UFC Vegas 39: Mackenzie Dern vs. Marina Rodriguez Main Event Picks

The Ultimate Fighting Championship has a jam-packed schedule and this Saturday we are getting what should be a very entertaining strawweight fight between Mackenzie Dern and Marina Rodriguez. Here’s a complete preview, including updated UFC odds and our betting pick.

Mackenzie Dern vs. Marina Rodriguez

Strawweight Main Event Bout

Saturday, October 09, 2021 - 10:05 PM EDT at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas

In the main event of the evening, Mackenzie Dern battles Marina Rodriguez. UFC Vegas 39 takes place at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. With plenty of betting lines and markets currently available, let’s attempt to find some value for our UFC picks on Saturday's main event.

US-Brazilian fighter Mackenzie Dern celebrates her victory against US fighter Amanda Cooper. (Photo by MAURO PIMENTEL / AFP)

Mackenzie Dern

Introduction, Background and UFC Career

Mackenzie Dern was considered hot prospect to watch out for when the UFC signed her and she didn't disappoint. The hype came from her accomplishments in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. Dern is regarded as one of the greatest female grapplers of her generation, she boasts a BJJ black belt and once had the title of World No.1 ranked IBJJF (International Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Federation) competitor, after winning titles like the ADCC and no-gi BJJ World Championship.

Dern began practicing when she was three years old and she competed in the women’s adult division by the age of 14, steadily progressing throughout every belt rank whilst obtaining championships at every belt level. Dern's dominant Jiu-Jitsu tenure deserves respect because everything she accomplished was before she turned 20.

Professional MMA was the next step. Dern debuted for Legacy Fighting Alliance (LFA) in 2016 and she won four straight fights (two via submission), which led her to Invicta FC. A submission finish in her debut gave the UFC no choice but to add her to their roster and she's 6-1 since, with four submission wins, which isn't surprising. Dern has won her last four fights and she's coming off a Round 1 submission victory against Nina Nunes at UFC Vegas 23 on April 10th.

Born:March 24th, 1993Age:28Country:United StatesHeight:5’4?Weight:115 lbsReach:63?Stance:OrthodoxAssociation:Black HouseClass:StrawweightRecord:11-1

Stats

Method of VictorySignificant StrikesTakedowns0 wins by KO/TKO3.64 Landed10% Accuracy7 wins by Submission3.57 Absorbed0% Defended4 wins by Decisionhttps://twitter.com/JonnGrey/status/1391513683675672580

Marina Rodriguez

Introduction, Background and UFC Career

Marina Rodriguez is an anomaly of mixed martial arts and pretty much the opposite of Mackenzie Dern. She doesn't possess a lot of experience, as she's been competing as a professional MMA fighter for five years but her in-cage skillset is second-to-none and once the door closes she unleashes her Muay Thai offense and nobody would guess that she hasn't been doing this all her life.

Rodriguez won nine professional fights within the Brazilian regional MMA scene, which prepared her for the UFC and she made a statement with a Round 1 knockout against Maria de Oliveira Neta on Dana White's Contender Series on August 11th, 2018. The win rolled out the red carpet for her to step into the UFC octagon and she went 4-1-2 since. In her last fight, she won a unanimous decision against Michelle Waterson at UFC Vegas 26 on May 8th.

Born:April 29th, 1987Age:34Country:BrazilHeight:5’7?Weight:115 lbsReach:65?Stance:OrthodoxAssociation:Thai BrazilClass:StrawweightRecord:14-1-2

Stats

Method of VictorySignificant StrikesTakedowns6 wins by KO/TKO4.89 Landed33% Accuracy1 win by Submission3.24 Absorbed62% Defended7 wins by Decisionhttps://youtu.be/ktDsfgOWsZg

Prediction

Rodriguez's path to victory is clear, she has to avoid clinch and grappling exchanges while trying to keep Dern on the end of her strikes. Dern's striking offense isn't elite and Rodriguez can excel in standing positions. Dern obviously has to ground this fight. She can't hang around on the feet with Rodriguez. Dern is a big favorite at the best sportsbooks but the wagers have been coming in on Rodriguez and Dern's line has dropped. It isn't surprising because this is pretty much a coin toss fight with value on Rodriguez. However, the fight will likely hit the ground at least once across the five rounds and once it does, it's Dern's realm and she'll likely end things. I just love the value here.

UFC Pick: (visit our Sportsbook Review)

*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.