Premier League Best Bets Matchweek 5: EPL Expert Picks & Predictions

It's Matchweek 5, and we have our Premier League best bets to round out your cards ahead of all the action. We still have seven undefeated teams: Arsenal, Manchester City, Leeds, Hull, Brentford, Liverpool, and Everton. We still have five teams without a win: Bournemouth, Spurs, Fulham, Villa, and Coventry. 

Taking it a step further: Arsenal and City are four-for-four in the win column. Tottenham and Coventry haven't scored a single goal - and Coventry has lost all four.

Shockingly, our best bets don't feature much from the extreme outliers.

🔮 Premier League best bets: Matchweek 5

Here are my Premier League predictions for Matchweek 5 as part of our soccer picks this week.

💰 Best Premier League bet: Liverpool Over 5.5 corners vs. Bournemouth (+100)

Liverpool hasn't exactly been racking up corners this season, but Sunday at Bournemouth seems like an excellent time for that to change. The ball should spend most of the time at the feet of the Reds, with a predicted XI featuring a number of players that will attack from wide spaces, increasing the likelihood of blocked crosses.

Liverpool's high press (8.6 PPDA) and box-entry volume should force Bournemouth into repeated defensive actions where blocked crosses and clearances should help generate corner opportunities. Bournemouth gives up 5 corners per game, we're just looking for one extra.

Sitting right at +100, I'm happy to dedicate a unit to this play, and about a half unit if it goes to -110. Beyond that, and I'd pass.

🔥 More Premier League Matchweek 5 predictions

Ipswich Under 0.5 goals vs. Everton (+162)

It's going to be difficult for Ipswich to generate chances on Saturday at Hill Dickinson Stadium in Liverpool. At first blush, you don't consider the blue Merseyside team to be amongst the league's top defensive teams, but that's exactly what they've been this season. Everton is giving up just 3.5 SOT/game this season, fifth in the league, and their 1.38 xGA is pretty respectable. In six games across all comps, Everton has blanked opponents four times.

The Toffee's compact defensive shape should force the visitors into low-quality attempts from outside the box. I'll do this one at three-quarters of a unit at +162. I feel the price has missed the mark by a wide margin: for me, this should be in the +130 range. Any longer than that, and I'm still interested. 

Brighton Over 10.5 shots vs. Arsenal (-120)

Sure, Arsenal's defense is arguably the best in the league, but this Brighton team is playing far beyond what any of us expected just one month ago, and a big reason for that is their league-leading press. The Seagulls' 6.6 PPDA is 2 full actions fewer than the next-closest team (Liverpool at 8.6), which often leads to high turnovers that can result in shots. 

This is way lower than BHA's 19.5 shots per game, which I think is fair with Arsenal's shot suppression. I actually don't mind a mini-ladder with the 11.5 and 12.5, either, in truth. But for a single line, I'll look toward the most attainable 11 shots. I don't think they'll have 70% as they have all season (mind you, they've had two games with red cards); I don't necessarily think they'll win or even score. But they don't have to do that to cash this bet.

Leeds Over 5.5 corners vs. Crystal Palace (+110)

Like Everton above, Leeds are another team that have started the season strong that perhaps we didn't see coming, but this is more about Palace than Leeds. The defense has been absolutely abysmal, allowing 41 touches in their box per game, and the lineups for this one should play directly into this one hitting.

Leeds will play a 3-5-2 with their wings pinning back the defenders in Palace's 3-4-2-1 and generate wide entries. That, combined with Palace's box touches allowed, should result in crosses, blocks, and defensive clearances. 

A half-unit on this one for me as long as it stays north of +100.