2015 SDQL Baseball Thread

**escism** · 05-03-15, 06:58 AM

Originally posted by Alex Vaile

Season to date: 34-24 + 13.04 units
Today's results: 4-1 + 2.96 units.

Yankees, Brewers under, Astros, and A's over winners and Astros under a loser.

Great work Alex!

**escism** · 05-03-15, 08:14 AM

I'm jumping on the Reds RL today

**Alex Vaile** · 05-03-15, 09:38 AM

Today's plays:

Play Orioles -117

H and p:margin >= 3 and op:runs = 0 and WP < 60 and o:WP > 38.5 and line > -230 and conference = o:conference and (month != 7 and month != 8) and 2008 <= season and SG > 1 and total > 6.5 (JMon)

**Alex Vaile** · 05-03-15, 10:13 AM

Play Brewers + 145
Play Angels -105
Play White Sox + 110
Play Yankees + 128

AD and tS(o:hits-starter hits + o:walks - starter walks) / tS(9-starter innings pitched) <= 1.15 and line <= 150 and month < 9 and rest < 2 ( bking )

Not much time today and this query spit out a bunch of games today so just going to roll w that for now. Best of luck to all that follow!

**Alex Vaile** · 05-03-15, 10:22 AM

Originally posted by escism

Great work Alex!

Thanks. Ya Cueto has been solid for sure. Careful as he's only 19 and 25 against the RL in 44 starts. The under is 16 and 26 unders in this situation too so maybe close games. He's never faced Braves as an AF

**Alex Vaile** · 05-03-15, 10:55 AM

Play Under 8.5 -110 Blue Jays vs Indians (2 units)

team=Indians and DAY and F and line>-165 and p:hits<=6 and p:L and 20050828<=date (JMon)

Amazing 3-23 under in this spot.

**Alex Vaile** · 05-03-15, 01:29 PM

Originally posted by Alex Vaile

Play Under 8.5 -110 Blue Jays vs Indians (2 units)

team=Indians and DAY and F and line>-165 and p:hits<=6 and p:L and 20050828<=date (JMon)

Amazing 3-23 under in this spot.

Well so much for this one. Done in the 5th

**inZane** · 05-03-15, 05:02 PM

So now it's 4-23, I'd still take the under again. Thanks for the posts Alex...

**Alex Vaile** · 05-03-15, 05:57 PM

Originally posted by Alex Vaile

Thanks. Ya Cueto has been solid for sure. Careful as he's only 19 and 25 against the RL in 44 starts. The under is 16 and 26 unders in this situation too so maybe close games. He's never faced Braves as an AF

Damn unfortunately i kind of called that one. Braves and under. Wish I put it in my picks today

**Alex Vaile** · 05-03-15, 06:12 PM

Last play:

Play Over 9 -105 Yankees vs Red Sox

team=Yankees and AD and o:team=Red Sox
starter = Joe Kelly and HF
starter= Adam Warren and AD
team=Red Sox and HF and p:L and pp:L and o:team=Yankees and NGT

**16johnnymac** · 05-03-15, 06:18 PM

Yanks win !!

**Alex Vaile** · 05-04-15, 12:48 AM

Season to date : 38-27 + 13.52 units
Today's results : 4-3 + .48 units

Yanks and over, Orioles, Brewers winners and Angels, White Sox and loss on Indians under (2.2 units )

**bking79** · 05-04-15, 08:13 AM

alex i was looking up the numbers and detwiler has good numbers vs astros i think that price on astros is to much

**bking79** · 05-04-15, 09:06 AM

toronto runline is value today

**bking79** · 05-04-15, 09:32 AM

:runs <= 1 and pp:runs <= 1 and ppp:runs <= 1 and season >= 2012 nationals today

**escism** · 05-04-15, 09:55 AM

I started implementing a new system for checking my situations. It's somewhat primitive, basically it's a tally mark system.

