Green vs. Pimblett Prediction, Expert Picks & Odds: UFC 304
At long last, Bobby Green has the grudge match he asked for.
After months of callouts and jawing, the fan favorite will meet highly touted prospect Paddy Pimblett in the latter’s home country at UFC 304 tonight at Manchester Co-op Live, as we offer our Green vs. Pimblett predictions for this compelling lightweight clash.
The 37-year-old Green (-110) heads to enemy territory just over three months following his thrashing of Jim Miller at UFC 300. The lopsided decision win got the veteran back in the win column after a short-notice KO loss to Jalin Turner suffered in December and brought his UFC record to 13-10-1.
England’s Pimblett (-110), by comparison, makes only his sixth walk to the Octagon with tonight's date on home soil. The lauded prospect kicked off his UFC career with three straight stoppage victories before claiming decisions over Jared Gordon and Tony Ferguson over the past two years. He enters his stiffest test yet with a career record of 21-3 and 15 stoppage wins to his name.
Green vs. Pimblett prediction & best bet
(UFC picks confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale; odds via our best UFC betting sites)
- Fight prediction: Green moneyline (-110 via Betway) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- My best bet: Green by KO/TKO or submission (+450 via Betway) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Green vs. Pimblett fight analysis
Stats nerds must be salivating at this matchup’s betting lines, as Green enters as a slight favorite on some books and in a pick ’em with others while boasting an edge in most statistical categories of note.
Not only does Green own double Pimblett’s fights and an enormous edge in quality of competition, he’s also the more prolific striker, landing 6.45 significant strikes per minute to Pimblett’s 5.13.
Furthermore, the seasoned vet defends 62% of the opposition’s strike attempts to just 41% for Pimblett, something I expect Green to exploit early and often come fight night. Indeed, the senior fighter will be the first man to properly test Pimblett’s chin, which he often leaves untucked when throwing strikes.
Speaking of strikes, Pimblett’s aren’t the most polished, as the English prospect does his best work on the mat. Having wrestled in his youth before donning four-ounce gloves, Green can both score and defend takedowns, and don’t be surprised if he does a bit of both at Pimblett’s expense.
Pimblett’s confidence, win streak, and skills on the mat are all commendable. Yet the UFC brass has treated him with kid gloves until now, and Green has the versatile game and varied striking to remind him of that once the cage door shuts.
Lines on this lightweight bout are a mixed bag among our top sportsbooks, with several justifiably listing Green as a slight favorite, while others have him and Pimblett dead even. Such is the case at Betway as of Saturday afternoon, and I’m taking their action on Green at -110.
Prediction: Green moneyline (-110 via Betway) | Implied probability: 52.6%
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Green vs. Pimblett best bet
While Green isn’t averse to putting in 15 minutes of work, I doubt he’ll need all that to get his hand raised tonight.
With 11 knockouts and nine submissions to his name, Green can finish no matter where the action goes, and Pimblett’s lack of top-notch competition makes me think Green will be adding to one of those totals.
Should the pair stay standing, Green will surely make Pimblett pay for keeping his chin out and maybe even give him the Grant Dawson treatment. If the vet opts for the takedown, I like his chances of scoring damage from top control before putting the squeeze on an outmatched Pimblett.
Luckily, double chance lines on a knockout/submission win for Green are especially tantalizing, with Betway offering a 21st career stoppage at a whopping +450.
Best bet: Green by KO/TKO or submission (+450 via Betway) | Implied probability: 18.2%
Green vs. Pimblett odds
(Odds via Betway as of Friday)
| Green | Method of victory | Pimblett |
|---|---|---|
| -110 | Win outright | -110 |
| +500 | Win by KO/TKO/DQ | +600 |
| +162 | Win by unanimous decision | +275 |
| +5000 | Draw | +5000 |
Green vs. Pimblett tale of the tape
| Green | Pimblett | |
|---|---|---|
| 37 | Age | 29 |
| 5'10" | Height | 5'10" |
| 154.5 | Weight | 156 |
| 71" | Reach | 73" |
| 32-15-1 | Record | 21-3 |
Green vs. Pimblett fight info
- When: Saturday, July 27 at 10 p.m. ET (main card)
- Where: Co-op Live (Manchester, England)
- How to watch: PPV, ESPN+
- Favorite: Pick 'em via Betway
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