2015 SDQL Baseball Thread

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  • Alex Vaile
    SBR MVP
    • 04-19-14
    • 3724

    #106
    Originally posted by posey
    game number > 10 and month < 6 and conference != o:conference and AD and WP > 50 and o:WP > 50 and SG = 1
    Padres -110

    Enough for today. Sh..load of queries lol.
    Wow u got the whole board covered. Nice job Posey. Keep it going buddy
    Comment
    • Alex Vaile
      SBR MVP
      • 04-19-14
      • 3724

      #107
      Originally posted by JMon


      Good to see some of my situations hitting for you! Cheers bud!
      Thanks JMon you set the bar for us. I simply mine out the data and look what's active. I have been experimenting with my own and throw in from time to time.
      Comment
      • posey
        SBR MVP
        • 05-23-14
        • 1112

        #108
        Originally posted by Alex Vaile
        Wow u got the whole board covered. Nice job Posey. Keep it going buddy
        Yeah thank you!
        Didn't even take too much time. I only looked at the most recent streaks for every game and that's what I came up with. It worked quite good so far, I hope it continues. Start of the season is by far the time of the season I like the most. It seems that it's quite 'easy' to make profit with.
        I am currently 38-34-5 (5 pushes) overall. 53% win rate, average odds of +107 and up over 7 units for a 10% yield. Made some dumb plays few weeks ago (mainly F5 plays which I never had success with, but tried them nonetheless), if I hadn't done them I would be up over 10 easily.
        Tons of plays, yeah, but betting mainly on plus odds it's way enough to win at least 50% of the picks.
        Comment
        • Alex Vaile
          SBR MVP
          • 04-19-14
          • 3724

          #109
          Today's plays: ( Basesloaded)

          Play Rockies + 121
          Play Mets + 110
          Play Blue Jays + 125
          Play Twins + 145

          line >= -102 and p:margin < 3 and o:WP >= 39 and p:runs > 0 and p:runs < 9 and month = 4 and p:runs != 5 and p:margin > -11 and day != Saturday and line < 179 and p:SO>1 and start time<2240 and 18 > p:fly balls >1 and 32>p:LOB>3 and p:walks<10 and WP<79 and p:BPRA != 1
          Comment
          • Alex Vaile
            SBR MVP
            • 04-19-14
            • 3724

            #110
            Originally posted by posey
            Yeah thank you!
            Didn't even take too much time. I only looked at the most recent streaks for every game and that's what I came up with. It worked quite good so far, I hope it continues. Start of the season is by far the time of the season I like the most. It seems that it's quite 'easy' to make profit with.
            I am currently 38-34-5 (5 pushes) overall. 53% win rate, average odds of +107 and up over 7 units for a 10% yield. Made some dumb plays few weeks ago (mainly F5 plays which I never had success with, but tried them nonetheless), if I hadn't done them I would be up over 10 easily.
            Tons of plays, yeah, but betting mainly on plus odds it's way enough to win at least 50% of the picks.
            You obviously have a mind for this SDQL. I am still a beginner just running through queries but I enjoy winning. Good luck to us all!
            Comment
            • Alex Vaile
              SBR MVP
              • 04-19-14
              • 3724

              #111
              Originally posted by bking79
              good calls alex yu the man ya of course brewers win Lol them bums
              Thanks Bking. Of course. Keep it going!
              Comment
              • 2buckluck
                SBR Wise Guy
                • 04-10-15
                • 608

                #112
                Hey, Great posts throughout the MLB threads forum Posey, good insights that help a relative newbie like myself! I'm not in SDQL at all but wondering if the coding above was for Rox / Giants with no rest? They had the rain postponement yesterday afternoon so just asking , I'm sure you accounted for that...
                Comment
                • bking79
                  SBR Sharp
                  • 04-17-15
                  • 341

                  #113
                  Twinkies!!!! Ya hope they win twins are heating up
                  Comment
                  • bking79
                    SBR Sharp
                    • 04-17-15
                    • 341

                    #114
                    Did yu run the one that had marlins the past 2 days ?
                    Comment
                    • posey
                      SBR MVP
                      • 05-23-14
                      • 1112

                      #115
                      Originally posted by 2buckluck
                      Hey, Great posts throughout the MLB threads forum Posey, good insights that help a relative newbie like myself! I'm not in SDQL at all but wondering if the coding above was for Rox / Giants with no rest? They had the rain postponement yesterday afternoon so just asking , I'm sure you accounted for that...
                      It was FOR a day rest (or more). That's why BOTH Giants and Rockies are a play because their game yesterday was ppd. It's in the query (it's the term 'rest > 0', meaning 'more than 0 days rest' or 'at least one day rest').

