Originally Posted by
patsfan2727
I think that Nats +1.5 is a donkey play....here's why....
You are laying (-115) juice on a team which SUCKS on the road, SUCKS at home, versus Derek Lowe, at home, in their home opener.
If you choose to bet the nats ML at +190 thats fine, do your thing.
Cocknocker, please convince me how getting that extra 1.5 runs is worth the $1.05 in juice?
You're essentially cutting your possible profits in half just in case the nats happen to lose by 1 run.
Seriously, I really don't understand how you can be so confident in this play.
Once again, if you want a -115 solid bet, I'm pretty sure the nats are one of the worst.
Everyone talks smack on taking the favorite on the RL...but I look at it like this
You can take a favorite (braves -200) and essentially get them at + money or even money
You can take a dog (nats +190) and essentially make them -115 or worse, just to get a measly 1.5 runs help.
If you like to bet the dogs, thats cool. However you will not sway my opinion that changing a +190 dog to a -115 "favorite" is a "smart play"