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Yeah thank you!
Didn't even take too much time. I only looked at the most recent streaks for every game and that's what I came up with. It worked quite good so far, I hope it continues. Start of the season is by far the time of the season I like the most. It seems that it's quite 'easy' to make profit with.
I am currently 38-34-5 (5 pushes) overall. 53% win rate, average odds of +107 and up over 7 units for a 10% yield. Made some dumb plays few weeks ago (mainly F5 plays which I never had success with, but tried them nonetheless), if I hadn't done them I would be up over 10 easily.
Tons of plays, yeah, but betting mainly on plus odds it's way enough to win at least 50% of the picks.Comment -
Today's plays: ( Basesloaded)
Play Rockies + 121
Play Mets + 110
Play Blue Jays + 125
Play Twins + 145
line >= -102 and p:margin < 3 and o:WP >= 39 and p:runs > 0 and p:runs < 9 and month = 4 and p:runs != 5 and p:margin > -11 and day != Saturday and line < 179 and p:SO>1 and start time<2240 and 18 > p:fly balls >1 and 32>p:LOB>3 and p:walks<10 and WP<79 and p:BPRA != 1Comment -
Hey, Great posts throughout the MLB threads forum Posey, good insights that help a relative newbie like myself! I'm not in SDQL at all but wondering if the coding above was for Rox / Giants with no rest? They had the rain postponement yesterday afternoon so just asking , I'm sure you accounted for that...Comment -
Twinkies!!!! Ya hope they win twins are heating upComment -
Did yu run the one that had marlins the past 2 days ?Comment -
It was FOR a day rest (or more). That's why BOTH Giants and Rockies are a play because their game yesterday was ppd. It's in the query (it's the term 'rest > 0', meaning 'more than 0 days rest' or 'at least one day rest').
I thought of 'does a day of rest or more have an impact in early months although guys shouldn't be fatigued' or 'are guys with one day rest or more motivated since they had an off day'.
And of course we have no guarantee, but it 'seems' so.
You have to understand all queries as 'hints' and not as 'guarantees'. It's still possible that 'trends' or queries which made tons of profit in the past fall off out of nowhere. And you have to make queries which make some sense at least a little bit. There are queries out there which are simply coincidence and need further investigation or fine tuning.
Most times I back the queries up with standard handicapping (looking at pitchers, other stats, sabermetrics, batter versus pitcher stats...).
You have to find the fine line of looking into games enough but not too much.
Also I like to pick plus odds or at least make a cut off at -125. It's very rare that I play bets like the one with King Felix few days ago where he was a huge favorite. As I said my average odds are about +107. I also rarely bet over/under compared to ML. And I mostly avoid picking RL. Most teams don't care if the score is 8-7 or 3-0 as long as they win.
Thanks! Yes well you can call it 'having a mind' but the thing is that I have always been interested in stats, streaks and so on. I love playing around with the database, I think I would even do it if I didn't make profit with it.
Last edited by posey; 04-27-15, 02:21 PM.Comment -
posey what do yu think about orioles bats fallin flat after all them runs past 2 days from themComment -
Tough to say.
Noesi more or less is a 'gas can' kinda pitcher. Adam Jones has owned him the past while Chris Davis sucked against him. But don't take it too seriously since the sample size is small. Noesi has been pitching like a fart this season in his two starts, he has an ERA of 5.23 but his BABIP is at .231, which suggests he was even lucky. He has a very high HR/FB% over his career and can't keep the ball on the ground. Over his career he allows over 60% of line drives and fly balls (combined), only a little more than 30% are ground balls. This smells like a ton of trouble at Camden Yards.
Of course it could be that the Os bats fall off after their rampage last time out, but if I should take something in this game it probably would be the under, since Jimenez has done quite well thusfar and, surprisingly, Noesi was slightly better on the road than at home last year.
But to me it really doesn't look attractive.Comment -
ok cool thanks for the imput im gonna stay away from that oneComment -
Posey, you're a man among men, I appreciate your work and look forward to a profitable year.
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All of that is awesome and helpful, thanks and BOL!It was FOR a day rest (or more). That's why BOTH Giants and Rockies are a play because their game yesterday was ppd. It's in the query (it's the term 'rest > 0', meaning 'more than 0 days rest' or 'at least one day rest').
I thought of 'does a day of rest or more have an impact in early months although guys shouldn't be fatigued' or 'are guys with one day rest or more motivated since they had an off day'.
And of course we have no guarantee, but it 'seems' so.
You have to understand all queries as 'hints' and not as 'guarantees'. It's still possible that 'trends' or queries which made tons of profit in the past fall off out of nowhere. And you have to make queries which make some sense at least a little bit. There are queries out there which are simply coincidence and need further investigation or fine tuning.