                      I thought of 'does a day of rest or more have an impact in early months although guys shouldn't be fatigued' or 'are guys with one day rest or more motivated since they had an off day'.
                      And of course we have no guarantee, but it 'seems' so.
                      You have to understand all queries as 'hints' and not as 'guarantees'. It's still possible that 'trends' or queries which made tons of profit in the past fall off out of nowhere. And you have to make queries which make some sense at least a little bit. There are queries out there which are simply coincidence and need further investigation or fine tuning.
                      Most times I back the queries up with standard handicapping (looking at pitchers, other stats, sabermetrics, batter versus pitcher stats...).
                      You have to find the fine line of looking into games enough but not too much.
                      Also I like to pick plus odds or at least make a cut off at -125. It's very rare that I play bets like the one with King Felix few days ago where he was a huge favorite. As I said my average odds are about +107. I also rarely bet over/under compared to ML. And I mostly avoid picking RL. Most teams don't care if the score is 8-7 or 3-0 as long as they win.

                      Originally posted by Alex Vaile
                      You obviously have a mind for this SDQL. I am still a beginner just running through queries but I enjoy winning. Good luck to us all!
                      Thanks! Yes well you can call it 'having a mind' but the thing is that I have always been interested in stats, streaks and so on. I love playing around with the database, I think I would even do it if I didn't make profit with it.
                      Last edited by posey; 04-27-15, 02:21 PM.
                      Comment
                      • bking79
                        SBR Sharp
                        • 04-17-15
                        • 341

                        #116
                        posey what do yu think about orioles bats fallin flat after all them runs past 2 days from them
                        Comment
                        • posey
                          SBR MVP
                          • 05-23-14
                          • 1112

                          #117
                          Tough to say.

                          Noesi more or less is a 'gas can' kinda pitcher. Adam Jones has owned him the past while Chris Davis sucked against him. But don't take it too seriously since the sample size is small. Noesi has been pitching like a fart this season in his two starts, he has an ERA of 5.23 but his BABIP is at .231, which suggests he was even lucky. He has a very high HR/FB% over his career and can't keep the ball on the ground. Over his career he allows over 60% of line drives and fly balls (combined), only a little more than 30% are ground balls. This smells like a ton of trouble at Camden Yards.
                          Of course it could be that the Os bats fall off after their rampage last time out, but if I should take something in this game it probably would be the under, since Jimenez has done quite well thusfar and, surprisingly, Noesi was slightly better on the road than at home last year.
                          But to me it really doesn't look attractive.
                          Comment
                          • bking79
                            SBR Sharp
                            • 04-17-15
                            • 341

                            #118
                            ok cool thanks for the imput im gonna stay away from that one
                            Comment
                            • inZane
                              SBR MVP
                              • 11-13-13
                              • 1206

                              #119
                              Posey, you're a man among men, I appreciate your work and look forward to a profitable year.

                              Comment
                              • 2buckluck
                                SBR Wise Guy
                                • 04-10-15
                                • 608

                                #120
                                Originally posted by posey
                                It was FOR a day rest (or more). That's why BOTH Giants and Rockies are a play because their game yesterday was ppd. It's in the query (it's the term 'rest > 0', meaning 'more than 0 days rest' or 'at least one day rest').

