UFC Best Bets Today: Top Picks, Predictions for Lewis vs. Spivac

Kyle Smith

Last Updated: January 1, 0001 12:00 AM EST • 3 min 8 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

UFC best bets today — Our top UFC picks, predictions, and best bets based on the odds at our top-rated sportsbooks.

A pair of Titanic heavyweights are set to do each other harm on Saturday night when Derrick Lewis meets Serghei Spivac in the main event of UFC Vegas 65. Read on for our UFC Fight Night: Lewis-Spivac best bets.

Lewis is at a crossroads. The 37-year-old heavyweight rode his monstrous power into the upper echelon of the division but was never able to taste gold. Now, facing the possibility of a third loss in a row, “The Black Beast” needs a win if he wants to remain a growing concern amongst the UFC’s giants.

With five wins in his past six bouts, Spivac’s career is on an upswing, and he’ll no doubt burst into the top 10 of the division if he violently disposes of Lewis. A convincing win over the seasoned veteran would thrust “The Polar Bear” into the heavyweight title picture.

Also on the card: A scintillating light heavyweight matchup between knockout artist Kennedy Nzechukwu and Ion Cutelaba, and a potential heavyweight barnburner pitting Chase Sherman against Waldo Cortes-Acosta.

Read on for our UFC Fight Night: Lewis-Spivac best bets (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spivac Card and Odds

(Odds via DraftKings)

Derrick Lewis (+165) vs. Serghei Spivac (-195)
Ion Cutelaba (+145) vs. Kennedy Nzechukwu (-170)
Waldo Cortes-Acosta (-240) vs. Chase Sherman (+200)
Andre Fialho (+100) vs. Muslim Salikhov (-120)
Jack Della Maddalena (-660) vs. Danny Roberts (+490)
Charles Johnson (-165) vs. Zhalgas Zhumagulov (+140)
Jennifer Maia (+155) vs. Maryna Moroz (-180)
Miles Johns (-170) vs. Vince Morales (+145)
Kevin Natividad (+135) vs. Ricky Turcios (-155)
Vanessa Demopoulos (-115) vs. Maria Oliveira (-105)
Fernie Garcia (+150) vs. Brady Hiestand (-175)
Tereza Bleda (+140) vs. Natalia Silva (-165)

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spivac Best Bets

Fight Line: Nzechukwu (-170 via DraftKings)★★★★
Upset: Lewis (+165 via DraftKings)★★★
Winning Method: Nzechukwu via TKO/KO/DQ (+125 via FanDuel) ★★★★
Prop Bet: Lewis vs. Spivac to end via KO/TKO (-230 via FanDuel)★★★★
Parlay: Lewis (+168) + Nzechukwu By KO/TKO (+125) + Maddalena by KO/TKO (-180) = +838 via FanDuel

Top Picks for UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spivac

Fight Line: Nzechukwu (-170) ★★★★

With only one victory in his last six bouts, this might turn into a pink-slip derby for Cutelaba. The long-time UFC veteran has had his hand raised only once since 2019 and is staring down a fighter that can violently end a lesser opponent. Sure, Nzechukwu isn’t exactly a world-beater, but he has more tread left on his tires and has the skill set to starch Cutelaba with something vicious.

As for how I expect the fight to end, more on that in another best bet.

Upset: Lewis (+165) ★★★

Blessed with nuclear warheads for fists, Lewis is always one punch away from banishing his opponent to the shadow realm. Spivac could use his wrestling to avoid being blasted by Lewis’ prodigious power, but we’ve seen “The Black Beast” just ridiculously and suddenly stand up after takedowns. Spivac has also fallen to heavy hitters, suffering TKO losses to Tom Aspinall and Walt Harris.

This is quite possibly Lewis’ last chance to stay relevant amongst the heavyweight title contenders. As such, it’s likely he’ll be throwing absolute bombs. One of those violent swings will end up detonating on Spivac’s chin.

Winning method: Nzechukwu via TKO/KO/DQ (+125) ★★★★

As I alluded to earlier, this will end violently for Cutelaba. Nzechukwu’s last three wins inside the Octagon ended via KO/TKO, and seven of his 10 career victories have been stoppages.

Conversely, Cutelaba was finished inside the distance in each of his past four losses and has been stopped six times in his career. If you’re really looking to hedge your bets, you can always nab Nzechukwu to win via TKO/KO/DQ or submission (+110 via Bet365), but since he hasn’t tapped anyone in his career, I’m comfortable with backing a TKO/KO/DQ finish.

Prop bet: Lewis vs. Spivac to end via KO/TKO (-230) ★★★★

If you’re backing either Lewis or Spivac but are afraid of the terrifying knockout risk that comes with the heavyweight division, this is the perfect bet for you. There’s been a stoppage in six-straight fights for Lewis, and 21 of his 26 career bouts ended via TKO/KO. Seven of Spivac’s 15 career victories have been of the KO/TKO variety, and two of his three losses ended with “The Polar Bear” counting the lights.

Conventional wisdom suggests that one of these men will be making an unscheduled trip to the Land of Nod, so there’s actually some decent value at -230, especially if you attach it to a parlay.

Parlay: Lewis (+168) + Nzechukwu By KO/TKO (+125) + Maddalena by KO/TKO (-180) = +838

The biggest favorite on the card, there isn’t a ton of value in backing Maddalena unless you’re looking to juice up a parlay. That said, I expect him to completely outstyle Roberts, so there’s some definite value in betting he’ll finish this one inside the distance.

Where to Bet on UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spivac

See our top-rated sportsbooks:

UFC Fight Night best bets made 11/19/2022 at 7:31 a.m. ET.

Written By:
Kyle Smith

A sportswriter for more than a decade, Kyle Smith was once voted “World’s 78th Greatest Lover” by ‘Relatively Attractive People Magazine’.* After covering nearly every sport under the sun for theScore, Smith settled in as head MMA writer where he helped shape the company’s coverage and establish its combat sports identity. Since then, he’s dipped his toes (cannonballed) into the world of betting, where he specializes in the UFC and NHL. Constantly chasing that gigantic Parlay Dragon, Smith was devastated when a Leon Edwards head kick completely obliterated a recent five-leg parlay. You can read his rantings and ravings on Twitter @Heldrificus. *Not a real publication.