Most times I back the queries up with standard handicapping (looking at pitchers, other stats, sabermetrics, batter versus pitcher stats...).
You have to find the fine line of looking into games enough but not too much.
Also I like to pick plus odds or at least make a cut off at -125. It's very rare that I play bets like the one with King Felix few days ago where he was a huge favorite. As I said my average odds are about +107. I also rarely bet over/under compared to ML. And I mostly avoid picking RL. Most teams don't care if the score is 8-7 or 3-0 as long as they win.
Thanks! Yes well you can call it 'having a mind' but the thing is that I have always been interested in stats, streaks and so on. I love playing around with the database, I think I would even do it if I didn't make profit with it.
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Last play for Monday:
Play Houston + 110
179 > line >= -102 and -11 < p:margin < 3 and o:WP >= 39 and 9 > p:runs > 0 and month = 4 and p:runs != 5 and day != Saturday and WP<79 (Bases )Comment -
Jays pen just awful!Comment -
4/27:
Mets +106 W +1.06 u
Braves +117 W +1.17 u
Brewers +106 L -1.00 u
Rockies +120 W +1.20 u
Giants +128 L -1.00 u
Royals +140 W +1.40 u
Red Sox -135 W +0.74 u
Rangers -104 L -1.00 u
Padres -110 L -1.00 u
Record for the day:
5-4, +1.58 u.
Overall SQDL-Thread:
14-7, +7.67 u.Comment -
Nice work man!Comment -
D and p:margin = -1 and month = 4 and season >= 2006 twins bluejays angels posey yu said the home dogs are hitting better under this one ?? twins are a home dogComment -
AD and tS(o:hits-starter hits + o:walks - starter walks) / tS(9-starter innings pitched) <= 1.15 and line <= 150 and month < 9 and rest < 2 ANGELS ROYALS METS ASTROSComment -
Season to date : 18-10 + 9.41 units
Yesterday's results : 3-2 + 1.31 units
Mets, Rockies and Astros winners, Jays and Twins losersComment -
We almost came back in that twins game im taking them today twins have the better pitcherComment -
Thanx jmon ya i got this from the query system manualComment -
Today's plays:
Play Mets even
AD and p:AW and SG=2 and division=o:division and day!=Saturday and day!=Sunday and p:runs<5 and op:runs<3 and NGT ( JMon )
Play Rangers + 110
HD and tA(W) < .42 and month < 7 and division = o:division
( green7)Comment -
Ok cool alex mets and rangers i like itComment -
In may the system does alot better dr ed saidComment -
JMON...................SDQL Text: D and p:margin = -1 and month = 4 andseason >= 20062. Leave it to the PenThis is a little more complex but just start by lookingfor road dogs up to +150 on normal rest (0-1 days).SDQL Text: AD and tS(o:hits-starter hits + o:walks -starter walks) / tS(9-starter innings pitched) <= 1.15 andline <= 150 and month < 9 and rest < 2When these teams have a reliable pen with a low WHIP,they’ve produced a profit in 10 of the past 11 seasons foran average profit of more than $1,000 per year. The pastfive years have been ever better (+$1,521 per season)and the average line is +122. Note the ‘month’ parameter.Perhaps it’s a combination of cooling weather and the factteams have been stretched thin, but playing this anglebeyond August is not worth the risk.Co-founder of Pick Sixty Sports, JarvisComment -
D and p:margin = -1 and month = 4 and season >= 2006 RUNLINES ON THIS SYSTEM ARE 26-9 IN 2015 SO FAR RUNLINE SMASHERComment -
HD and DIV and STDSERA > 5 and month < 6 and WP < 50 and o:WP < 50
Rangers +108
H and DIV and 115 >= line >= -115 and tA(hits) / tA(at bats) > .25 and oA(hits) / oA(at bats) < .25 and game number > 10 and month < 6
Mets +104
AD and DIV and game number < 40 and STDSERA > 4.7 and o:STDSERA > 4.7 and league = AL
Blue Jays +102
game number > 10 and month < 6 and conference != o:conference and AD and WP > 50 and o:WP > 50 and p:W
Padres -145Comment -
AD and DIV and game number > 10 and month < 6 and STDSERA < 4 and o:STDSERA < 4 and WP > 50 and o:WP > 50
Pirates @ Cubs Over 7.5 -101
AD and DIV and game number > 10 and month < 6 and SG > 1 and p:W and league = NL and day != Friday and day != Saturday and day != Sunday
Mets +104 (also supported by the query above)
Rockies +102Comment
