College Football Moneyline Picks Week 10: Predictions to Win This Week

My college football moneyline picks went a profitable 14-6 last week, including cashing 11 of my last 13 plays overall. We hit on two underdog plays of +100 and +115 odds, and have largely avoided the chaos that saw 11 AP top-10 teams lose over the prior three weeks (tied for the most in a three-week span in AP Poll history).

The Week 10 slate sets up as one of the most intriguing in recent memory, and I make my best play in the top-5 matchup between Miami and Notre Dame, while providing further analysis on an ACC game and two Big Ten matchups.

College football moneyline picks: Week 10

See all of our experts' college football picks for Week 10 based on the latest college football odds.

Best college football moneyline picks: Week 10

No. 21 Iowa (+105 via DraftKings) vs. Northwestern

Bet size: 1 unit

Some were down on Iowa’s rest of season outlook after Kamari Moulton, who still ranks in the top 10 of the Big Ten in rushing yards, was lost for the season with an upper body injury. But if the Hawkeyes continue to play the defense they’re known for, like when they shut out Wisconsin and held the Badgers to nine first downs and 4-for-13 on third down, it won’t matter who is in their backfield. 

Perhaps Iowa can make up for the loss of Moulton with more consistent play from quarterback Hank Brown, who made his first start since the loss to Ohio State. Brown completed 83% of his passes, including 190 in the first half. Iowa played great complementary football with kicker Caden Buhr drilling a career-long 54-yard field goal. 

Northwestern may no longer be ranked after an eight-point loss at Oregon, but it’s worth noting that Iowa has beaten two ranked opponents for the first time since 2021.

Syracuse (+100 via DraftKings) vs. Clemson

Bet size: 1 unit

Syracuse has earned a quiet reputation as a giant slayer, as last week’s 30-27 win over then-No. 19 SMU improved its record to 3-0 at home under head coach Fran Brown against AP Top 25 opponents. And while Clemson has lost a lot of the shine from its recent glory years under Dabo Swinney, that should not have the Orange any less fired up to move over .500 for the first time since Week 1 and earn a third straight victory as underdogs.

Syracuse entered last week possessing the ball for more than 33:30 per game before narrowly losing the time of possession battle to SMU. But the Orange overcame that by winning the turnover margin by two, and making the Mustangs one-dimensional with limiting them to 2.3 yards per carry.

The Orange ran for 138 yards last week. But prior to that, they ran for 199 yards against North Carolina, 174 yards against UConn, and 163 yards against Virginia. That stretch accounted for three of the four-highest single-game rushing totals in the Fran Brown era.

Lastly, Syracuse improved to 11-5 under Brown in one-score games. Prior to last week’s three-point win, its 10 one-score wins since the start of 2024 were tied for seventh-most in FBS.

Washington (-120 via BetMGM) vs. Penn State

Bet size: 1 unit

Washington turned in its best defensive performance of the season last week in a 17-10 road upset of Nebraska. It was ugly for 57 minutes as the Cornhuskers led 7-3 late in the fourth quarter, but the Huskies ultimately prevailed by winning the turnover margin by three points. Thus, I’m taking the optimistic approach on a Huskies team that found a way to win a road game despite being outgained by 120 yards and 100 yards on the ground.

Washington needs more from an offense that entered last week 62nd or worse in offensive success rate and adjusted EPA per play. But the Huskies quietly had solid metrics ranking in the top 47 in adjusted net EPA per play and overall success rate. I’m not buying a late season Penn State resurgence after its 31-17 win over Purdue, as the Boilermakers defense entered that game ranked 121st or worse in both EPA per run and EPA per pass.