⚽ Uruguay World Cup 2026 Odds & Predictions: Can Bielsa’s Roster Make a Deep Run?
Uruguay enters the 2026 FIFA World Cup in a transitional moment.
With Luis Suarez making himself unavailable for selection, then backtracking when it was too late, and with Edinson Cavani retiring after the 2022 World Cup, Marcelo Bielsa will have to rely on Federico Valverde, who has developed into one of Europe’s most complete midfielders since Qatar, and Darwin Nunez.
Below, we break down the Uruguay World Cup odds and analyze whether La Celeste is under- or overvalued at +6500, the 17th-shortest odds.
📊 Uruguay World Cup odds 2026
The best World Cup betting sites will offer plenty of markets, but here are some of the best from DraftKings; odds updated June 6 and subject to change:
| Market | Odds | Probability | Profit ($10 bet) |
|---|---|---|---|
| To win outright (champion) | +6500 | 1.52% | $650 |
| To reach final | +2000 | 4.76% | $200 |
| To reach semifinals | +650 | 13.33% | $65 |
| To reach quarterfinals | +300 | 25% | $30 |
| To reach last 16 | +135 | 42.55% | $13.50 |
Stage of elimination
In a similar vein, you can bet where a team will be eliminated as opposed to how far they'll advance in the tournament.
| Stage of elimination | Odds | Probability | Profit ($10 bet) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 32 | -110 | 52.38% | $9.09 |
| Last 16 | +350 | 22.22% | $35 |
| Group Stage | +500 | 16.67% | $50 |
| Quarterfinals | +650 | 13.33% | $65 |
| Semifinals | +1200 | 7.69% | $120 |
| Runner-up | +2500 | 3.85% | $250 |
| Outright Winner | +6500 | 1.52% | $650 |
🏆 Uruguay World Cup 2026 predictions and best bets
Uruguay to reach last 16 (+125)
The market is undervaluing Uruguay after it finished 3rd in the 2024 Copa America and beat Brazil in the quarterfinals - yet Brazil is still tied for the fifth-shortest odds to win the World Cup at +900, while Uruguay is +6500.
Yes, Uruguay isn't on the same level as Brazil, but its odds should be closer to Colombia's (+4000). There's value in betting Uruguay to reach any elimination stage, since the market is down on it, but the most realistic outcome is a Round of 16 exit. Fair odds for Uruguay to reach the last 16 should be -105 (no vig).
⚽ Uruguay World Cup 2026 roster
Bielsa’s World Cup roster is projected to be the fourth-best South American team (behind Argentina, Brazil, and Colombia).
| Player (position) | Parent club |
|---|---|
| Sergio Rochet (goalkeeper) | Internacional |
| Santiago Mele (goalkeeper) | Monterrey |
| Fernando Muslera (goalkeeper) | Estudiantes de La Plata |
| Jose Maria Gimenez (defender) | Atletico Madrid |
| Sebastian Caceres (defender) | America |
| Ronald Araujo (defender) | Barcelona |
| Guillermo Varela (defender) | Flamengo |
| Mathias Olivera (defender) | Napoli |
| Matias Vina (defender) | River Plate |
| Joaquin Piquerez (defender) | Palmeiras |
| Santiago Bueno (defender) | Wolverhampton Wanderers |
| Manuel Ugarte (midfielder) | Manchester United |
| Rodrigo Bentancur (midfielder) | Tottenham Hotspur |
| Nicolas de la Cruz (midfielder) | Flamengo |
| Federico Valverde (midfielder) | Real Madrid |
| Giorgian de Arrascaeta (midfielder) | Flamengo |
| Facundo Pellistri (midfielder) | Panathinaikos |
| Emiliano Martinez (midfielder) | Palmeiras |
| Maxi Araujo (midfielder) | Sporting CP |
| Juan Manuel Sanabria (midfielder) | Real Salt Lake |
| Rodrigo Zalazar (midfielder) | Braga |
| Darwin Nunez (forward) | Al Hilal |
| Agustin Canobbio (forward) | Fluminense |
| Brian Rodriguez (forward) | America |
| Rodrigo Aguirre (forward) | Tigres UANL |
| Federico Vinas (forward) | Real Oviedo |
Uruguay's World Cup Group Stage schedule
Uruguay's three games against Saudi Arabia, Cape Verde, and Spain are set for the following dates:
- June 15: vs. Saudi Arabia (Hard Rock Stadium - Miami Gardens, Fla.)
- June 21: vs. Cape Verde (Hard Rock Stadium - Miami Gardens, Fla.)
- June 26: vs. Spain (Estadio Akron - Guadalajara, Mexico)
❓ FIFA World Cup 2026 FAQ
Who is the favorite to win the World Cup?
Spain is a +450 betting favorite to win the World Cup at DraftKings. These odds imply an 18.18% win probability.
Who won the last World Cup?
Argentina won the 2022 World Cup in Qatar.
Where is the 2026 World Cup?
Canada, Mexico, and the United States will host the 2026 World Cup, with 16 cities holding matches. The host cities are:
- Toronto (Canada)
- Vancouver (Canada)
- Guadalajara (Mexico)
- Mexico City (Mexico)
- Monterrey (Mexico)
- Atlanta
- Boston
- Dallas
- Houston
- Kansas City
- Los Angeles
- Miami
- New York / New Jersey
- Philadelphia
- Seattle
- San Francisco / Bay Area
When is the 2026 World Cup?
The 2026 World Cup is set to run from June 11, 2026, until the final on July 19, 2026.
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