                                I thought of 'does a day of rest or more have an impact in early months although guys shouldn't be fatigued' or 'are guys with one day rest or more motivated since they had an off day'.
                                And of course we have no guarantee, but it 'seems' so.
                                You have to understand all queries as 'hints' and not as 'guarantees'. It's still possible that 'trends' or queries which made tons of profit in the past fall off out of nowhere. And you have to make queries which make some sense at least a little bit. There are queries out there which are simply coincidence and need further investigation or fine tuning.
                                Most times I back the queries up with standard handicapping (looking at pitchers, other stats, sabermetrics, batter versus pitcher stats...).
                                You have to find the fine line of looking into games enough but not too much.
                                Also I like to pick plus odds or at least make a cut off at -125. It's very rare that I play bets like the one with King Felix few days ago where he was a huge favorite. As I said my average odds are about +107. I also rarely bet over/under compared to ML. And I mostly avoid picking RL. Most teams don't care if the score is 8-7 or 3-0 as long as they win.


                                Thanks! Yes well you can call it 'having a mind' but the thing is that I have always been interested in stats, streaks and so on. I love playing around with the database, I think I would even do it if I didn't make profit with it.
                                All of that is awesome and helpful, thanks and BOL!
                                Comment
                                • Alex Vaile
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 04-19-14
                                  • 3724

                                  #121
                                  Originally posted by bking79
                                  Did yu run the one that had marlins the past 2 days ?
                                  Yes I did but Marlins weren't active today.
                                  Last edited by Alex Vaile; 04-27-15, 08:13 PM.
                                  Comment
                                  • Alex Vaile
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 04-19-14
                                    • 3724

                                    #122
                                    Last play for Monday:

                                    Play Houston + 110

                                    179 > line >= -102 and -11 < p:margin < 3 and o:WP >= 39 and 9 > p:runs > 0 and month = 4 and p:runs != 5 and day != Saturday and WP<79 (Bases )
                                    Comment
                                    • Alex Vaile
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 04-19-14
                                      • 3724

                                      #123
                                      Jays pen just awful!
                                      Comment
                                      • posey
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 05-23-14
                                        • 1112

                                        #124
                                        4/27:
                                        Mets +106 W +1.06 u
                                        Braves +117 W +1.17 u
                                        Brewers +106 L -1.00 u
                                        Rockies +120 W +1.20 u
                                        Giants +128 L -1.00 u
                                        Royals +140 W +1.40 u
                                        Red Sox -135 W +0.74 u
                                        Rangers -104 L -1.00 u
                                        Padres -110 L -1.00 u

                                        Record for the day:
                                        5-4, +1.58 u.

                                        Overall SQDL-Thread:
                                        14-7, +7.67 u.
                                        Comment
                                        • terrortwylight
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 11-04-09
                                          • 3032

                                          #125
                                          Nice work man!
                                          Comment
                                          • bking79
                                            SBR Sharp
                                            • 04-17-15
                                            • 341

                                            #126
                                            D and p:margin = -1 and month = 4 and season >= 2006 twins bluejays angels posey yu said the home dogs are hitting better under this one ?? twins are a home dog
                                            Comment
                                            • bking79
                                              SBR Sharp
                                              • 04-17-15
                                              • 341

                                              #127
                                              AD and tS(o:hits-starter hits + o:walks - starter walks) / tS(9-starter innings pitched) <= 1.15 and line <= 150 and month < 9 and rest < 2 ANGELS ROYALS METS ASTROS
                                              Comment
                                              • Alex Vaile
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 04-19-14
                                                • 3724

                                                #128
                                                Season to date : 18-10 + 9.41 units
                                                Yesterday's results : 3-2 + 1.31 units
                                                Mets, Rockies and Astros winners, Jays and Twins losers
                                                Comment
                                                • bking79
                                                  SBR Sharp
                                                  • 04-17-15
                                                  • 341

                                                  #129
                                                  We almost came back in that twins game im taking them today twins have the better pitcher
                                                  Comment
                                                  • JMon
                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                    • 12-11-09
                                                    • 9800

                                                    #130
                                                    Originally posted by bking79
                                                    AD and tS(o:hits-starter hits + o:walks - starter walks) / tS(9-starter innings pitched) <= 1.15 and line <= 150 and month < 9 and rest < 2 ANGELS ROYALS METS ASTROS

                                                    Did you come up with this beauty yourself? I don't recall seeing this query.. Nice one.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • bking79
                                                      SBR Sharp
                                                      • 04-17-15
                                                      • 341

