MLB - Situation Plays - SDQL

[Alex Vaile]

Blue Jay blowout!!!

[JMon]

H and STDSERA >= 6.7 and conference = AL and A(o:SSO@o:starter and o:season) >= 5 and conference = o:conference and rest = 0 and SG = 1

Here we want to fade a AL home team with a starting pitcher of >=6.70 ERA against an opposing pitcher who ave. 5+ SO a game. Zero rest and first game of series

[emceeaye]

same query that yesterday went 2-1

Here is Jmon's query that applies to today's Nationals/Athletics game that yesterday went 2-1. What do you think of it today and why or why not follow?

conference=NL and o:conference=AL and A and 230>=line>-105 and month<8 and 9.5>=total>=7

Thanks in advance.

[Mako-SBR]

H and STDSERA >= 6.7 and conference = AL and A(o:SSO@o:starter and o:season) >= 5 and conference = o:conference and rest = 0 and SG = 1

Here we want to fade a AL home team with a starting pitcher of >=6.70 ERA against an opposing pitcher who ave. 5+ SO a game. Zero rest and first game of series

Look at that tasty morsel, even the under is a play. Very nice J.

Update:

I took JMon's query and tweaked it a touch just to see if I could get more under only plays out of it and got:

H and STDSERA>=6.6 and conference=AL and A(o:SSO@o:starter and o:season)>=5.1 and conference=o:conference and SG=1

11-40-4 (-1.91, 21.6%) avg total: 8.8 over / under: -$3,275 / +$2,785 ROI: -54.2% / +46.0%

So you'd play the original query for the ML play and the second query for the unders, both in other words.

[JMon]

Wtg mako

[emceeaye]

I'm trying to query games in which:
1. on-base percentage is higher than opponent's
2. On base percentage greater than .250 with opponent's on-base % less than or =.220
3. Starting pitcher ERA at or below 2.50 with opponent's starting pitcher ERA at or greater than 4.
4. Average runs scored by team is 4 or more while opponent's average runs less than 4.

I'd also like to add average batting average of opponent's hitters against starting pitcher.

This might become over-fitted and therefore yield no results, but at least can play with it more once I get the right terms.

Any help would be appreciated.

Sum(hits@team and season)+(walks@team and season)/Sum(at bats@team and season)>Sum(o:hits@team and season)+(o:walks@team and season)/Sum(o:at bats@team and season) and SERA<=2.5 and o:SERA>=4 and Sum(o:hits@team and season)+(walks@team and season)/Sum(at bats@team and season)<=220 and Sum(hits@team and season)+(walks@team and season)/Sum(at bats@team and season)>=250 and tA(runs)>=4 and o:tA(runs)<4 and 2011<=season

[tarosill]

Look at that tasty morsel, even the under is a play. Very nice J.

Update:

I took JMon's query and tweaked it a touch just to see if I could get more under only plays out of it and got:

H and STDSERA>=6.6 and conference=AL and A(o:SSO@o:starter and o:season)>=5.1 and conference=o:conference and SG=1

11-40-4 (-1.91, 21.6%) avg total: 8.8 over / under: -$3,275 / +$2,785 ROI: -54.2% / +46.0%

So you'd play the original query for the ML play and the second query for the unders, both in other words.

And If I want to exclude starter's first game, then I would probably change it in this way:

H and S(SIP@starter and season) >= 6 and S(o:SIP@o:starter and o:season) >= 6 and STDSERA >= 6.6 and conference = AL and A(o:SSO@o:starter and o:season) >= 5.1 and C and SG = 1

8-38-3 (-2.18, 17.4%)

avg total: 8.8

over / under: -$3,355 / +$2,920

ROI: -62.2% / +54.1%

[JMon]

I'm unsure how to do on base percentage. Perhaps, mako, green or someone else knows

[Alex Vaile]

I went with it and took the As

[JMon]

Here is Jmon's query that applies to today's Nationals/Athletics game that yesterday went 2-1. What do you think of it today and why or why not follow?

conference=NL and o:conference=AL and A and 230>=line>-105 and month<8 and 9.5>=total>=7

Thanks in advance.