// Legend //
I = 1 situation pointing to this side in the game
* = Very high ROI & WP of this trend
^ = Wagered on this trend
# = Parlay

I have 130+ trends saved as bookmarks and I don't really want to post each trend w/ the picks.

So instead each time I see a situation hit a game I denote it on a text file and run through every situation that I have stored. At the end I have the text down below. I'm liking my tally system thus far. I'd love to hear any improvements from you all on how you count your trends and ultimately make your picks.

// 5-4-15 //

ML
Rangers I / Astros
Blue Jays I / Yankees
Cubs I / Cardinals I
Nationals I / Marlins
Dodgers I / Brewers
Rockies I / Dbacks

RL

Rangers I / Astros
Blue Jays I / Yankees IIII ^
Cubs IIII / Cardinals ^
Phillies II / Braves
Padres IIII / Giants I ^
Angels I*II ^
Nationals I / Marlins IIII ^
Rays I / Red Sox
DBacks I / Rockies
Dodgers I* / Brewers

O/U
Braves - Under I #
Cubs - Over I #
Brewers - Under I #
Marlins - Under II #
Pirates - Under I #

**buddha** · 05-04-15, 11:37 AM

Is anyone gonna try and get posey unbanned?

All he did was a thing that many do, inadvertently and without malice anyone of a number of posters could have been banned for the same thing.

Guy is a solid contributor, he didn't do anything intentionally wrong and all his banishment does is hurt everyone. Us, SBR, everyone loses in this deal. There must be something someone or we as a group can do to get him back. Who "knows" Shari here? Anyone?

**escism** · 05-04-15, 11:55 AM

Originally posted by buddha

Is anyone gonna try and get posey unbanned?

All he did was a thing that many do, inadvertently and without malice anyone of a number of posters could have been banned for the same thing.

Guy is a solid contributor, he didn't do anything intentionally wrong and all his banishment does is hurt everyone. Us, SBR, everyone loses in this deal. There must be something someone or we as a group can do to get him back. Who "knows" Shari here? Anyone?

I agree, we need to get him back but not sure if he'd want to come back after being banned... So who knows what we can do.

**buddha** · 05-04-15, 12:00 PM

Originally posted by escism

I agree, we need to get him back but not sure if he'd want to come back after being banned... So who knows what we can do.

Oh he'd come back. He's a very level-headed guy. I can't believe he's not back already, total misunderstanding this whole deal. I think getting him back'd be as simple as getting Shari, who also seems very level-headed, to understand that he did nothing with bad intent and that people want him back, feel strongly that he deserves to be let back and it'd be beneficial even to SBR to allow him back.

**Alex Vaile** · 05-04-15, 12:04 PM

Today's plays :

Play Red Sox - 134

HF and p:FL and p:SG = 3 and SG = 1 and p:line > -190 and streak > -6 and o:streak < 4 and p:runs < 8 and op:hits < 12 and op:runs < 9 (Bases )

I have 2 conflicting queries on Yankees Jays game. So I'm gonna lay off that game. I'll post more as I get them.

**Alex Vaile** · 05-04-15, 12:05 PM

Originally posted by escism

I started implementing a new system for checking my situations. It's somewhat primitive, basically it's a tally mark system.

// Legend //
I = 1 situation pointing to this side in the game
* = Very high ROI & WP of this trend
^ = Wagered on this trend
# = Parlay

I have 130+ trends saved as bookmarks and I don't really want to post each trend w/ the picks.

So instead each time I see a situation hit a game I denote it on a text file and run through every situation that I have stored. At the end I have the text down below. I'm liking my tally system thus far. I'd love to hear any improvements from you all on how you count your trends and ultimately make your picks.

