Chelsea vs. Bournemouth Prediction, Picks & Odds for Saturday's Premier League Match
My Chelsea vs. Bournemouth prediction offers the best way to approach a game between two teams in a lull ahead of the break.
Chelsea started strong but were winless in three heading into the break, with early dreams of competing for the title followed by a slide to the middle of the table; Bournemouth is one of three teams yet to win, but three draws and goal differential have them sitting above the drop.
Play from Stamford Bridge in London gets underway at 10 a.m. ET, streaming on Peacock.
Chelsea vs. Bournemouth predictions & best bets
See our experts' soccer picks.
| Best bets | Best odds | Wager (units) |
|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth Over 10.5 shots | -150 via bet365 | 0.75 units to profit 0.5 units |
| Bournemouth Over 2.5 cards | +120 via bet365 | 0.5 units to profit 0.6 units |
| Emi Martinez to record 3+ saves | -138 via bet365 | 0.5 units to profit 0.36 units |
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Chelsea vs. Bournemouth best bet
Check out all of our soccer betting analysis and expert predictions this season.
Bournemouth Over 10.5 shots (-150)
Even without controlling possession, Bournemouth should be able to drum up enough offense against an aggressive Chelsea side. Their expected 3-4-2-1 shape can leave space behind the wing-backs, giving the visitors a path to get into shooting territory via Rayan, Evanilson, and Tavernier.
Bournemouth should have enough possession and counterattacking opportunities to reach 11.
Chelsea's defense hasn't been particularly adept at keeping the opposition at bay, allowing 14, 15, 16, 13, and 13 shots to start the season. Some of those figures came against offensive powerhouses like Fulham and Hull; that's the same sort of class as Bournemouth.
I'm going to go with 0.75 units here, but if you're so inclined, sprinkling on Over 11.5 shots (+100) and Over 12.5 shots (+150) isn't terrible out of line, and you could lay a quarter-unit on each. Provided you hit the base leg you're breaking even.
🆚 Who will win Chelsea vs. Bournemouth?
Chelsea should control possession and territory at Stamford Bridge, but Bournemouth will have m opportunities to attack in transition. It should be a competitive game with Bournemouth generating enough attacking volume to test Chelsea's defense, while Chelsea's territorial advantage keeps the visitors defending for long stretches.
Score prediction: Chelsea 2, Bournemouth 1
More Chelsea vs. Bournemouth expert picks
Bournemouth Over 2.5 cards (+120)
As mentioned above, Chelsea is expected to be on the front foot for most of the game, and Bournemouth being forced to play defense first on the road sets up a strong path to three or more cards. Bournemouth have already collected 14 yellows through five games (the second most in the league), and their 60 fouls are in the top half of the league.
The referee adds another angle here, with Samuel Beckett on the whistle. While it's far from a shoo-in, he averages 3.9 yellows per game, so he's not a stranger to getting out the book.
There's no need for an extreme card performance here, just a little over average, and the +120 price is doing enough work here to justify a half of a unit.
Emi Martinez to record 3+ saves (-138)
This follows the same logic as the Bournemouth shots angle above, just from the other side. Martinez has been super busy since joining Chelsea, turning away no fewer than three shots in any game (and eight in one start). The Blues are actually the league's worst team for SOT allowed, giving up 6.4 on-target shots per game (almost a full shot more than second-place Palace), and their 26.8 box touches allowed are also near the bottom of the league. Chelsea's 45.1% SOT allowed is the worst in the league, with opponents converting nearly half their overall shots on target.
If Bournemouth can get near the 11-13 shot range I'm projecting, they should conceivably get 3-5 on target, and Emi is as likely as any goalie in the league to turn them away. The World Cup-winning netminder can produce highlight-reel stops with the best of them.
Chelsea vs. Bournemouth key stats
| Chelsea | Bournemouth | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 2-1-2 | 0-3-2 |
| Home/Away Record | 1-1-0 at home | 0-1-1 on the road |
| Recent form (all comps) | WWLWDL | DDWDWL |
| Goals for | 10 | 6 |
| xG | 7.29 | 6.72 |
| Goals Against | 8 | 12 |
| xGA | 6.94 | 8.82 |
| Average possession | 47.7% | 47.5% |
Chelsea vs. Bournemouth odds
Chelsea vs. Bournemouth projected lineups
Here are the projected lineups for Chelsea vs. Bournemouth; subject to change:
| Chelsea (3-4-2-1) | Bournemouth (4-2-3-1) |
|---|---|
| Martinez (GK) | Petrovic (GK) |
| Fofana (D) | Smith (D) |
| Lacroix (D) | Hill (D) |
| Colwill (D) | Silva (D) |
| Neto (M) | Truffert (D) |
| Henderson (M) | Adams (M) |
| Barco (M) | Cook (M) |
| Chavarria (M) | Rayan (M) |
| Palmer (M) | Christie (M) |
| Rogers (M) | Tavernier (M) |
| Welbeck (F) | Evanilson (F) |
How to watch Chelsea vs. Bournemouth
- Date: Saturday, Oct. 10
- Kickoff: 10 a.m. ET
- Location: Stamford Bridge (London)
- TV/Streaming: Peacock
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