MLB Leans ~ Friday 4/10/09

[repski]

Texas +125

Rolling with the hot team and getting paid to do it.....Texas will find a way...

[whatisit]

Wow Miguel Cabrera is on fire to start this season

[TAPDATBOOK]

DETROIT & OVER


Texas is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games when playing DetroitThe total has gone OVER in 4 of Texas's last 6 games when playing DetroitTexas is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Detroit

Detroit is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Texas

this ticket is looking good so far

[TAPDATBOOK]

DETROIT & OVER


Texas is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games when playing DetroitThe total has gone OVER in 4 of Texas's last 6 games when playing DetroitTexas is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Detroit

Detroit is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Texas

cashed over 8.5

[The_Kid]

Where did you get 8.5? Total never opened that low...

[Dexter]

Derek Lowe isn't the problem today. The problem is the unknown pitcher throwing to unfamiliar batters. By the time they figure out what he is throwing the Nats will have the early lead because of their familiarity with Derek Lowe, especially Adam Dunn, a perennial 40 home run 100 rbi guy. I say that he cranks one out with a guy on before the 5th inning. And if they get the lead at any time in this game it's basically over becuse they also play small ball when guys get on base. The Nats +1.5 is the correct call on this one

first off, if you like the nats, you would be a fool not to play them on the ML. the correct call is not to lay odds with martis and the nats. if you like the nats, take the +180.

martis is not an awful pitcher - i made no mention of that as my reason for playing the braves.

i dont bet on or against teams when someone is an "unknown."

i watched martis last year and hes a decent back of the rotation guy. he has a 91mph fastball to go along with a good changeup that sits around 80. he also has an ok slider and curve.

the braves already saw him and beat him last year in atl. 5 inn, 2er, 4hits, and 5 walks. a decent performance, but the brave hitters have seen him.

sounds to me like you're playing the nats today with so much focus on discussing the game

[Dexter]

that doesnt matter it was last season

you dont think historical results mean anything in certain spots?

last season wasnt too far around the corner - schappdawg

[TAPDATBOOK]

Where did you get 8.5? Total never opened that low...

oh shitss, you r right, it is 10 , i mess it up with chicago and milwaukee total, sorryssss

[The_Kid]

oh shitss, you r right, it is 10 , i mess it with chicago and milwaukee total, sorryssss

Haha, no worries. I got it at 9.5 so I need one more run here!

[Dexter]

I guess we can just give the 2010 CY Young award to Mr. Lowe already. Not sure where everyone is seeing a blowout. These are the games if you bet throughtout the year you lose lots of cash. Not willing to lay big chalk with a pitcher who had 1 good outing against a pitcher the braves no nothing about and these type of pitchers can and have gone out and had a quality start. Gl with the Braves play.

first off schappy - welcome back. i see you went on a long hiatus.

didnt you once say you knew nothing about betting baseball or the game of baseball? in this post you sound like a man with a tremendous history betting the sport.

the braves actually did face him last year, so not sure what you're talking about there. derek lowe is also not just being played on my end b/c of one game. he has a pretty solid track record in the league and vs the nats.

and lastly, im not laying "big chalk" as my money line is even. yes i have to win by 2 runs, but thats cool with me at even money.

[TAPDATBOOK]

Haha, no worries. I got it at 9.5 so I need one more run here!

good luck to you, 1 more for u to cash and to tie for me, i just check my ticket it is at 10 f****that, but it is ok there are still lots of innings to go.

[Dexter]

There is run chalk and no i dont like run lines..the are sucker bets if u ask me..there are always better dog plays out there that cash more bol

did i misunderstand you schaap - did you not say a few months ago that you knew nothing about the game of baseball?

thats the common perception - people feel that they need to play underdogs in baseball b/c they are "sexy." they think it makes them look like a genius to have said they had a +170 dog, when in actuality they rarely hit those plays. if you make lots of plays each day, then perhaps you should focus on underdogs.

i keep it simple in baseball and look for the games i think have the best chance of winning. my plays are split up between slight favs, dogs, totals and run line plays. being that i make only a handful of bets each day, i just look for the games that i feel strongest will win.

