Giants, A's and Reds turning profit on runline
Giants, A's and Reds turning profit on runline
Despite having very little offense and being in the red on the moneyline this season, the San Francisco Giants are turning a profit for their runline backers, thanks in part to the pitching of young Tim Lincecum.
Where did all the chalk go?
It seems we’ve got some parity brewing in Major League Baseball this year. The usual big-market suspects are still doing all right (Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers), but look who else has decided to start playing some good baseball. The Braves and Reds are each 23-20, while over in the American League, the Rangers (26-17) and Tigers (24-18) lead their respective divisions.
The underdogs have taken a huge bite out of the betting pie. Looking at Monday’s betting odds on the full slate of 15 games, the biggest favorites are the Mets and Cubs, both playing at home at -165. Chicago (21-21) is already under a big pile of debt at minus-5.03 units, and fans on the North Side are getting restless after seven straight losses.
Ah, but that’s 5.03 units of debt against the moneyline. Those intrepid fans who have supported the Cubs on the runline are only down 0.17 units with the same 21-21 record ATS. Chicago has been the underdog nine times this year and has lost eight, but three of those defeats were by a single run. Those would have been paydays against the spread at Cubs +1.5. Even better, they’ve pounded the runline 17 times out of 21 as the favorite.
This year’s best runline team thus far is Cincinnati at 28-15 ATS and 13.28 units in the black. The Reds haven’t had a winning season since 2000, but this year’s pitching staff is ranked No. 10 in the majors with a 4.08 ERA, including six shutouts – tied with Detroit for first overall. Although the hitting is a bit below standard at .741 OPS (No. 19), that’s still an improvement over last year’s .729 OPS and enough for the Reds to cover five of their last six outings.
Cincinnati is also doing well against the moneyline at 5.34 units. However, not every team can make the leap. The Blue Jays are 27-20 and 5.60 units to the good, until you move them over to the runline, where they’re 22-25 ATS and 4.62 units out of pocket. Let’s take a moment to identify the five teams who benefit the most and the least from making the transition.
Runline Princes
1. San Francisco Giants: minus-3.96 to plus-5.21 (9.19 units)
2. Oakland Athletics: minus-8.00 to plus-0.26 (8.26 units)
3. Cincinnati Reds: plus-5.34 to plus-13.28 (7.94 units)
4. Chicago White Sox: minus-6.28 to plus-1.03 (7.31 units)
5. Kansas City Royals: plus-1.14 to plus-8.42 (7.28 units)
Runline Paupers
1. Toronto Blue Jays: plus-5.60 to minus-4.62 (10.22 units)
2. Houston Astros: minus-4.97 to minus-11.94 (6.97 units)
3. Los Angeles Dodgers: plus-12.54 to plus-5.68 (6.86 units)
4. New York Yankees: minus-2.02 to minus-7.38 (5.36 units)
5. Arizona Diamondbacks: minus-7.28 to minus-12.32 (5.04 units)
Say hello again to the Yankees and Dodgers. The situation is clearly worse in the Bronx, where the usual spate of injuries has taken its toll and left the 25-19 Bombers with one of the worst pitching staffs in the majors at a 5.17 team ERA. Yet they’ve only been the underdogs five times this year. The 30-15 Dodgers have had twice as many opportunities at +1.5, and with an MLB-best 3.62 team ERA have given their bats a much better chance of winning by at least two runs when they’re favored. The downside is that they play at low-scoring Dodger Stadium (0.919 park factor for runs) and have won seven of 18 games there by a single run.
With those figures in mind, here are three upcoming games I’m targeting as stronger value plays on the runline:
Atlanta at San Francisco (Medlen vs. Lincecum)
Tuesday, May 26, 10:15 p.m. (ET)
Lincecum has led the Giants to a 5-4 record this year, but also 5-4 ATS, each time as the favorite.
San Diego at Arizona (Peavy vs. Buckner)
Wednesday, May 27, 9:40 p.m. (ET)
Arizona is 9-15 at home. Peavy has five straight quality starts at just 2-3, but covering his last two as the chalk and turning an SU loss into an ATS win.
Cincinnati at Milwaukee (Cueto vs Bush)
Saturday, May 30, 7:05 p.m.
