on3's MLB 2014 Opening Day System Thread

[Betdevotion]

BOS and COL GJ.

[on3]

UPDATED for 4/7/2014
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 14-1-0; Profit: +3.28 units
Filtered System: 3-0-0; Profit: +3 units
5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 11-4; 2-1
Game 2 (B) win = 0-4; 0-1; 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 3-1; 1-0; 0-0

REGULAR FOR 4/8/2014
(A) SF -148
(A) WAS -173
(A) TOR -175

Filtered
(A) TOR -175

5/2
none

[Betdevotion]

Hmm... on bet365 TOR is 9.0 !

[TenCount]

I get tired of reading through the ?'s myself boys, sorry but I gotta clarify sumthin. I get the betting pattern for filtered plays, yins covered that well. But what is the bets for just regular plays? A loses, so you bet B at what you lost on A + 1 unit? And C is same? B losses + 1 unit?

[Linkan]

As i understood On3's post earlier in the thread (post #15), until April 14th he will bet:
A: 0,5 unit profit
B: 1 unit profit (A losses + 1 unit)
C: 2 units profit (A+B losses +2 units)

Filtered is doubled up. So A 1 unit and so on. Thats my perception..

[on3]

I get tired of reading through the ?'s myself boys, sorry but I gotta clarify sumthin. I get the betting pattern for filtered plays, yins covered that well. But what is the bets for just regular plays? A loses, so you bet B at what you lost on A + 1 unit? And C is same? B losses + 1 unit?

Let's use dollars instead of units in this explanation. Each series is to win a set amount, in this example, $10.

If (A) Team XX -150 (bet 15 to win 10) loses. Then the (B) Team XX -170 bet is (15 loss carryover, so 17 to win 10 essentially becomes 32 to win 10 because you have to recover the carryover). You follow me so far? If (B) loses, then that means (C) Team XX -125 is (15 loss carryover + 32 loss carryover + the current bet (12.50) = 59.50 to win 10).

So if A loses, you bet B + A carryover. If B loses, you bet C + B carryover + A carryover.

[on3]

Once I start running the labby lines, all the amounts will be spelled out.

[on3]

UPDATED for 4/9/2014
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 17-1-0; Profit: +6.28 units
Filtered System: 4-0-0; Profit: +4 units
5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 14-4; 3-1
Game 2 (B) win = 0-4; 0-1; 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 3-1; 1-0; 0-0

Regular
none

Filtered
none

5/2
none

[TenCount]

Let's use dollars instead of units in this explanation. Each series is to win a set amount, in this example, $10.

If (A) Team XX -150 (bet 15 to win 10) loses. Then the (B) Team XX -170 bet is (15 loss carryover, so 17 to win 10 essentially becomes 32 to win 10 because you have to recover the carryover). You follow me so far? If (B) loses, then that means (C) Team XX -125 is (15 loss carryover + 32 loss carryover + the current bet (12.50) = 59.50 to win 10).

So if A loses, you bet B + A carryover. If B loses, you bet C + B carryover + A carryover.

Perfect description my man. Appreciate u taking the time even though I'm sure you have been asked these ?'s way too many times over the last few years. I will be tailing all year good and bad with $50 units. BOL

[Linkan]

Let's use dollars instead of units in this explanation. Each series is to win a set amount, in this example, $10.

If (A) Team XX -150 (bet 15 to win 10) loses. Then the (B) Team XX -170 bet is (15 loss carryover, so 17 to win 10 essentially becomes 32 to win 10 because you have to recover the carryover). You follow me so far? If (B) loses, then that means (C) Team XX -125 is (15 loss carryover + 32 loss carryover + the current bet (12.50) = 59.50 to win 10).

So if A loses, you bet B + A carryover. If B loses, you bet C + B carryover + A carryover.

On3: Not that i dont understand your explanation or question it, im just wondering what you mean with this qoute :

"Until then, I am playing (A) bets as a half unit, (B) bets as one unit, (C) bets as 2 units. Filtered wil be doubled."