[Dexter]

Everyone keep betting the braves so i can get 2-1 on the nats

look at schappy!! hes back.

whats up with the hostility man? did you think people will all be on the same side of all picks in a sports forum. you, ck, danrman all like the nats, so what in the world are you talking about?

[Dexter]

If you choose to bet the nats ML at +190 thats fine, do your thing.

Cocknocker, please convince me how getting that extra 1.5 runs is worth the $1.05 in juice?
You're essentially cutting your possible profits in half just in case the nats happen to lose by 1 run.
Seriously, I really don't understand how you can be so confident in this play.

Once again, if you want a -115 solid bet, I'm pretty sure the nats are one of the worst.

Everyone talks smack on taking the favorite on the RL...but I look at it like this

You can take a favorite (braves -200) and essentially get them at + money or even money

You can take a dog (nats +190) and essentially make them -115 or worse, just to get a measly 1.5 runs help.

If you like to bet the dogs, thats cool. However you will not sway my opinion that changing a +190 dog to a -115 "favorite" is a "smart play"

i completely agree with this.

[The_Kid]

good luck to you, 1 more for u to cash and to tie for me, i just check my ticket it is at 10 f****that, but it is ok there are still lots of innings to go.

OVER cashes!

[Dexter]

cocknocker will be posting a heavy play in a little while.

[Dexter]

lol jshap what are you talking about?

martis is a good pitcher and there's a lot of value in the nationals at +190 and your reasons are horrible

nice post as usual VC. love your comments

way to attack someone rather then constructively disagreeing with someone and intelligently discussing the game.

i guess i need to realize that half of you are prob 18 year old kids who are just getting emotional over their $25 bets.

[Dexter]

Not that I disagree with the Braves pick entirely, but Martis has some potential. In four starts as a september callup last year, he got beaten up by the Mets in one start, but the other three were decent. Add to that, he put up solid numbers this spring. I think that later in the season he'll be higher than #4 in the rotation.

Writing off "unknown" pitchers can cost you a lot of money.

see this post - constructively disagreed with someones play. great post sk

i have no problem with someone disagreeing with a play i make - heck, i hate when everyone agrees to be honest. but the way some of you have gone about it has been a complete joke.

[chrisharvard01]

Not that I disagree with the Braves pick entirely, but Martis has some potential. In four starts as a september callup last year, he got beaten up by the Mets in one start, but the other three were decent. Add to that, he put up solid numbers this spring. I think that later in the season he'll be higher than #4 in the rotation.

Writing off "unknown" pitchers can cost you a lot of money.

Agree

[cocknocker]

I think that Nats +1.5 is a donkey play....here's why....

You are laying (-115) juice on a team which SUCKS on the road, SUCKS at home, versus Derek Lowe, at home, in their home opener.

If you choose to bet the nats ML at +190 thats fine, do your thing.

Cocknocker, please convince me how getting that extra 1.5 runs is worth the $1.05 in juice?
You're essentially cutting your possible profits in half just in case the nats happen to lose by 1 run.
Seriously, I really don't understand how you can be so confident in this play.

Once again, if you want a -115 solid bet, I'm pretty sure the nats are one of the worst.

Everyone talks smack on taking the favorite on the RL...but I look at it like this

You can take a favorite (braves -200) and essentially get them at + money or even money

You can take a dog (nats +190) and essentially make them -115 or worse, just to get a measly 1.5 runs help.

If you like to bet the dogs, thats cool. However you will not sway my opinion that changing a +190 dog to a -115 "favorite" is a "smart play"

I don't have any idea why everyone thinks that i am playing the Nats when it is abundantly clear that i am not with even the most brief glance at my big board. And secondly if i can get a 2 run cushion at +105 with the consensus being 90% to 10% for the favorite, then why not? I like insurance, and isn't the runline for the dog more insurance than taking them straight? Next thing I'll be hearing that it doesn't make sense to buy a hook or a point or two in basketball when I know fully well that it does. After all if I were playing this game it would be with my money, and from the history that I have I think that it is a safe assumption that I know what I am doing whether or not you agree with how I would approach this play. the fact is that th Braves is the wrong call on this game.

Don't get your jock straps all up in a bunch because yu made a very public and incorrect call. It happens. You will find out with your money later on.

