Baseball Run Lines
Sometimes this game can appear to be all too easy, can it not? Of course I’m talking about baseball run lines. You might spot a perennial powerhouse with their ace going up against the Bad News Bears and their starting pitcher, Adam Lambert. Well you’re no dummy! Instead of eating the huge chalk, you ascertain that there is no way that the favored squad will not win by two or more runs, and play the run line to increase your winnings. Ah, if only it were always this simple.
Point in case – On Tuesday night the Yankees hosted the God-awful Washington Nationals. Now I could’ve played the money line at -365, but why settle for that? That’s some serious chalk. Usually a run line will knock anywhere from 50-100 off of the favorite’s price. But as luck would have it, I was able to grab New York RL all they way down at -175 at Bet Jamaica. Looks like an easy way to double my winnings to me!
But we all know that the books aren’t in the business of giving away easy money. I’ll check back on my game later on.
Run line bettor’s nightmare
The allure of magically turning a -120 favorite into a +170 payday can be strong. Even more so if you win a few in a row. But it is important to pick your moments. No matter how big the discrepancy of talent on the field, it’s still taxing enough just trying to pick a winner, let alone a blowout.
You can see below for the 13 MLB teams with winning records, the percentage of one run victories they have been involved in. Of course they probably were not favored for every one of those, but it can still give you a decent idea of just how many times the RL can beat you, even if the team wins the actual game.
- Dodgers 35%
- Mets 33%
- Angels 32%
- Rangers 31%
- Brewers 28%
- Tigers 27%
- Yankees 27%
- Blue Jays 26%
- Red Sox 26%
- Cardinals 23%
- Rays 23%
- Phillies 22%
- Reds 22%
- Giants 18%
I’m not sure what is more shocking – how high some of those numbers are, or the fact that the Giants have a winning record! But as you can see, even your powerhouse teams only win by more than one run about two out of every three times.
Another stat that will make you think twice before pulling that run line trigger is total team scoring. If you compare the most prolific teams to the most anemic, there is a difference of only two runs per game being put on the scoreboard (NYY 5.70, Sea 3.73). That means that everyone in between is averaging pretty darn close within each other. It all makes me wonder if it would just be wiser to play the other side of the run line.
Of course you can always play the RL the opposite way by playing the underdog who is now getting a run and a half to work with. This can be smart at times, but will turn your +125 play into a -140 team real quick. Most players are greedy (like me) and enjoy taking shots every so often at the big hit. But through my experiences, playing the team getting the runs might not be as sexy a date, but will generally put out more often.
So why did I take the hated Yankees RL? Well, it’s the highest scoring team with CC Sabathia on the mound against the woeful Nats, playing at home where pop flies turn into first row homeruns. So basically, I completely ignored every statistic and warning that I just gave you. So how did I do?
At one point Washington was actually winning the game 3-2. It wasn’t Jeter or A-Rod or Teixeira who won the game for me. Nope, it was Ramiro Pena getting just his fifth RBI of the year in the bottom of the 8th to get me the RL win 5-3. Like I said, these bets are easy money. Now, who’s next?
Thanks Ramiro Pena!
