Good time to fade...
Logic would be:
1: lack of motivation, already in the playoffs
2: give the new guys a chance to shine
3: inflated numbers b/c public still likes the 90+ teams
Back testing results (since 2004)
ML: 370-326 (ave line -148.4) (+45.52)- risking (100) the line to win one on favorites and risking one to win the line on dog). Not bad 6% return since '04.
Inflated numbers???? I checked dogs..
Dogs: 70-81 (-15.68)- fading. Surprising profit it you played them!
So this tells me it's a good bet to fade favorites of those winning (90+) teams going into playoffs.
Not going to break it down per year, but last year LOST and there were 4 losing years out 11.
I did back fit it though
.
Never a losing year!
1. 90+ wins
2. Fav of no more than 174
3. Eliminate bad pitchers, high line totals of <9.5
4. catch games 162>game number>155.
Results:
Fading 45-72 (+49.35) never losing year since 2004...
Last year only 2-2 (+.75), will track this years 90+ winners!
Logic would be:
1: lack of motivation, already in the playoffs
2: give the new guys a chance to shine
3: inflated numbers b/c public still likes the 90+ teams
Back testing results (since 2004)
ML: 370-326 (ave line -148.4) (+45.52)- risking (100) the line to win one on favorites and risking one to win the line on dog). Not bad 6% return since '04.
Inflated numbers???? I checked dogs..
Dogs: 70-81 (-15.68)- fading. Surprising profit it you played them!
So this tells me it's a good bet to fade favorites of those winning (90+) teams going into playoffs.
Not going to break it down per year, but last year LOST and there were 4 losing years out 11.
I did back fit it though
.Never a losing year!
1. 90+ wins
2. Fav of no more than 174
3. Eliminate bad pitchers, high line totals of <9.5
4. catch games 162>game number>155.
Results:
Fading 45-72 (+49.35) never losing year since 2004...
Last year only 2-2 (+.75), will track this years 90+ winners!