Cueto has a 2.37 ERA in nine starts and has won his last five in a row ATS.
Despite having very little offense and being in the red on the moneyline this season, the San Francisco Giants are turning a profit for their runline backers, thanks in part to the pitching of young Tim Lincecum.
Where did all the chalk go?
It seems we’ve got some parity brewing in Major League Baseball this year. The usual big-market suspects are still doing all right (Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers), but look who else has decided to start playing some good baseball. The Braves and Reds are each 23-20, while over in the American League, the Rangers (26-17) and Tigers (24-18) lead their respective divisions.
The underdogs have taken a huge bite out of the betting pie. Looking at Monday’s betting odds on the full slate of 15 games, the biggest favorites are the Mets and Cubs, both playing at home at -165. Chicago (21-21) is already under a big pile of debt at minus-5.03 units, and fans on the North Side are getting restless after seven straight losses.
Ah, but that’s 5.03 units of debt against the moneyline. Those intrepid fans who have supported the Cubs on the runline are only down 0.17 units with the same 21-21 record ATS. Chicago has been the underdog nine times this year and has lost eight, but three of those defeats were by a single run. Those would have been paydays against the spread at Cubs +1.5. Even better, they’ve pounded the runline 17 times out of 21 as the favorite.
This year’s best runline team thus far is Cincinnati at 28-15 ATS and 13.28 units in the black. The Reds haven’t had a winning season since 2000, but this year’s pitching staff is ranked No. 10 in the majors with a 4.08 ERA, including six shutouts – tied with Detroit for first overall. Although the hitting is a bit below standard at .741 OPS (No. 19), that’s still an improvement over last year’s .729 OPS and enough for the Reds to cover five of their last six outings.
Cincinnati is also doing well against the moneyline at 5.34 units. However, not every team can make the leap. The Blue Jays are 27-20 and 5.60 units to the good, until you move them over to the runline, where they’re 22-25 ATS and 4.62 units out of pocket. Let’s take a moment to identify the five teams who benefit the most and the least from making the transition.
Runline Princes
1. San Francisco Giants: minus-3.96 to plus-5.21 (9.19 units)
2. Oakland Athletics: minus-8.00 to plus-0.26 (8.26 units)
3. Cincinnati Reds: plus-5.34 to plus-13.28 (7.94 units)
4. Chicago White Sox: minus-6.28 to plus-1.03 (7.31 units)
5. Kansas City Royals: plus-1.14 to plus-8.42 (7.28 units)
Runline Paupers
1. Toronto Blue Jays: plus-5.60 to minus-4.62 (10.22 units)
2. Houston Astros: minus-4.97 to minus-11.94 (6.97 units)
3. Los Angeles Dodgers: plus-12.54 to plus-5.68 (6.86 units)
4. New York Yankees: minus-2.02 to minus-7.38 (5.36 units)
5. Arizona Diamondbacks: minus-7.28 to minus-12.32 (5.04 units)
Say hello again to the Yankees and Dodgers. The situation is clearly worse in the Bronx, where the usual spate of injuries has taken its toll and left the 25-19 Bombers with one of the worst pitching staffs in the majors at a 5.17 team ERA. Yet they’ve only been the underdogs five times this year. The 30-15 Dodgers have had twice as many opportunities at +1.5, and with an MLB-best 3.62 team ERA have given their bats a much better chance of winning by at least two runs when they’re favored. The downside is that they play at low-scoring Dodger Stadium (0.919 park factor for runs) and have won seven of 18 games there by a single run.
With those figures in mind, here are three upcoming games I’m targeting as stronger value plays on the runline:
Atlanta at San Francisco (Medlen vs. Lincecum)
Tuesday, May 26, 10:15 p.m. (ET)
Lincecum has led the Giants to a 5-4 record this year, but also 5-4 ATS, each time as the favorite.
San Diego at Arizona (Peavy vs. Buckner)
Wednesday, May 27, 9:40 p.m. (ET)
Arizona is 9-15 at home. Peavy has five straight quality starts at just 2-3, but covering his last two as the chalk and turning an SU loss into an ATS win.
Cincinnati at Milwaukee (Cueto vs Bush)
Saturday, May 30, 7:05 p.m.
Cueto has a 2.37 ERA in nine starts and has won his last five in a row ATS.