// 5-4-15 //

ML
Rangers I / Astros
Blue Jays I / Yankees
Cubs I / Cardinals I
Nationals I / Marlins
Dodgers I / Brewers
Rockies I / Dbacks

RL

Rangers I / Astros
Blue Jays I / Yankees IIII ^
Cubs IIII / Cardinals ^
Phillies II / Braves
Padres IIII / Giants I ^
Angels I*II ^
Nationals I / Marlins IIII ^
Rays I / Red Sox
DBacks I / Rockies
Dodgers I* / Brewers

O/U
Braves - Under I #
Cubs - Over I #
Brewers - Under I #
Marlins - Under II #
Pirates - Under I #

It's an interesting idea. Your method seems to be well thought out. Just some like to have the info when making bets ie: the queries. Good luck and thanks for the input!

**escism** · 05-04-15, 12:23 PM

"Just some like to have the info when making bets ie: "

Yeah I get ya. I'm just trying not to overwhelm w/ decisions I guess. I'd like to have a list of all of them and label them like we had in the spreadsheet that can be referenced. I'm still tweaking all my systems thanks for the good feedback!

**escism** · 05-04-15, 03:43 PM

Has anyone bought any of the trends on the trends mart on KS? I know Jmon sells his on there, but I was looking today and there is this one:

MLB 22 55%+ systems active 36 times Mon. for $39

I'm just curious if anyone has done that yet. I was also looking at the $199 for access to all their active systems. Just wondering if those are the same ones as the Newsletter they send out daily or ones that have been stored for a long time.

I'm thinking of pulling the trigger on the $39 one and just going to see if anyone else had done it already.

**Alex Vaile** · 05-04-15, 04:52 PM

Play Giants - 140
Play Giants -1.5 RL + 157

s:SIP = 8 and 0 < s:SRA < 3 and s:SSO > 3 and 0 < s:SWA < 5 and s:SHF < 34 and starter rest < 7 and 3 < s:SHA < 6 and (A or day != Saturday) and (A or SG < 4) and line < 147 and 2 < p:hits < 16 and op:margin > -9 and game number < 154 (Bases)

ROI% 27 Over 300 games.

**Alex Vaile** · 05-04-15, 04:54 PM

Originally posted by escism

Has anyone bought any of the trends on the trends mart on KS? I know Jmon sells his on there, but I was looking today and there is this one:

MLB 22 55%+ systems active 36 times Mon. for $39

I'm just curious if anyone has done that yet. I was also looking at the $199 for access to all their active systems. Just wondering if those are the same ones as the Newsletter they send out daily or ones that have been stored for a long time.

I'm thinking of pulling the trigger on the $39 one and just going to see if anyone else had done it already.

I just save 2 for free and use bookmarking for the rest.

**Alex Vaile** · 05-04-15, 08:19 PM

Originally posted by bking79

alex i was looking up the numbers and detwiler has good numbers vs astros i think that price on astros is to much

I think so as it came down 40 cents. Lets see how it finishes.

**Alex Vaile** · 05-05-15, 07:22 AM

Season to date : 40-28 + 14.75 units
Yesterday's results: 2-1 +1.23 units

Giants ML and Giants RL winners, Red Sox losers.

**Alex Vaile** · 05-05-15, 10:32 AM

Today's plays :

Play Orioles + 109

AD and tS(o:hits-starter hits + o:walks - starter walks) / tS(9-starter innings pitched) <= 1.15 and line <= 150 and month < 9 and rest < 2 ( bking )

**Alex Vaile** · 05-05-15, 10:32 AM

Originally posted by bking79

toronto runline is value today

You called that one. Nice!!!

