2021-22 Stanley Cup Odds: Hurricanes Offer Top Value
The Carolina Hurricanes come into 2022 with the best record in the National Hockey League and yet there are five teams with shorter odds to win the Stanley Cup.
At the start of 2022, there is consistency in the NHL futures odds for the Carolina Hurricanes. They are +1300 to win the Stanley Cup on FanDuel Sportsbook as well as +1400 on both DraftKings Sportsbook and BetMGM.
It's hard to win the Stanley Cup and it's maybe understandable that other teams would be more likely to win. However, this does seem like a favorable price for Carolina given the Hurricanes’ dominance to this point in the season.
Stanley Cup Odds
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The Numbers
The first point in the Hurricanes’ favor is that with a 23-7-1 record, they have the best points percentage (.758) in the NHL. This is despite playing 18 of 31 games on the road.
The underlying numbers indicate that Carolina is not doing this with smoke and mirrors, either. The statistical foundation is strong. Carolina has the best goal differential in the league (+40) and ranks first in 5-on-5 score-and-venue-adjusted Corsi (57.9%). The Hurricanes are also second in scoring chance percentage (57.1%) and fifth in expected goals percentage (55.1%). This is a legitimately dominant team during 5-on-5 play.
On the power play, Carolina has a net 8.59 goals per 60 minutes during 5-on-4 play, which ranks eighth. While shorthanded, the Hurricanes are best in class, allowing a net 3.41 goals against per 60 minutes of 4-on-5 play.
A dominant 5-on-5 team with outstanding penalty killing and an above-average power play. This sounds like the recipe for a Stanley Cup contender.
The Hurricanes have been a playoff team for three straight seasons under head coach Rod Brind'Amour. They were eliminated by the Boston Bruins in the Eastern Conference Final in 2019 and in the first round of the 2020 playoffs before losing to the eventual-champion Tampa Bay Lightning in the second round of the 2021 Playoffs. It might be a big jump to go from playoff team to Cup contender but the Hurricanes at least have a reasonable shot.
There is, of course, plenty of time left in the NHL season. That the Hurricanes having this outstanding statistical profile now hardly guarantees success at the end of the season. However, the strong underlying numbers do indicate a team whose performance should not drop significantly.
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Causes For Concern?
If there is one issue for Carolina to address, it is that it gives up relatively higher quality chances. For a team that is allowing the lowest rate of shot attempts (47.4 CA/60) and shots against (25.7 SA/60), it is at least noteworthy that the Hurricanes rank 18th in score-and-venue-adjusted expected goals against (2.46 xGA/60), an indication that while the quantity of shots against the Hurricanes remains low, there is something lacking in the team’s ability to defend the most dangerous areas in the defensive zone.
There are factors that could affect the Hurricanes' path to the Stanley Cup, not least of which is that the Metropolitan Division offers quality opposition. The Washington Capitals, New York Rangers, and Pittsburgh Penguins are the most likely Metropolitan teams to join Carolina in the postseason. They would all be capable of pulling off an upset.
Fortunately, there is time to address those needs before the trade deadline. The Hurricanes, like any contending team, could very well make some moves to shore up any deficiencies before the stretch run begins.
If looking for value in the Stanley Cup market right now, the team with the best record and possibly the best underlying numbers is a good team to target.
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