Best Lionel Messi Props & Odds: Expert Prop Picks for Sunday, July 19
Lionel Messi and Argentina have survived another scare and are now just one win away from being the first nation to win back-to-back World Cups since Brazil in 1958 and 1962. I'm making my best Lionel Messi props and odds as part of my top World Cup predictions ahead of Sunday's World Cup final.
To win, Messi will need to navigate a staunch Spanish defense with six shutouts at this World Cup. Can he lead his side to victory?
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⚽Best Lionel Messi props: July 19
See all of our experts' World Cup picks based on the latest World Cup odds and favorites
| 💰 Best bets | 📊 Best odds | ⚖️ Wager (units) |
|---|---|---|
| Lionel Messi to record 1+ assists | +320 via DraftKings | 1u -> 3.2u |
| Lionel Messi Under 3.5 shots | -138 via bet365 | 1.5u -> 1.09u |
| Lionel Messi to be the last goalscorer | +500 via FanDuel | 0.25u -> 1.25u |
Total wagered: 2.75 units | Max profit: 5.54 units
‼️ Not coming easy
Nothing is going to be easy for Messi or Argentina's offense. While the Argentines are averaging 2.71 goals per game, Spain has allowed just one goal all tournament.
But it's not just that Spain isn't allowing many goals. Spain also isn't allowing many opportunities, giving up just 0.32 expected goals per contest.
💰 Best Lionel Messi prop prediction
Lionel Messi to record 1+ assists (+320) vs. Spain
Messi hasn't scored in back-to-back games, but he's assisted on three goals during that stretch. In fact, he has at least one assist in three consecutive matches.
Spain's defense has been nearly impossible for opposing offenses to navigate, which is why I'm not backing Messi to score. But he has been absolutely lethal on corners at this World Cup, and his crosses late against England were incredible to watch. For +320, I'll support him to put a dangerous ball in the box that ultimately finds a teammate's foot.
💵 SBR Edge: Messi is willing to adjust
Argentina attempted 15 shots against England, but Messi only recorded one attempt, with zero shots on target. This wasn't because Messi was less aggressive. It's because he took what the defense gave him and realized that he was better suited as a provider than a scorer in the match. I expect a similar approach against Spain's defense.
🔥 More Lionel Messi props for Sunday
Lionel Messi Under 3.5 shots (-138) vs. Spain
If you thought Spain's competition was the reason for its defensive success early, you likely think differently after what the Spanish did to the French in the semifinals. The French managed just 10 shots, three on target, and 0.31 expected goals.
Kylian Mbappé, who is tied with Messi with eight World Cup goals, finished with three shots, none of which were on target. Messi has at least four shots in five of the six games he's started at this World Cup. However, England did a great job keeping him in check, allowing just one shot. And, as I've already highlighted, I don't expect Messi to force the issue if Spain's defense gets under his feet. Instead, he'll look to be a playmaker and get teammates involved.
Lionel Messi to be the last goalscorer (+500)
The story of Argentina's World Cup has been late goals. Nine of their 11 goals in the knockout stage have been scored in the 75th minute or later, and I expect Argentina to attack late, looking for an equalizer against Spain.
Five of Messi's eight goals at this World Cup have come in the 60th-minute or later. With the Argentines scoring 12 of their 19 goals after the 75th-minute, I expect them to score the last goal of this game, even if they still end up losing.
I'm taking this over Messi to score at any time, because his price for that prop is +130 or worse at every major sportsbook, which is too expensive considering Spain has allowed a goal just once in seven matches.
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