Papelbon, Red Sox lead MLB's bullpen ratings
Papelbon, Red Sox lead MLB's bullpen ratings
As bullpens become more and more specialized and starting pitchers work fewer and fewer innings, capping the opposing relief corps for a single game is as important as analyzing the starters. Jonathan Papelbon and the Red Sox lead the way up to now in Bullpen ERA, though that single column of stats does not always translate into money at the window. Just ask the Mets, White Sox and Mariners backers.
Getting a handle on starting pitching isn’t the gift horse it was back in the day. Gone is the era of the four-man rotation and attempts by most starters to get into the eighth inning, and in is the advent of the specialized bullpen involving a closer, setup men, and a collection of other arms who rarely go more than an inning.
Sharp bettors know this already, and even some public players have a pretty good idea things ain’t what they used to be. Problem is, most bettors rely too heavily on capping starting pitching at the expense of tracking bullpens, which figure into the outcome as much as who toes the rubber in the first inning.
Because the public is behind the times, betting odds are set with that in mind. Too much emphasis is placed on the starting pitcher, with between 50-65% of the line based on the starter depending on which oddsmaker you talk to. That means there’s value in capping bullpens and making it a larger part of how you assess a line or total.
Bullpens aren’t just about the closer. If you believe in Bill James and sabermetrics, bullpens aren’t really about the closer at all, because they have the easiest, most overrated job in baseball. Closers usually have to pitch only one inning, come into the game with no one on base, and often have the benefit of the lead when they take the ball. As far as James is concerned, the ninth inning is no more important than the first.
The denigration of closers says nothing about the importance of bullpens writ large. Units with balance, versatility, and depth make their teams exponentially better. Clubs with four or five above-average arms in the ‘pen are more profitable than clubs with a dominant closer and not much else.
There are some definite outliers there, and I’ll stress this isn’t a theory as much as an observation. The Mariners and White Sox aren’t profitable despite having excellent work out of the ‘pen, while the Mets are barely in the black armed with the No. 2 bullpen in baseball.
That doesn’t mean there’s not a relationship between a strong bullpen and cashing bets. Of the top six teams on the MLB moneylist (LA Dodgers, Texas, Milwaukee, Philadelphia, Cincinnati, Boston), only one isn’t in the top eight in bullpen ERA. I’ll also note San Francisco (3.80 bullpen ERA – ninth) and St. Louis (4.09 bullpen ERA – 10th) are ninth and 11th on the moneylist.
What do the Red Sox have in the ‘pen that makes them so darn special? They have an excellent closer in Jonathan Papelbon (2.25 ERA), but their strength lies in depth and versatility. Hideki Okajima (2.25 ERA) is an excellent lefthanded setup man, and Takashi Saito (2.70 ERA), Manny Delcarmen (1.13 ERA), and Ramon Ramirez (1.35 ERA) are all superb righthanders. No one is overworked, everyone gets to stay in their role, and there’s plenty of easy innings. It’s not like Papelbon or anyone has to pitch out of their comfort zone.
The Red Sox have the money to afford a good bullpen, but that’s half the battle in the economics of baseball. The Los Angeles Angels have plenty of cash to throw around too, but they currently rank 29th in bullpen ERA (5.66) after failing to resign Francisco Rodriguez (0.70 ERA with the Mets) in the offseason. The Angels made a choice, and it was the wrong one.
It’s not that Rodriguez’s loss alone killed the ‘pen in Anaheim, it’s the pressure his departure forced on otherwise solid relievers who benefited from his ability. Brian Fuentes (4.95 ERA) is decent at the back end, but pitchers like Justin Speier (5.06 ERA), Scot Shields (6.62 ERA), and Jose Arredondo (5.09 ERA) have struggled with increased responsibility.
The Washington Nationals (15-39, -22.38 units) are the worst wager in the league, and they also sport the worst ‘pen. Outside of lefty specialist Ron Villone (no earned runs in 16 innings pitched), the Nationals bullpen has been atrocious, with a 5.79 ERA on the season.