[Dexter]

Don't get your jock straps all up in a bunch because yu made a very public and incorrect call. It happens. You will find out with your money later on.

if you feel that strongly, then im not getting why you are not placing money on the game.

right?

if the braves win, you can say that you didnt place a bet on the nats - yet if the nats win, you can play the "i told you so" game.

im not feeling that cocknocker. you know i love you, but i dont see the point in that.

[CUAIrish]

No time for a write up at the moment, but booked plays:

1H Phil -.5 EV
1H Rays -.5 +115
1H Cubs -.5 -105


I like your play on Lowe Dex, but the monies not right for me on this one.

[cocknocker]

Also-ran Mike Hampton is out of sorts and is a horrid pitcher. Just because he is back at Houston doesn't mean that he will recapture the magic of 1999. This guy sucks. Piniero is no better, but the Cardinals fans are not happy after getting a split with the Pirates. The line movement is correct for the consensus to be in the favor of the favorite, and it has gone up accordingly. Until Hampton proves he can win consistently he is auto fade material. Every now and then I take a few big shots at baseball and this is one of them. The harvest work for my buddy is over and now I can look at games a little more. This one has Red Birds written all over it. I will find out with 4 dimes and make this a HEAVY play with caramel sauce and nuts.

Cardinals-140 (this is about as high as I will go on vigorish) HEAVY

[Dexter]

wow, the tigers came out swinging today - fading benson seems logical now.

[CUAIrish]

wow, the tigers came out swinging today - fading benson seems logical now.

I loved the loppsided matchup between Galaraga and Benson. Kicking myself for sleeping in so long on my day off. I didnt entirely expect THIS score, but I felt Tigers were good for 1H -.5

[cocknocker]

if you feel that strongly, then im not getting why you are not placing money on the game.

right?

if the braves win, you can say that you didnt place a bet on the nats - yet if the nats win, you can play the "i told you so" game.

im not feeling that cocknocker. you know i love you, but i dont see the point in that.

I feel strongly about this game, but I found stronger games out there to play. I only keep talking about it because everyone else is talking about it. And also you know it's not my style to say I told you so after the game is over. I mean i actually hope that you're right so that you can get paid. The Nats are like a man laying down in a corn field with a pitchfork placed at a 45 degree angle. As you come running up you'd better be aware. He's more dangerous than the fellas you're running from who have guns. Good luck to you and all Braves supporters

[cocknocker]

Besides i made mention that I am going baseball crazy today! I am barely even playing basketball. I think I ended up putting out roughly 7.5 dimes overall because I played the 1st innings also. I am drunk with gambling fever! This is easily the most I have slung in a couple of weeks, but everything kept on lookiing so good to me after i did my research. More than likely I will go back to my one or two games tomorrow!

[Killer Chihuahua]

Love the Cards today as well....but only in the 1st half. Once you get into the Astros pen, they are pretty strong. The Astros starting rotation is really bad, and HAMPTON is washed up! He will give up 3 homers by the 4th inning but he might hit one out himself too. Hampton might be better off playing in the out field as he is a better position player than a pitcher these days

Cards 1st half

[TAPDATBOOK]

OVER cashes!

Cash both ticket, the tigers came out swinging today

[TAPDATBOOK]

Cardinals-140 (this is about as high as I will go on vigorish) HEAVY[/quote]


CK, I love this pick. My book is only Card -130, is it still a good play?? thanks

[Dexter]

tapda - why would it not be a good play still at -130?

he already said he was putting 4 dimes on the game when his usual baseball bet is in the hundreds..lol

[cocknocker]

Cardinals-140 (this is about as high as I will go on vigorish) HEAVY

CK, I love this pick. My book is only Card -130, is it still a good play?? thanks[/quote]


Yes it is. I have Greek and I mad emy play after the PC's made their plays, so I got a worse line than they did. So of course the -130 is good. i only wish that I could have gotten it at that number

[RoagBettor]

I played Cards 1st 5 innings +1/2 +105

[RoagBettor]

Cards are -138 at Bookmaker right now for the whole game

[cocknocker]

tapda - why would it not be a good play still at -130?

he already said he was putting 4 dimes on the game when his usual baseball bet is in the hundreds..lol

I couldn't have said it any better myself