                                                      #131
                                                      Thanx jmon ya i got this from the query system manual
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Alex Vaile
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 04-19-14
                                                        • 3724

                                                        #132
                                                        Today's plays:

                                                        Play Mets even

                                                        AD and p:AW and SG=2 and division=o:division and day!=Saturday and day!=Sunday and p:runs<5 and op:runs<3 and NGT ( JMon )

                                                        Play Rangers + 110

                                                        HD and tA(W) < .42 and month < 7 and division = o:division
                                                        ( green7)
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Alex Vaile
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 04-19-14
                                                          • 3724

                                                          #133
                                                          Originally posted by bking79
                                                          Thanx jmon ya i got this from the query system manual
                                                          I saw it too great results and large sample size
                                                          Comment
                                                          • bking79
                                                            SBR Sharp
                                                            • 04-17-15
                                                            • 341

                                                            #134
                                                            Ok cool alex mets and rangers i like it
                                                            Comment
                                                            • bking79
                                                              SBR Sharp
                                                              • 04-17-15
                                                              • 341

                                                              #135
                                                              In may the system does alot better dr ed said
                                                              Comment
                                                              • bking79
                                                                SBR Sharp
                                                                • 04-17-15
                                                                • 341

                                                                #136
                                                                JMON...................SDQL Text: D and p:margin = -1 and month = 4 andseason >= 20062. Leave it to the PenThis is a little more complex but just start by lookingfor road dogs up to +150 on normal rest (0-1 days).SDQL Text: AD and tS(o:hits-starter hits + o:walks -starter walks) / tS(9-starter innings pitched) <= 1.15 andline <= 150 and month < 9 and rest < 2When these teams have a reliable pen with a low WHIP,they’ve produced a profit in 10 of the past 11 seasons foran average profit of more than $1,000 per year. The pastfive years have been ever better (+$1,521 per season)and the average line is +122. Note the ‘month’ parameter.Perhaps it’s a combination of cooling weather and the factteams have been stretched thin, but playing this anglebeyond August is not worth the risk.Co-founder of Pick Sixty Sports, Jarvis
                                                                Comment
                                                                • bking79
                                                                  SBR Sharp
                                                                  • 04-17-15
                                                                  • 341

                                                                  #137
                                                                  D and p:margin = -1 and month = 4 and season >= 2006 RUNLINES ON THIS SYSTEM ARE 26-9 IN 2015 SO FAR RUNLINE SMASHER
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • posey
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 05-23-14
                                                                    • 1112

                                                                    #138
                                                                    Originally posted by bking79
                                                                    D and p:margin = -1 and month = 4 and season >= 2006 twins bluejays angels posey yu said the home dogs are hitting better under this one ?? twins are a home dog
                                                                    Yeah, simply play around with 'AD' and 'HD' and you see the difference.

                                                                    BTW nice queries, you're doing well. Keep it up.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • posey
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 05-23-14
                                                                      • 1112

                                                                      #139
                                                                      HD and DIV and STDSERA > 5 and month < 6 and WP < 50 and o:WP < 50
                                                                      Rangers +108

                                                                      H and DIV and 115 >= line >= -115 and tA(hits) / tA(at bats) > .25 and oA(hits) / oA(at bats) < .25 and game number > 10 and month < 6
                                                                      Mets +104

                                                                      AD and DIV and game number < 40 and STDSERA > 4.7 and o:STDSERA > 4.7 and league = AL
                                                                      Blue Jays +102

                                                                      game number > 10 and month < 6 and conference != o:conference and AD and WP > 50 and o:WP > 50 and p:W
                                                                      Padres -145
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • posey
                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                        • 05-23-14
                                                                        • 1112

                                                                        #140
                                                                        AD and DIV and game number > 10 and month < 6 and STDSERA < 4 and o:STDSERA < 4 and WP > 50 and o:WP > 50
                                                                        Pirates @ Cubs Over 7.5 -101

                                                                        AD and DIV and game number > 10 and month < 6 and SG > 1 and p:W and league = NL and day != Friday and day != Saturday and day != Sunday
                                                                        Mets +104 (also supported by the query above)
                                                                        Rockies +102
                                                                        Comment
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