This is an auto play for me...only bad year of '11 and '12

[TCU]

Got an interesting one I've been playing so far this month, teams coming off a win in May with a winning percentage less than 40%. Interesting to note how strong this is a run line play when at home;

WP <= 40 and p:W and month = 5 and season > 2011 and site = home

35-24 (0.68, 59.3%)	avg line: -103.7 / -106.8	on / against: +$1,297 / -$1,527	ROI: +18.8% / -21.8%
41-18 (0.86, 69.5%)	avg line: 104.7 / -116.6	on / against: +$2,786 / -$3,067	ROI: +39.1% / -39.4%
29-27-3 (0.58, 51.8%)	avg total: 8.1	over / under: -$40 / -$460	ROI: -0.6% / -7.1%

Has a strong ROI on the ML on the road though;

WP <= 40 and p:W and month = 5 and season > 2011 and site = away

22-17 (-0.05, 56.4%)	avg line: 141.9 / -156.7	on / against: +$1,390 / -$1,705	ROI: +35.0% / -27.6%
26-13 (1.22, 66.7%)	avg line: -143.5 / 131.3	on / against: +$768 / -$917	ROI: +13.2% / -22.5%
17-19-3 (0.23, 47.2%)	avg total: 8.0	over / under: -$365 / +$100	ROI: -8.4% / +2.3%

[JMon]

late night total action

H and 8.5 >= total >= 7 and tA(runs) <= 4.2 and o:STDSERA <= 4.2 and o:conference = AL and po:runs <= 4 and ppo:runs <= 4 and pppo:runs <= 4 and ppppo:runs <= 4 and pppppo:runs <= 4

[JMon]

Got an interesting one I've been playing so far this month, teams coming off a win in May with a winning percentage less than 40%. Interesting to note how strong this is a run line play when at home;

WP <= 40 and p:W and month = 5 and season > 2011 and site = home

35-24 (0.68, 59.3%)	avg line: -103.7 / -106.8	on / against: +$1,297 / -$1,527	ROI: +18.8% / -21.8%
41-18 (0.86, 69.5%)	avg line: 104.7 / -116.6	on / against: +$2,786 / -$3,067	ROI: +39.1% / -39.4%
29-27-3 (0.58, 51.8%)	avg total: 8.1	over / under: -$40 / -$460	ROI: -0.6% / -7.1%

Has a strong ROI on the ML on the road though;

WP <= 40 and p:W and month = 5 and season > 2011 and site = away

22-17 (-0.05, 56.4%)	avg line: 141.9 / -156.7	on / against: +$1,390 / -$1,705	ROI: +35.0% / -27.6%
26-13 (1.22, 66.7%)	avg line: -143.5 / 131.3	on / against: +$768 / -$917	ROI: +13.2% / -22.5%
17-19-3 (0.23, 47.2%)	avg total: 8.0	over / under: -$365 / +$100	ROI: -8.4% / +2.3%

Interesting indeed.

[Roadkill86]

The Red Sox got shut out on one hit tonight... so...

p:hits=1 and p:runs=0 and op:runs>4 and AF

[JMon]

The Red Sox got shut out on one hit tonight... so...

p:hits=1 and p:runs=0 and op:runs>4 and AF

nicely done

[Roadkill86]

team=White Sox and NGT and WP>50 and o:AWP=50 and p:W and SG!=1

[b1slickguy]

H and STDSERA >= 6.7 and conference = AL and A(o:SSO@o:starter and o:season) >= 5 and conference = o:conference and rest = 0 and SG = 1

Here we want to fade a AL home team with a starting pitcher of >=6.70 ERA against an opposing pitcher who ave. 5+ SO a game. Zero rest and first game of series

CLE snaps a 7 game road losing streak.
Good luck.

[JMon]

H and line >100 and tA(HR) <= .9 and 1.4 >= STDSWHIP >= 1.3 and A(o:SHRA@o:starter and o:season) <= .5 and conference = AL and rest = 0 and SG<4

Here we want to fade a home dog of >100 who lacks power in HRs and starting a pitcher of 1.4-1.3 Whip; playing against an opposing pitcher who gives .5 or less HRs a game.

[JMon]

Interleague total

7.5>=total>=7.0 and 4.2>=STDSERA>=3.7 and conference=NL and o:STDSWHIP<=1.3 and o:conference=AL and rest=0

[Roadkill86]

Home Favorite RL plays anyone? Two active in this search...
day=Saturday and o:STDSERA<3 and HF and p:runs>=4 and p:W and HWP>50 and total<9 and p:hits<19 and p:hits!=12

[green7]

o:conference = NL and conference = AL and AD and month < 8 and 9.5 >= total >= 7 and p:W and series game=2

[JMon]

o:conference = NL and conference = AL and AD and month < 8 and 9.5 >= total >= 7 and p:W and series game=2

Nice work green. line parameter fits it nice 160 >= line > 100

btw, do you know how to do on base percentage?

