Fade or follow Peavy and San Diego Padres?
Fade or follow Peavy and San Diego Padres?
With eight of the regular season's 26 weeks in the record books we have officially passed the point in the season during which we should hear, "It's still early." The month of June will start to separate the pretenders from the contenders. Can the Phillies get it together, especially on the mound, are Jake Peavy and the Padres going to keep moving up the ranks, and what about the Angels out west?
Believe it or not, the baseball season is hardly young. Now one-third of the way through the campaign, some teams are already at a crucial part of the schedule. While that can be said for almost any club, some franchises could find themselves in a much different position by the time June comes to a close.
The Cleveland Indians are set to see even bigger betting odds with both Grady Sizemore and Travis Hafner banged up, while Cincinnati Reds backers could take a huge hit with Joey Votto on the disabled list. While you should keep your eyes on Ohio, matters are even more interesting in Philadelphia, San Diego, and Los Angeles.
Phade the Phillies?
There’s always reason to avoid putting money on the defending World Series champions because of their status as a public team. Philadelphia doesn’t see much value these days because of its position, although that could be about to change after this month’s schedule is done with the Phillies.
Philadelphia (28-20, +4.13 units, 23-22-3 O/U) is set to play 17 of 26 games on the road in June, with trips to face the Dodgers, Mets, Rays, and Blue Jays. Just for kicks, the Phillies also get to take on the Red Sox at home, making it one hell of a month for their backers.
Profitability during the stretch would be tough enough if Philadelphia had anything resembling a pitching staff. Getting by on their third-ranked offense (5.60 runs per game), the Phils are now without starter Brett Myers (hip) for the season. 4-3 with a 4.66 ERA, Myers has been Philadelphia’s best arm this season – by far.
The Phillies are 16-6 against the moneyline on the road, but my take is two months is too small of an extrapolation. Even closer Brad Lidge (7.71 ERA, 1.84 WHIP) is struggling, to the point where he’s likely to lose his spot at the back of the bullpen.
Know your territory with the Padres
With the Jake Peavy-to-anywhere rumors swirling in San Diego, the Padres (25-25, +3.43 units, 23-24-2 O/U) are quietly surprising bettors by playing .500 baseball in the pedestrian NL West. San Diego was picked by many handicappers to be the worst team in baseball, but they’ve managed to play above their heads despite hitting only .238 (30th in MLB).
You’d think the pitching is the reason the Pads are profitable, but the staff is ranked in the middle of the pack. Peavy (5-5, 3.67 ERA) and Chris Young (4-3, 4.45 ERA) are having pedestrian years by their standards, and the bullpen (4.05 ERA) has been average at best.
The reality is San Diego has a huge homefield advantage at spacious Petco Park. The Padres are 17-6 against the moneyline at home, and because of it they’re 28-21 (+5.36 units) against the runline heading into the week.
The Padres have cashed 12 of their last 15 games coming into June, and they should be able to keep the good times rolling – as long as they’re at home. With the Phillies, Diamondbacks, Mariners, and Rangers slated to come to Petco, there’s plenty of opportunity to ride San Diego this month.
Make or break for Angels
June will tell bettors a lot about where the Halos (25-24, +1.57 units, 24-24-1 O/U) are going and if they’re going to make a push to cash the AL West title. Barely above .500 in the standings and hardly profitable at the window, Los Angeles is 4.5 games back of smoking-hot Texas and in jeopardy of dropping the ball for futures bettors who pegged the Angels to win the division, league, and World Series.
The Angels play 16 of their 25 games in June away from home, starting with a nine-game road trip against Toronto, Detroit, and Tampa Bay. L.A. also has a foray into Arlington to take on the Rangers, and will face the Dodgers back in Anaheim.
It’s not as if the Halos finished May padding bankrolls. Los Angeles has dropped five of its last eight games largely because of a pitching staff that is 20th in baseball with a 4.65 ERA. If the arms can’t turn it around, the Angels are going to bleed cash left and right this month and potentially fall out of the race for the division crown depending on how the Rangers fare.
