NFL Moneyline Picks for Week 9: Best Bets to Win Every Game

My NFL moneyline picks for Week 9 look to build off of last week’s profitable 9-3 record (including a 3-0 record on picks that had more in-depth analysis) heading into the Monday Night Football matchup, including cashing nine of the top 11 most confident plays.

There were only three upsets heading into the primetime slate of Week 8. But favorites were also just 7-5 ATS, and that has me intrigued to back at least one big underdog, after 11 NFL favorites of at least six points have lost outright entering this week.

NFL moneyline picks: Week 9

See all of our experts' NFL picks for Week 9 based on the latest NFL odds; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

My best NFL Week 9 moneyline bets

Want more NFL betting advice? Check out all of our NFL analysis and expert predictions for every game in Week 9.

Browns vs. Saints (-142 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐

Perhaps I’m being too critical in fading the 5-3 Browns last week, as Cleveland shouldn’t have been expected to win last week anyway. After all, the Browns are now 0-23 in their last 23 road games at Pittsburgh, which is tied for the longest road losing streak against a single opponent in NFL history.

But Cleveland had a lot of worrisome things happen last week that don’t inspire confidence playing a team off a bye. The Browns finished the first quarter with more lost fumbles (two) than total yards (minus-1), and have now allowed six rushing touchdowns over the last two weeks. That should help New Orleans get a running game going that totaled just 18 rushing yards in its last game, its fewest since 1999.

The Browns have won just four of their last five games since 2024 when at a rest disadvantage, while New Orleans has won just 37.9% of its games since 2023, but 57.1% of them as home favorites (eight of 14).

More Week 9 picks

Packers vs. Patriots (-142 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

New England mustered just three points in the first half against Miami last week, but the way Drake Maye and the offense got it going in the second half inspires confidence heading into this week.

Maye was perfect on throws of 10+ air yards against Miami, going 5-for-5 for 149 yards and two touchdowns. He has now thrown six touchdown passes of 20 or more air yards without an interception since Week 4, which are the most such touchdowns in the league in that span.

Maye now has five straight games with three or more total touchdowns. He is the first Patriots quarterback with that long of a streak since Tom Brady had 10 in 2007. As long as New England can protect Maye against a Green Bay pass rush that is coming off a season-high six sacks, it should win for the 12th time in the last 13 games as home favorites under Mike Vrabel.

Bills vs. Vikings (+130 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐

Buffalo’s defense is getting a lot of praise for an ultra-aggressive game plan in Week 8, after blitzing on 64.5% of opposing dropbacks (the Bills’ highest blitz rate since 2021). But it is more tempting for a defense to pin its ears back after an opponent loses its starting quarterback to injury on the first play of the game, then finishing the game with a third-string signal caller for an entire half.

Minnesota is an eerily similar opponent to Houston which Buffalo lost to in a primetime road game last year, where the Texans got home for eight sacks and forced Josh Allen into two interceptions. The Vikings blitzed Jared Goff on all but three of his dropbacks last week (the highest blitz rate by any team since at least 2018).

Minnesota’s offense generated just 266 yards and 15 first downs against a Lions defense that entered the week with the worst pass defense and total defense. But the offense should be more comfortable playing at home and faces a Bills defense that entered last week ranked last in opponents’ points per drive.

More Week 9 predictions

Want more NFL betting advice? Check out all of our NFL analysis and expert predictions for every game in Week 9.