4/18/17
17-14-1, RoR +26.3% (vs 11/10 odds 66.2%)
Brewers, FG, +158, Nelson / Anderson
Rockies, FG, +152, Freeland / Ryu
For the sake of the football-basketball mentality that places much of its faith in W/L percentage I have added the math of what would be required to turn a 26.3% RoR versus 11/10 odds in foots or buckets.
The substantial difference is created by the mathematical fact a wager at 11/10 odds returns 90.91% as profit of the amount wagered if you win. The 17-14 (54.8%) I have posted to date has returned a profit of 23.6% of all amounts wagered and a +123.3 average line versus 90.91 is why it would require a 66.2% win rate to win 23.6% at 11/10.
Literally thousands (millions?) of bettors are stuck in the win % mind-set and will NEVER study the true mathematics of sports gambling, but any mathematician can easily assure you that what I am posting here is totally correct.
It does no good to argue the point with the close-minded, but some of you are studying these things and that is why I point them out. Comparing football-basketball 11/10 odds versus money line odds in baseball is like comparing them to the odds in craps, blackjack or roulette. We are talking different worlds.
Football, basketball and baseball are all team sports, but the wagering on them is radically different and anyone venturing into baseball must ask himself, first and foremost, “Do I want to win games, or money?”
The real and true basis of successful baseball wagering is true probability versus quoted odds.
Today’s choices are mathematically simple. I do not believe the Cubs and Dodgers, respectively, hold 62.7% and 61.8% chances of winning their respective games. If I am correct about either one of those games my win % does not go up, but my bankroll does.
BOL
17-14-1, RoR +26.3% (vs 11/10 odds 66.2%)
Brewers, FG, +158, Nelson / Anderson
Rockies, FG, +152, Freeland / Ryu
For the sake of the football-basketball mentality that places much of its faith in W/L percentage I have added the math of what would be required to turn a 26.3% RoR versus 11/10 odds in foots or buckets.
The substantial difference is created by the mathematical fact a wager at 11/10 odds returns 90.91% as profit of the amount wagered if you win. The 17-14 (54.8%) I have posted to date has returned a profit of 23.6% of all amounts wagered and a +123.3 average line versus 90.91 is why it would require a 66.2% win rate to win 23.6% at 11/10.
Literally thousands (millions?) of bettors are stuck in the win % mind-set and will NEVER study the true mathematics of sports gambling, but any mathematician can easily assure you that what I am posting here is totally correct.
It does no good to argue the point with the close-minded, but some of you are studying these things and that is why I point them out. Comparing football-basketball 11/10 odds versus money line odds in baseball is like comparing them to the odds in craps, blackjack or roulette. We are talking different worlds.
Football, basketball and baseball are all team sports, but the wagering on them is radically different and anyone venturing into baseball must ask himself, first and foremost, “Do I want to win games, or money?”
The real and true basis of successful baseball wagering is true probability versus quoted odds.
Today’s choices are mathematically simple. I do not believe the Cubs and Dodgers, respectively, hold 62.7% and 61.8% chances of winning their respective games. If I am correct about either one of those games my win % does not go up, but my bankroll does.
BOL