With eight of the regular season's 26 weeks in the record books we have officially passed the point in the season during which we should hear, "It's still early." The month of June will start to separate the pretenders from the contenders. Can the Phillies get it together, especially on the mound, are Jake Peavy and the Padres going to keep moving up the ranks, and what about the Angels out west?
Believe it or not, the baseball season is hardly young. Now one-third of the way through the campaign, some teams are already at a crucial part of the schedule. While that can be said for almost any club, some franchises could find themselves in a much different position by the time June comes to a close.
The Cleveland Indians are set to see even bigger betting odds with both Grady Sizemore and Travis Hafner banged up, while Cincinnati Reds backers could take a huge hit with Joey Votto on the disabled list. While you should keep your eyes on Ohio, matters are even more interesting in Philadelphia, San Diego, and Los Angeles.
Phade the Phillies?
There’s always reason to avoid putting money on the defending World Series champions because of their status as a public team. Philadelphia doesn’t see much value these days because of its position, although that could be about to change after this month’s schedule is done with the Phillies.
Philadelphia (28-20, +4.13 units, 23-22-3 O/U) is set to play 17 of 26 games on the road in June, with trips to face the Dodgers, Mets, Rays, and Blue Jays. Just for kicks, the Phillies also get to take on the Red Sox at home, making it one hell of a month for their backers.
Profitability during the stretch would be tough enough if Philadelphia had anything resembling a pitching staff. Getting by on their third-ranked offense (5.60 runs per game), the Phils are now without starter Brett Myers (hip) for the season. 4-3 with a 4.66 ERA, Myers has been Philadelphia’s best arm this season – by far.
The Phillies are 16-6 against the moneyline on the road, but my take is two months is too small of an extrapolation. Even closer Brad Lidge (7.71 ERA, 1.84 WHIP) is struggling, to the point where he’s likely to lose his spot at the back of the bullpen.
Know your territory with the Padres
With the Jake Peavy-to-anywhere rumors swirling in San Diego, the Padres (25-25, +3.43 units, 23-24-2 O/U) are quietly surprising bettors by playing .500 baseball in the pedestrian NL West. San Diego was picked by many handicappers to be the worst team in baseball, but they’ve managed to play above their heads despite hitting only .238 (30th in MLB).
You’d think the pitching is the reason the Pads are profitable, but the staff is ranked in the middle of the pack. Peavy (5-5, 3.67 ERA) and Chris Young (4-3, 4.45 ERA) are having pedestrian years by their standards, and the bullpen (4.05 ERA) has been average at best.
The reality is San Diego has a huge homefield advantage at spacious Petco Park. The Padres are 17-6 against the moneyline at home, and because of it they’re 28-21 (+5.36 units) against the runline heading into the week.
The Padres have cashed 12 of their last 15 games coming into June, and they should be able to keep the good times rolling – as long as they’re at home. With the Phillies, Diamondbacks, Mariners, and Rangers slated to come to Petco, there’s plenty of opportunity to ride San Diego this month.
Make or break for Angels
June will tell bettors a lot about where the Halos (25-24, +1.57 units, 24-24-1 O/U) are going and if they’re going to make a push to cash the AL West title. Barely above .500 in the standings and hardly profitable at the window, Los Angeles is 4.5 games back of smoking-hot Texas and in jeopardy of dropping the ball for futures bettors who pegged the Angels to win the division, league, and World Series.
The Angels play 16 of their 25 games in June away from home, starting with a nine-game road trip against Toronto, Detroit, and Tampa Bay. L.A. also has a foray into Arlington to take on the Rangers, and will face the Dodgers back in Anaheim.
It’s not as if the Halos finished May padding bankrolls. Los Angeles has dropped five of its last eight games largely because of a pitching staff that is 20th in baseball with a 4.65 ERA. If the arms can’t turn it around, the Angels are going to bleed cash left and right this month and potentially fall out of the race for the division crown depending on how the Rangers fare.