**Alex Vaile** · 05-05-15, 11:41 AM

Play Over 8.5 -110 Athletics vs Twins

p:HR = 2 and op:HR < 3 and SG < 5 and SG != 3 and 1 < SGS < 5 and s:SRA < 6 and os:SRA < 6 and (s:SHA + ss:SHA) < 17 and (os:SHA + oss:SHA) < 17 and 2.6 < tA(runs, N=10) < 6.8 and oA(runs, N=10) < 6.6 and total < 10.5 and 84 < os:SPT < 119 and starter rest < 20 and o:starter rest < 25 and (rest = 1 or rest = 0) and p:hits < 17 and 3 < op:hits < 18 and .8 < tA(doubles, N=10) < 2.5 and .8 < oA(doubles, N=10) < 3.1 and day != Wednesday and -2 < ou streak < 5 and -2 < ou streak < 3 and month < 10 and (game number < 107 or game number > 116) and tA(walks, N=10) > 1.9 and 1.9 < oA(walks, N=10) < 4.7 and tA(BPRA, N=10) > .4 and p:hits > 5 and (start time - p:start time < -306 or start time - p:start time > -102) and (p:SO + op:SO) > 7 ( Bases)

**escism** · 05-05-15, 12:25 PM

Originally posted by Alex Vaile

Play Over 8.5 -110 Athletics vs Twins

p:HR = 2 and op:HR < 3 and SG < 5 and SG != 3 and 1 < SGS < 5 and s:SRA < 6 and os:SRA < 6 and (s:SHA + ss:SHA) < 17 and (os:SHA + oss:SHA) < 17 and 2.6 < tA(runs, N=10) < 6.8 and oA(runs, N=10) < 6.6 and total < 10.5 and 84 < os:SPT < 119 and starter rest < 20 and o:starter rest < 25 and (rest = 1 or rest = 0) and p:hits < 17 and 3 < op:hits < 18 and .8 < tA(doubles, N=10) < 2.5 and .8 < oA(doubles, N=10) < 3.1 and day != Wednesday and -2 < ou streak < 5 and -2 < ou streak < 3 and month < 10 and (game number < 107 or game number > 116) and tA(walks, N=10) > 1.9 and 1.9 < oA(walks, N=10) < 4.7 and tA(BPRA, N=10) > .4 and p:hits > 5 and (start time - p:start time < -306 or start time - p:start time > -102) and (p:SO + op:SO) > 7 ( Bases)

I'm on this one too!

**Cordoba25** · 05-05-15, 02:13 PM

Originally posted by buddha

Is anyone gonna try and get posey unbanned?

All he did was a thing that many do, inadvertently and without malice anyone of a number of posters could have been banned for the same thing.

Guy is a solid contributor, he didn't do anything intentionally wrong and all his banishment does is hurt everyone. Us, SBR, everyone loses in this deal. There must be something someone or we as a group can do to get him back. Who "knows" Shari here? Anyone?

If they're not going to let him back in then hopefully he'll show up in one of the other popular message boards under the same handle. Or he'll start a blog. Or something! SBR's loss.

Dude's write ups and level of knowledge were GOLD!

**Alex Vaile** · 05-05-15, 04:32 PM

Play Astros -154
Play Astros RL -1.5 +120
Play Nationals -173 (Juicy)

tA(BPRA) < oA(BPRA) and SG = 2 and s:SRA < 5 and 8 > ss:SRA > 0 and (s:SHA + s:SWA) < 12 and os:SHRA > 0 and oss:SHRA < 2 and (game number < 41 or 87 > game number > 61 or 103 > game number > 90 or game number > 130) and op:HR < 4 and op:hits < 14 and p:margin > -7 and -10 < pp:margin < 9 and -10 < opp:margin < 9 and streak > -4 and tA(hits, N=10) > 8.1 and oA(runs, N=10) < 5.3 and -243 < line < 165 and s:SPT > 76 and os:SPT > 66 and SGS < 5 and oA(doubles, N=10) < 2.6 and tA(errors, N=10) < 1.2 (Bases)

**birdsfan** · 05-05-15, 04:45 PM

starter = Michael Pineda and SG > 1 and p

L

**Alex Vaile** · 05-05-15, 06:10 PM

Originally posted by birdsfan

starter = Michael Pineda and SG > 1 and p

L

Nice find. Good luck birds!!