I interpreted these amounts as the ones to gain in NET profit from each bet. But your explanation states 1 unit net profit for each bet. Am i missing something?

Only if you feel you have time to answer. I really appreciate this thread and your effort. I will be giving you all the points i can through the season.
Regards.

[TenCount]

On3: Not that i dont understand your explanation or question it, im just wondering what you mean with this qoute :

"Until then, I am playing (A) bets as a half unit, (B) bets as one unit, (C) bets as 2 units. Filtered wil be doubled."


I interpreted these amounts as the ones to gain in NET profit from each bet. But your explanation states 1 unit net profit for each bet. Am i missing something?

Only if you feel you have time to answer. I really appreciate this thread and your effort. I will be giving you all the points i can through the season.
Regards.

He's talking about just the first few weeks of the season. Then it will bump up to that description just given.

[on3]

On3: Not that i dont understand your explanation or question it, im just wondering what you mean with this qoute :

"Until then, I am playing (A) bets as a half unit, (B) bets as one unit, (C) bets as 2 units. Filtered wil be doubled."


I interpreted these amounts as the ones to gain in NET profit from each bet. But your explanation states 1 unit net profit for each bet. Am i missing something?

Only if you feel you have time to answer. I really appreciate this thread and your effort. I will be giving you all the points i can through the season.
Regards.

That's just me limiting my action for the first couple weeks. And it was supposed to be interpreted as "each series is to win a .5 unit" as opposed to winning a full unit. The A, B, C progression were just my ballpark estimates of my bet amounts (my RISK amounts), not amounts to win. Hopefully that makes sense.

It wasnt meant to be an official declaration, I was giving my two cents on how I'm playing the first couple weeks.

[thompson182]

Any plays today?

[on3]

UPDATED for 4/10/2014
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 17-1-0; Profit: +6.28 units
Filtered System: 4-0-0; Profit: +4 units
5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 14-4; 3-1
Game 2 (B) win = 0-4; 0-1; 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 3-1; 1-0; 0-0

Regular
none

Filtered
none

5/2
none

[on3]

UPDATED for 4/11/2014
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 17-1-0; Profit: +6.28 units
Filtered System: 4-0-0; Profit: +4 units
5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 14-4; 3-1
Game 2 (B) win = 0-4; 0-1; 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 3-1; 1-0; 0-0

Regular -- all plays must close at -145 or higher to be an official play
(A) SEA -148
(A) BAL -148
(A) TEX -220/-106 play RL
(A) STL -147
(A) SF -168
(A) LAA -160

Filtered -- all plays must meet 'Regular' requirement and close at an O/U of 9 or higher to be an official play
(A) BAL -148

5/2
none

[knugen]

Nerver mind

[thompson182]

What happens when you take runline and team only wins by one? Chase ends?

[on3]

UPDATED for 4/12/2014
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 20-1-0; Profit: +9.28 units
Filtered System: 4-0-0; Profit: +4 units
5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 17-6; 3-2
Game 2 (B) win = 0-4; 0-1; 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 3-1; 1-0; 0-0

Regular -- all plays must close at -145 or higher to be an official play
(B) BAL -113
(B) TEX -159

Filtered -- all plays must meet 'Regular' requirement and close at an O/U of 9 or higher to be an official play
(B) BAL -113

5/2
none

[thompson182]

Baltimore closed at o/u 8.5.

[imotiv8]

STL?

[thompson182]

Stl closed under - 145

[bbedore]

Stl closed under - 145

Doesn't matter. The chase started yesterday.

Since they lost yesterday, they should have been played again today. My suspicion is the On3 simply missed that one as he put in the plays for today. His record of 20-1 reflects that.

[bbedore]

Baltimore closed at o/u 8.5.

Again, doesn't matter. The chase started as a filtered chase (greater than -145 odds and O/U at 9 or more). It does not lose its status as a filtered chase simply because the B game does not fit the criteria.

