having a rougher time for the Pale Hose, who are 2-7 in his nine starts (the under was 6-3) for a deficit of 5.48 units. But his last three starts have all been quality, with Chicago winning twice, and the veteran northpaw was moved up in the rotation from Thursday specifically to face the Cubs. One problem with that theory: Those Cubs who have faced Contreras before have a combined .990 OPS against him.
Game 2, Saturday (4:05 p.m., FOX)
Ryan Dempster vs. Mark Buehrle
If it wasn’t for bad luck, Dempster (3.83 ERA, 4.22 xFIP) wouldn’t have any luck at all. The Cubs are 5-10 in his 15 starts and 6.89 units in the hole. Run support is quite poor for Dempster at 4.13 per game, once again making the under a strong bet at 9-6. That trend has solidified over the past five games, all quality starts for Dempster and all going under on a combined score of 12-12.
Buehrle (3.17 ERA, 4.23 xFIP) must be stealing all of Dempster’s lucky charms. He’s been showered with 4.79 runs per game in support, not to mention 4.60 units in profit on a team record of 10-4. If you’re not familiar with xFIP, that’s adjusted Fielding Independent Percentage, and these two pitchers are virtually equal in effectiveness according to this fancy metric. Buehrle is stranding a ridiculous 81.3 percent of batters (to 73.5 percent for Dempster) and the under is naturally running to the bank at 10-4.
Game 3, Sunday (2:05 p.m., WGN)
Carlos Zambrano vs. John Danks
Zambrano (3.48 ERA, 4.42 xFIP) is on a roll with five straight quality starts, and when this massive Venezuelan gets going, he’s tough to stop. The Cubs were 3-2 in those starts to improve to 8-4 on the season and 3.29 units in the black. The over/under is split down the middle at six apiece. Zambrano has a .660 OPS this year with a pair of home runs; Micah Hoffpauir (.793 OPS) served as his DH and went deep Thursday night against the Tigers. But Kevin Gregg blew the save in the ninth as Detroit (-120) prevailed 6-5.
White Sox fans are anxious about Danks (4.43 ERA, 4.01 xFIP) and whether last year’s breakthrough campaign was just a flash in the pan. Again, according to the magic xFIP, he’s almost exactly the same pitcher in 2009 as 2008 (3.98 xFIP). The Sox are 7-7 in his 14 starts for 0.08 units in earnings; the under is 8-6, including his last four games in a row.