As bullpens become more and more specialized and starting pitchers work fewer and fewer innings, capping the opposing relief corps for a single game is as important as analyzing the starters. Jonathan Papelbon and the Red Sox lead the way up to now in Bullpen ERA, though that single column of stats does not always translate into money at the window. Just ask the Mets, White Sox and Mariners backers.
Getting a handle on starting pitching isn’t the gift horse it was back in the day. Gone is the era of the four-man rotation and attempts by most starters to get into the eighth inning, and in is the advent of the specialized bullpen involving a closer, setup men, and a collection of other arms who rarely go more than an inning.
Sharp bettors know this already, and even some public players have a pretty good idea things ain’t what they used to be. Problem is, most bettors rely too heavily on capping starting pitching at the expense of tracking bullpens, which figure into the outcome as much as who toes the rubber in the first inning.
Because the public is behind the times, betting odds are set with that in mind. Too much emphasis is placed on the starting pitcher, with between 50-65% of the line based on the starter depending on which oddsmaker you talk to. That means there’s value in capping bullpens and making it a larger part of how you assess a line or total.
Bullpens aren’t just about the closer. If you believe in Bill James and sabermetrics, bullpens aren’t really about the closer at all, because they have the easiest, most overrated job in baseball. Closers usually have to pitch only one inning, come into the game with no one on base, and often have the benefit of the lead when they take the ball. As far as James is concerned, the ninth inning is no more important than the first.
The denigration of closers says nothing about the importance of bullpens writ large. Units with balance, versatility, and depth make their teams exponentially better. Clubs with four or five above-average arms in the ‘pen are more profitable than clubs with a dominant closer and not much else.
There are some definite outliers there, and I’ll stress this isn’t a theory as much as an observation. The Mariners and White Sox aren’t profitable despite having excellent work out of the ‘pen, while the Mets are barely in the black armed with the No. 2 bullpen in baseball.
That doesn’t mean there’s not a relationship between a strong bullpen and cashing bets. Of the top six teams on the MLB moneylist (LA Dodgers, Texas, Milwaukee, Philadelphia, Cincinnati, Boston), only one isn’t in the top eight in bullpen ERA. I’ll also note San Francisco (3.80 bullpen ERA – ninth) and St. Louis (4.09 bullpen ERA – 10th) are ninth and 11th on the moneylist.
What do the Red Sox have in the ‘pen that makes them so darn special? They have an excellent closer in Jonathan Papelbon (2.25 ERA), but their strength lies in depth and versatility. Hideki Okajima (2.25 ERA) is an excellent lefthanded setup man, and Takashi Saito (2.70 ERA), Manny Delcarmen (1.13 ERA), and Ramon Ramirez (1.35 ERA) are all superb righthanders. No one is overworked, everyone gets to stay in their role, and there’s plenty of easy innings. It’s not like Papelbon or anyone has to pitch out of their comfort zone.
The Red Sox have the money to afford a good bullpen, but that’s half the battle in the economics of baseball. The Los Angeles Angels have plenty of cash to throw around too, but they currently rank 29th in bullpen ERA (5.66) after failing to resign Francisco Rodriguez (0.70 ERA with the Mets) in the offseason. The Angels made a choice, and it was the wrong one.
It’s not that Rodriguez’s loss alone killed the ‘pen in Anaheim, it’s the pressure his departure forced on otherwise solid relievers who benefited from his ability. Brian Fuentes (4.95 ERA) is decent at the back end, but pitchers like Justin Speier (5.06 ERA), Scot Shields (6.62 ERA), and Jose Arredondo (5.09 ERA) have struggled with increased responsibility.
The Washington Nationals (15-39, -22.38 units) are the worst wager in the league, and they also sport the worst ‘pen. Outside of lefty specialist Ron Villone (no earned runs in 16 innings pitched), the Nationals bullpen has been atrocious, with a 5.79 ERA on the season.