Once a chase starts as a filtered chase, it remains filtered for the life of that chase.

[BaseballWireGod]

confusing! haha

[on3]

STL (A) bet closed under -145 so it was a no play. BAL/TOR (A) bet closed under o/u 9 so it wasnt a filtered play. Either way, both games won today, but they wont be reflected in the totals.

[bbedore]

STL (A) bet closed under -145 so it was a no play. BAL/TOR (A) bet closed under o/u 9 so it wasnt a filtered play. Either way, both games won today, but they wont be reflected in the totals.

I get the St. Louis (A) closing under -145, but you have the Baltimore (A) bet listed as filtered, as well as the (B) bet. Would it be possible to edit the posts to reflect the actual plays?

[on3]

UPDATED for 4/12/2014
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 21-1-0; Profit: +10.28 units
Filtered System: 4-0-0; Profit: +4 units
5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 17-6; 3-1
Game 2 (B) win = 1-5; 0-1; 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 3-1; 1-0; 0-0

Regular -- all plays must close at -145 or higher to be an official play
(C) TEX -155

Filtered -- all plays must meet 'Regular' requirement and close at an O/U of 9 or higher to be an official play
none

5/2
none

[on3]

UPDATED for 4/14/2014
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 22-1-0; Profit: +11.28 units
Filtered System: 4-0-0; Profit: +4 units
5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 17-6; 3-1
Game 2 (B) win = 1-5; 0-1; 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 4-1; 1-0; 0-0

Regular -- all plays must close at -145 or higher to be an official play
none

Filtered -- all plays must meet 'Regular' requirement and close at an O/U of 9 or higher to be an official play
none

5/2
none

[TenCount]

Love the system and the work you do. I'm wondering if anyone has looked at playing this same system on away games for dominent teams. It looks like we are basically betting that the much better team will not get swept at home. I imagine that if a team who vegas lists as a big favorite away is as, or even more telling of who they believe is the better squad. Like say the top 4 teams overall playing away from home at -145 and over against sub par competition. I can't imagine they get completely swept very often even away from home. Especially if they have 1 or 2 dominant pitchers in their rotation. Just a thought. If no one has back tested this I may take a look at it. Obviously the current system described is working just fine and why would you fix something that isn't broke, I'm just curious. Thanx again man...

[on3]

Love the system and the work you do. I'm wondering if anyone has looked at playing this same system on away games for dominent teams. It looks like we are basically betting that the much better team will not get swept at home. I imagine that if a team who vegas lists as a big favorite away is as, or even more telling of who they believe is the better squad. Like say the top 4 teams overall playing away from home at -145 and over against sub par competition. I can't imagine they get completely swept very often even away from home. Especially if they have 1 or 2 dominant pitchers in their rotation. Just a thought. If no one has back tested this I may take a look at it. Obviously the current system described is working just fine and why would you fix something that isn't broke, I'm just curious. Thanx again man...

The away faves was done previously by TheRizz and it was too volatile. Some seasons up big, other seasons down big. The home favorites remained consistent.

[on3]

looks like our 1 game for today has been PPD


UPDATED for 4/15/2014
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 22-1-0; Profit: +11.28 units
Filtered System: 4-0-0; Profit: +4 units
5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 17-6; 3-1
Game 2 (B) win = 1-5; 0-1; 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 4-1; 1-0; 0-0

Regular -- all plays must close at -145 or higher to be an official play
none

Filtered -- all plays must meet 'Regular' requirement and close at an O/U of 9 or higher to be an official play
none

5/2
none

[knugen]

Will we start the yankees serie tomorrow with game 1?

[on3]

Will we start the yankees serie tomorrow with game 1?

They start a 4 game series against Tampa bay, that will be a play depending on the line.

[hagball52]

Will we start the yankees serie tomorrow with game 1?

They are only playing a 2 game series with the Cubs. It's not a play.

[on3]

No play on Yankees this morning. It's only a 2 game series.