[Roadkill86]

Just for Jmon... Though there doesn't seem to be a way for me to account for hit-by-pitches (count for OBA) nor sacrifice flies (count against OBA, but not batting average). Anyway, hopefully this does the trick for you...

Sum((walks+hits)@team and season) / Sum((walks+at bats)@team and season) >=.320 and day=Sunday and os:L and STDSERA>5 and season>2010 and team!=Red Sox

[green7]

on base percentage

Sorry, never tried to do on base percentage calculation using SDQL.

I'm having success with playing the top ten road OPS teams(from espn stats) in a two game mini road chase and omitting the non-conference games (for example the Nats/Athletics game today).

Gonna stick with it, as I feel in every sport that defense wins at home and offense wins on the road and as an example of that, the best modern day quarterbacks (Manning, Brady, Brees) have very good road records.

In baseball the home park can skew the real measure of how well a team performs, both from a pitching standpoint and from a hitting standpoint.....using road stats is a better way of getting a true picture of performance.

[Roadkill86]

season>2011 and SG=3 and playoffs=0 and p:X and o:conference=NL and H and (streak<=-2 or streak>=2) and team!=Rockies and team!=Brewers and o:team!=Brewers and o:team!=Rockies and o:team!=Phillies

[Alex Vaile]

Wow what a query Roadkill. Nice job!

[Roadkill86]

Wow what a query Roadkill. Nice job!

Thanks! In before 14-10 final score....

[Alex Vaile]

Shoot I hope not. I was thinking more like 3 to 2. Best of luck.

[emceeaye]

another shut-out scenario that pointed to As today

Here's one that supported As today.


H and Sum((hits+walks)@team and season)/Sum(at bats@team and season)>Sum((o:hits+walks)@team and season)/Sum(o:at bats@team and season) and Sum((hits+walks)@team and season)/Sum(at bats@team and season)>=.300 and STDSERA<2.00 and op:runs=0 and 2011<=season

[tarosill]

Here's one that supported As today.


H and Sum((hits+walks)@team and season)/Sum(at bats@team and season)>Sum((o:hits+walks)@team and season)/Sum(o:at bats@team and season) and Sum((hits+walks)@team and season)/Sum(at bats@team and season)>=.300 and STDSERA<2.00 and op:runs=0 and 2011<=season

Good find emceeaye! I tweaked it a little bit and here is the result.

HF and Sum((hits+walks)@team and season)/Sum(at bats@team and season)>Sum((o:hits+o:walks)@team and season)/Sum(o:at bats@team and season) and Sum((hits+walks)@team and season)/Sum(at bats@team and season)>=.300 and STDSERA<2.00 and op:runs=0 and op:hits>1 and season>=2009

[emceeaye]

Good find emceeaye! I tweaked it a little bit and here is the result.

HF and Sum((hits+walks)@team and season)/Sum(at bats@team and season)>Sum((o:hits+o:walks)@team and season)/Sum(o:at bats@team and season) and Sum((hits+walks)@team and season)/Sum(at bats@team and season)>=.300 and STDSERA<2.00 and op:runs=0 and op:hits>1 and season>=2009

Nice tweak tarosill. I put it together with on-base percentage in mind based on intuition and with the hopes of keeping it face valid. One thing that's interesting is how opponent's previous hits being >1 would make the effect even more pronounced--I don't get it.

[tarosill]

Nice tweak tarosill. I put it together with on-base percentage in mind based on intuition and with the hopes of keeping it face valid. One thing that's interesting is how opponent's previous hits being >1 would make the effect even more pronounced--I don't get it.

I thought that you unintentionally missed the game reference "o" in front of walks so I add it too. That's probably the most important change.

[tarosill]

I was wondering can the New York Yankees bounce back after the yesterday's loss?

team = Yankees and starter = Hiroki Kuroda and s:W and p:L and H

Let's see.

[emceeaye]

I thought that you unintentionally missed the game reference "o" in front of walks so I add it too. That's probably the most important change.

Oh yeah, I did unintentionally leave it out--thanks for the addition...Also adding F to H helped too.

[emceeaye]

hope someone saw and took advantage of the one below that someone posted earlier

STR and o:STR and s:margin = -1 and s:streak = 2 and s:biggest lead < 3 and s:errors < 2 and -9 < p:M8 < 3 and p:M8 != -2 and -4 < p:M1 < 3