Newcastle vs. Everton Prediction, Picks & Odds for Monday's Premier League Match
My Newcastle vs. Everton prediction looks to take advantage of the host's sieve-like defense by capitalizing on an Everton volume play. These teams met just four days ago about three-hours away in Liverpool, when Everton picked up a commanding win the Carabao Cup.
I don't expect the same outcome on Monday when the action from St. James' Park's action starts at 3 p.m. ET. Despite falling 3-1 just days ago (with a heavily rotated lineup), Newcastle is a +115 moneyline favorite today, and you can watch it all on USA Network.
Newcastle vs. Everton predictions & best bets
See our experts' soccer picks.
| Best bets | Best odds | Bet size |
|---|---|---|
| Everton Over 11.5 shots | -150 via bet365 | 1 units to profit 0.67 units |
| Newcastle Under 4.5 shots on target | +100 via bet365 | 0.5 units to profit 0.5 units |
| Everton +0.25 | +100 via bet365 | 0.5 units to profit 0.5 units |
Picks submitted: Nov 2. at 8:30 a.m. ET
Total wagered: 2 units | Profit if all picks win: 1.67 units
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Newcastle vs. Everton best bet
Check out all of our soccer betting analysis and expert predictions this season.
Everton Over 11.5 shots (-150 via bet365)
This is a play more on Newcastle's defensive shots allowed volume more than an endorsement of Everton's attack. The Magpies have allowed 17.25 shots per game, with opponents hitting at least 15 in seven of their opening eight EPL games. The one game their opponent didn't hit this mark was a 4-1 loss at Coventry that saw the Prem newcomers leading from the sixth minute.
Newcastle plays with an aggressive press (9.9 PPDA per Opta Analyst), which Everton can bypass with Thierno Barry before supporting him with wide runners. Everton are unlikely to control territory at St. James' Park, and winning second balls will be imperative for this bet to cash; both squads average the same number of duels won per game, so that goal is within reach.
Play to: this is my line here, if it goes any further I'd drop to a half until on the Over 12.5 shots until -110
🆚 Who will win Newcastle vs. Everton?
Newcastle will have a slight possession edge on Monday, but Everton's defense is much stauncher and will funnel those possessions into blocked shots and difficult finishes. Everton can threaten through transition and set pieces, taking advantage of the looser Magpies defense.
Score prediction: Newcastle 1, Everton 1
More Newcastle vs. Everton expert picks
Newcastle Under 4.5 shots on target (+100)
Newcastle got nine on target on Thursday, but I don't see them chasing this one like they were in the cup draw midweek. They average only 3.4 SOT per EPL game, comfortably below the five that would make this one fail and below my projection here which is in the range of four. The odds (-188) on the 5.5 line are simply too long, but I'd play that instead in the -170 range if it moved that way ahead of the game.
The Tarkowski-Branthwaite duo in the middle of Everton's defensive line has been tough all season, blocking off shooting lanes and making it difficult for opposing offenses to find room to operate in the box. Newcastle will look to work around that with wide attacks, but they make it harder to get direct shots on target as they more often result in blocked crosses and cleared balls.
Play to: I'm happy here to -110, but then it's a pass
Everton +0.25 asian handicap (+100)
Everton having a quarter-goal start here makes this appealing at plus-money. Despite having scored fewer goals, the Toffees have piled up more big chances (24 to 14). Given that difference we can suggest that Everton's attacking threat is stronger than the raw goal totals would suggest. A soft defense from the host might be just what Everton needs to take advantage of.
Everton isn't the biggest threat to score via set pieces in the league (0.33 xG/game), but Newcastle is also not great at defending them (0.45 xG allowed/game - the fifth-worst mark in the league), so that provides another avenue where the visitors can get on the board despite not controlling possession.
A draw produces a half-profit victory, so the odds here are slightly more appealing than the draw no bet market.
Play to: If this goes shorter than +100, I'd rather look to the plus money on the DNB.
Newcastle vs. Everton key stats
All stats below are for the Premier League season unless otherwise noted.
| Newcastle United | Everton | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3-2-3 | 2-4-2 |
| Home/Away Record | 1-2-1 at home | 0-3-1 away |
| Recent form (all comps) | LWLLWL | WWDLLW |
| Goals for | 12 | 8 |
| xG | 9.07 | 10.06 |
| Goals against | 14 | 9 |
| xGA | 13.68 | 11.69 |
| Average possession | 51.2% | 46.5% |
Newcastle vs. Everton odds
Newcastle vs. Everton projected lineups
Here are the projected lineups for Newcastle vs. Everton; subject to change:
| Newcastle United (4-2-3-1) | Everton (4-2-3-1) |
|---|---|
| Hornicek (GK) | Pickford (GK) |
| Dedic (D) | Rohl (D) |
| Schar (D) | Tarkowski (D) |
| Burn (D) | Branthwaite (D) |
| Hall (D) | Mykolenko (D) |
| Gonzalez (M) | Armstrong (M) |
| Joelinton (M) | Garner (M) |
| Elanga (M) | Johnson (M) |
| Willock (M) | Dewsbury-Hall (M) |
| Barnes (M) | George (M) |
| Wissa (F) | Barry (F) |
Newcastle vs. Everton injuries
Newcastle United:
- Lewis Miley (knock) - questionable
- Matias Fernandez-Prato (illness) - questionable
- Valentino Livramento (knock) - out
- William Osula (ankle) - questionable
Everton:
- None
How to watch Newcastle vs. Everton
- Date: Monday, Nov. 2
- Kickoff: 3 p.m. ET
- Location: St. James' Park (Newcastle upon Tyne, England)
- TV/Streaming: USA Network, Universo
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