To beat the sports betting marketplace and come out with profit through a season I’ve often suggested you make a point spread or money line that is closer to reality than market offers, then bet accordingly. Let’s start simple.
Of course, there are many, many different ways to successfully handicap games and when comparing teams, many bettors use some sort of power rating and often incorporate strength of schedule as factor.
Let’s see if we can take the strength of schedule factor one step further with something I’ve posted before:
When determining the strength of the schedule of a team, one should not only be looking at that team’s opponents during a specified time frame, but also incorporate the strength of schedule of the opponents’ opponents of that team during the specified time.
For example, if San Francisco plays Seattle a certain week, one would look at the strength of schedules for each team for a given time period (season to date, last 4 games, etc.) Let’s say, all stats being equal and based on the opponent performance, it is determined that SF had the tougher strength of schedule. But what if, during the specified time frame, SF’s opponents all did well against below average, or weak teams. Then, let’s say Seattle’s opponents during that time frame were forced to play top tier teams and didn’t perform as well.
During the time frame Seattle’s opponents appear to be weaker, giving Seattle the weaker strength of schedule. In actuality, it was the tougher “opponents’ strength of schedule” that caused this result.
If you correctly account for the strength of schedule of the opponents you are using to calculate the strength of schedule of a team you are handicapping your conclusions are not only more precise, they are closer to reality.
The closer your opinion of a game is to reality, the better you are able to stand that opinion up against the market to see if you have a bet.
Now you say, “but in the age of computers, syndicates have all the information and have already processed these numbers and how can I get an edge?”
I’ve said it many times, it’s not the information you have, but how you use it that counts.
If you want to win at sports betting get creative, think out of the box and use available information in unique ways. The nature and use of information is for another thread but I’ve talked about it in other threads.
For this thread, suffice to say there are concepts here that can apply to more than just strength of schedule. They can be used on more predictive statistics to make them, well, hopefully even more predictive.
Like I said, there are many ways to successfully handicap…also another thread.
As always, track your bets and results and look at them, it could be the most important thing you do in an effort to get a few more winners, or at least a few less losers.
For the Forum…have you found a way to make strength of schedule useful? Can you think of any other simple factors that can be improved by taking it “a step further?”
Of course, there are many, many different ways to successfully handicap games and when comparing teams, many bettors use some sort of power rating and often incorporate strength of schedule as factor.
Let’s see if we can take the strength of schedule factor one step further with something I’ve posted before:
When determining the strength of the schedule of a team, one should not only be looking at that team’s opponents during a specified time frame, but also incorporate the strength of schedule of the opponents’ opponents of that team during the specified time.
For example, if San Francisco plays Seattle a certain week, one would look at the strength of schedules for each team for a given time period (season to date, last 4 games, etc.) Let’s say, all stats being equal and based on the opponent performance, it is determined that SF had the tougher strength of schedule. But what if, during the specified time frame, SF’s opponents all did well against below average, or weak teams. Then, let’s say Seattle’s opponents during that time frame were forced to play top tier teams and didn’t perform as well.
During the time frame Seattle’s opponents appear to be weaker, giving Seattle the weaker strength of schedule. In actuality, it was the tougher “opponents’ strength of schedule” that caused this result.
If you correctly account for the strength of schedule of the opponents you are using to calculate the strength of schedule of a team you are handicapping your conclusions are not only more precise, they are closer to reality.
The closer your opinion of a game is to reality, the better you are able to stand that opinion up against the market to see if you have a bet.
Now you say, “but in the age of computers, syndicates have all the information and have already processed these numbers and how can I get an edge?”
I’ve said it many times, it’s not the information you have, but how you use it that counts.
If you want to win at sports betting get creative, think out of the box and use available information in unique ways. The nature and use of information is for another thread but I’ve talked about it in other threads.
For this thread, suffice to say there are concepts here that can apply to more than just strength of schedule. They can be used on more predictive statistics to make them, well, hopefully even more predictive.
Like I said, there are many ways to successfully handicap…also another thread.
As always, track your bets and results and look at them, it could be the most important thing you do in an effort to get a few more winners, or at least a few less losers.
For the Forum…have you found a way to make strength of schedule useful? Can you think of any other simple factors that can be improved by taking it “a step further?”
