Grasso vs. Araujo UFC Picks, Predictions: Flyweights Headline UFC Vegas 62
A potential women's flyweight title eliminator headlines UFC Vegas 62 on Saturday night when Alexa Grasso battles Viviane Araujo. Read on for our top Grasso-Araujo picks and predictions.
With a dearth of fresh challengers for division overlord Valentina Shevchenko, the winner of Grasso-Araujo could find themselves at the front of the line at 125 pounds. Ranked fifth at flyweight, Grasso is 3-0 since dropping down from bantamweight. She has racked up consecutive victories over Ji Yeon Kim, Maycee Barber, and Joanne Wood.
The No. 6 ranked Araujo has won three of her last four fights, dropping a decision to former title challenger Katlyn Chookagian, while emerging victorious over Montana De Le Rosa, Roxanne Modafferi, and Andrea Lee.
With Shevchenko looking relatively human in her last title defense against Taila Santos, a demonstrative win could vault either Grasso or Araujo into a championship showdown. Now that we’ve set the table, here are our top picks for Grasso vs. Araujo at UFC Vegas 62 (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Grasso vs. Araujo Fight Info
Date/Time: Saturday, Oct. 15, 7 p.m. ET (main card)
TV: ESPN +, TSN
Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, NV
Grasso vs. Araujo Picks
- Moneyline: Grasso (-220 FanDuel)
- Over/Under Over 4.5 rounds (-220 DraftKings)
- Prop: Grasso to win via points (+125 FanDuel)
Who Will Win Grasso vs. Araujo?
Grasso (-220) ★★★★
This is Grasso’s fight to win as long as she keeps the bout upright. Grasso is a faster, better striker, who lands at a higher volume. She also takes much less damage than Araujo, absorbing 3.79 significant strikes per minute to the Brazilian’s 5.13. Araujo’s best course of action would be to drag Grasso down to the mat where she can unleash her black-belt level grappling, but I just don’t see her pulling it off.
Instead, Grasso should outwork Araujo on the feet, using her superior speed and technical striking to repeatedly beat her opponent to the punch.
Grasso vs. Araujo O/U Pick
Over 4.5 rounds (-220) ★★★★
Grasso may be a talented fighter, but she’s definitely not a venomous finisher. Nine of her 14 career victories were by way of decision, and four of her last five bouts have seen the final bell. Although Araujo has a higher finishing percentage than Grasso, she’s seen the judge’s scorecards in six straight fights.
Since I don’t expect anyone to be completely outclassed on Saturday, there’s a very good chance this main event goes the distance.
Grasso vs. Araujo Winning Method Pick
Grasso to win via points (+125) ★★★★
As I’m picking Grasso to win and I’m also betting this bout will go the distance, It’s safe to assume that I’m banking on Grasso to best Araujo over 25 minutes en route to a hard fought unanimous decision victory. As I mentioned earlier, with only one finish in six UFC wins, Grasso isn’t known for violently putting away opponents. This will prove especially hard against the uber-durable Araujo, who has only been finished once in 14 professional fights.
It might not be overly pretty, but Grasso will ultimately springboard herself into the title picture with a successful five-round win.
Where to Bet on Grasso-Araujo Picks
Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:
Grasso-Araujo picks made 10/14/2022 at 11:09 a.m. ET.
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