UFC Predictions & Odds: Expert Picks for UFC 318 - Max Holloway vs. Dustin Poirier 3

Max Holloway meets Dustin Poirier for a third and final time in a storybook ending to the rivalry, headlining my UFC 318 predictions and odds.

Our best sports betting sites list Holloway as a -130 betting favorite over The Diamond, despite the latter being 2-0 in previous bouts against his rival. Prelims begin at 8 p.m. ET (ESPN), with the main card getting underway at 10 p.m. ET (ESPN+ PPV) from Smoothie King Center in New Orleans.

My UFC 318 predictions make a pick for the main event based on the UFC 318 odds, as well as three other fights on the pay-per-view card.

💰 UFC predictions, odds, & picks: Max Holloway vs. Dustin Poirier 3

(Odds via our best UFC betting sites; UFC picks confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale)

• Max Holloway to win by decision vs. Dustin Poirier (+165 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
• Paulo Costa vs. Roman Kopylov to go the distance (-166 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Kevin Holland to win by KO/TKO/DQ vs. Daniel Rodriguez (+195 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
• Patricio Pitbull ML vs. Dan Ige (+195 via ESPN BET) ⭐⭐

🎯 UFC 318 predictions and best bets

🥊 Max Holloway to win by decision vs. Dustin Poirier ⭐⭐⭐

📊 Best odds: +165 via FanDuel ($10 to win $16.50)

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Poirier welcomed Holloway to the UFC with a first-round submission at UFC 143 in 2012. While I'm not expecting Blessed to send the Lafayette, La., native out with a victory on the mats, I do anticipate Holloway to pick up his first career win over Poirier in the latter's final fight.

The 36-year-old has been finished three times in his last five outings. While Holloway certainly possesses the knockout power necessary to finish this one inside the distance, there's something about Poirier that always seems to stump him.

The Diamond's cautious, technical approach - mixed with his grappling ability - has been keeping Holloway from fighting on his front foot. Nevertheless, the current BMF champion possesses the durability to continue landing jabs at a high volume deep into the bout and steal some points in the later rounds.

Holloway's stamina and slim striking advantage will prove to be the difference in this historic fight. I'll take a flier on Blessed to finally get the better of Poirier by decision at the +165 odds our best sports betting apps are offering.

🥊 Paulo Costa vs. Roman Kopylov to go the distance ⭐⭐⭐⭐

📊 Best odds: -166 via FanDuel ($10 to win $6.02)

I wouldn't touch these fighters with a 10-foot pole, nor would I bet on either side with your money, let alone my own. Costa is perhaps the most significant wild card on this pay-per-view ticket. While he's vowed to return to his aggressive roots, I can't afford to bank on any more of Borrachinha's empty promises.

If Costa doesn't come out with the fearless nature that led to him earning a title shot against Israel Adesanya, Kopylov could make quick work of the Brazilian with his southpaw kickboxing. Costa has gone to the judge's scorecard in four of his last five, so I'll play it safe and back that trend to continue at juiced odds.

🥊 Kevin Holland to win by KO/TKO/DQ vs. Daniel Rodriguez ⭐⭐⭐

📊 Best odds: +195 via FanDuel ($10 to win $19.50)

I've seen the light. After betting against Kevin Holland in his last two bouts, I'm done making the mistake of doubting Trailblazer. He's put in two impressive shifts with his back against the wall after previously losing four of his previous five clashes. Now, he's riding high after submitting Vicente Luque during UFC 316.

Daniel Rodriguez has also won in his last two outings, albeit against lesser competition. He's a much more one-dimensional fighter, as the odds display. Holland holds too many advantages as a better defensive fighter, grappler, and striker than Rodriguez.

The latter will look to keep Holland on his feet to give himself a chance. He's only been submitted once, so I don't anticipate the 32-year-old wanting to wrestle to get the finish. Instead, I'll find value (+195 at our best sportsbooks) in backing the heavy favorite while predicting he knocks out D-Rod.

🥊 Patricio Pitbull ML vs. Dan Ige ⭐⭐

📊 Best odds: +195 via ESPN BET ($10 to win $19.50)

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There's a difference between patience and passiveness, as Pitbull learned in his UFC debut. Pitbull admitted he fought scared against Yair Rodriguez, whose stature gave the long-time Bellator champion fits. Dan Ige offers a much more winnable fight for the Brazilian due to their similar builds.

Pitbull possesses experience and a ground advantage over Ige. The American doesn't pose as much of a knockout threat as the 38-year-old's previous opponent despite his hectic nature, which will allow him to close Ige down and fight at full confidence. Fans will hopefully be treated to the Bellator legend's full skill set.

I'm going out on a limb with my final pick of the card and recommending a moneyline bet on the underdog with two stars of confidence. If Pitbull can earn his first victory under the UFC promotion, a $10 wager pays out $19.50 in profit with ESPN BET.

❓UFC 318 FAQs

Who is favored to win UFC tonight?

Max Holloway is a -130 favorite over Dustin Poirier (+124) in the UFC 318 main event. Holloway's odds imply a 56.52% probability he wins the third installment of this rivalry.

How do UFC odds work?

UFC odds work similarly to odds in other sports. The moneyline is used by bettors to pick the fight's winner, with the minus-money odds indicating the winner and the plus-money line displaying the underdog.

For example, Max Holloway's moneyline odds are trading at -130, meaning bettors must wager $13 to profit $10 if Holloway wins the bout. Meanwhile, a $10 bet on Poirier to win at a +124 price returns $12.40 if the underdog wins.

There are also a plethora of prop markets available for the UFC, including, but not limited to: method of victory, winning round, and distance betting.

Who will win Max Holloway vs. Dustin Poirier?

I believe Max Holloway will defeat Dustin Poirier by decision (+165 via FanDuel) in the main event at UFC 318.

💵 Best UFC betting sites

Ready to bet on UFC 318? Check out the best UFC betting sites and best sportsbook promos for this weekend's card:

• FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
• DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
• Hard Rock Bet Promo Code | Read our Hard Rock Bet Review

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