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Derrick Lewis enters the octagon for his heavyweight bout against Sergei Pavlovich of Russia during UFC 277.
Derrick Lewis enters the octagon for his heavyweight bout against Sergei Pavlovich of Russia during UFC 277. Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images/AFP.

The UFC returns to Las Vegas on Saturday, with Derrick Lewis aiming to snap his skid against Sergey Spivac in a heavyweight headliner. Check out our Lewis-Spivac UFC picks ahead of the bill’s main event.

The promotion’s all-time knockout leader is coming off consecutive losses to Tai Tuivasa and Sergei Pavlovich, both via strikes. Lewis now heads to the world’s fight capital with a solid 17-8 UFC record and a baker’s dozen KO/TKO wins, including stoppages of promotional fixtures Curtis Blaydes, Alexander Volkov, and Marcin Tybura.

Meanwhile, Spivac has been quietly amassing a 6-3 UFC record and enjoying a fruitful year with two straight TKO wins. The Moldovan product gave Greg Hardy a prompt thrashing in March, and he was last seen stopping Augusto Sakai in under two rounds this past July.

Here are my Lewis-Spivac picks and predictions for Saturday’s marquee matchup (odds via Caesars Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our UFC Fight Night: Lewis-Spivac best bets.

Lewis vs. Spivac Fight Info

Date: Saturday, Nov. 19, 4 p.m. ET (main card)
TV: ESPN+
Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, NV

Lewis vs. Spivac Odds

(via Caesars Sportsbook)

MarketLewisSpivac
Moneyline+170-200
Over/UnderOver 1.5 Rounds (-115)Under 1.5 Rounds (-115)

Lewis vs. Spivac Picks

Who Will Win Lewis vs. Spivac?

Lewis (+170) ★★★

Lewis may be the best bad fighter on the UFC's roster. But to his credit, Lewis has been faring well during most of his style clashes throughout the veteran's promotional stint, scoring victories over solid grapplers in Ilir Latifi, Aleksei Oleinik, Tybura, and Blaydes - although the latter matchup was primarily contested standing up.

Furthermore, Lewis’ hellacious power is a great equalizer in any fight. Spivac’s striking is serviceable, but not enough of a threat to render Lewis gun-shy. I expect Spivac will try to turn this into a grappling match while aiming to neutralize Lewis’ missile of a right hand. But look for the 37-year-old to muscle his way out of some dicey positions and land the bout’s most consequential blows, just as he’s done countless times before.

Lewis vs. Spivac Over/Under

Over 1.5 rounds (-115) ★★★

Lewis has earned eight of his 13 UFC knockouts after the opening stanza, and eight of his promotional defeats have ended in a stoppage. Conversely, Spivac has kept the judges out of it in 13 of 15 pro wins, lost two of three via strikes, and scored three of his four UFC stoppage victories in Round 2.

There’s little to suggest this matchup runs the full five rounds. Lewis has found himself in some precarious spots before smashing his way to victory during nearly every one of his style clashes. Even if Spivac manages to keep him on his back and secure another stoppage on the mat, it’ll take well over a single frame for these two to settle the affair.

Lewis vs. Spivac Winning Method

Lewis by KO/TKO (+230) ★★★

When Lewis wins, he usually sends his opponent to the shadow realm, and I like his chances of repeating the feat against a foe who’s folded to strikes in two of his three UFC losses.

Despite what his knockout-riddled record may imply, Lewis isn’t always a swift starter. But as long as he stays upright, Lewis only needs one clean right hand to the dome to earn a victory. “The Black Beast” will extend his UFC knockout record in violent fashion on Saturday.

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Lewis-Spivac picks made 11/17/2022 at 11:32 a.m. ET.