NHL Stanley Cup Final Conn Smythe Picks Debate: Which Star Will Lead Their Team to Victory

The Stanley Cup Final between the Tampa Bay Lightning and Colorado Avalanche kicks off Wednesday and, entering the series, neither of the teams' biggest stars is the betting favorite to win the Conn Smythe Trophy. Find out who our NHL experts believe will be awarded the most valuable player for his team in the playoffs with their Conn Smythe picks.

The Lightning are looking for the three-peat and the Avalanche are hoping to climb to the mountaintop for the first time since 2000-2001. Among the hotter series topics is who will win the Conn Smythe Trophy. Lightning goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy won the award last season. Can he do it again? Or will Avalanche goalscorer Nathan MacKinnon and Co. break through?

Michael McClymont and Esten McLaren debate their top NHL Conn Smythe picks prior to Game 1.

NHL Conn Smythe Picks Odds

(Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook)

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2022 NHL Stanley Cup Final Conn Smythe Picks: Nathan MacKinnon vs. Andrei Vasilevskiy

McClymont: MacKinnon a man on a mission

Nathan MacKinnon is a man possessed.

https://twitter.com/Sportsnet/status/1534001790382915584?s=20&t=hyMBvTnidN04aoTEfZzjWg

After disappointing second-round exits the past two seasons, the Avalanche superstar is singularly focused on driving his team to playoff success this year.

While he ranks seventh in playoff points with 18 (and behind teammate Cale Makar who has 22), the Avs have only had to play 14 games and are 12-2 after two series sweeps. Nonetheless, MacKinnon ranks second in the league in playoff goals with 11, trailing only Evander Kane who has since been eliminated by Colorado.

He should finish the postseason as the top goalscorer, considering the closest competitor still active is the Lightning's Steven Stamkos and his nine goals.

And it's not just the number of goals, it's the sheer force and will with which MacKinnon has been tallying them. MacKinnon scored in every game of the first-round sweep of the Nashville Predators, notched a hat trick in the first opportunity to eliminate the St. Louis Blues in the second round, and scored in three of four Western Conference Final games against the Edmonton Oilers.

Should MacKinnon continue that pace against Vasilevskiy and the two-time defending champion Lightning, he's an easy selection to win the Conn Smythe.

The Avs are the betting favorite to lift Lord Stanley's mug. As such, MacKinnon should be the front-runner to take home the Conn Smythe. He's listed at +200 at BetMGM but can be had for +240 at FanDuel.

McLaren: Value on Vasilevskiy can't be ignored

I’m not even sure MacKinnon will be the first choice if the Avalanche manage to win the Stanley Cup. Makar has five goals and 22 points through 14 playoff games while averaging 27:05 of ice time per game. He also deserves a tremendous amount of credit for his defensive play, especially in the final three games of the Western Conference Final against the Oilers during which he posted a 52.89% Corsi for rating and 55.14% expected goals for share at 5-on-5. Most of our top-rated sportsbooks also list Makar as the favorite for the Conn Smythe.

The Lightning may be underdogs in the Stanley Cup Final, but the back-to-back NHL champs weren't favored to begin each of their first two series against the Toronto Maple Leafs and Florida Panthers. Vasilevskiy went 8-3 with a .932 SV% across those series. He then improved his play to allow just five goals on a .955 SV% across four straight wins in the comeback series win over the New York Rangers in the Eastern Conference Final.

Vasilevskiy is the defending Conn Smythe Trophy winner with a 16-7 record and a .937 SV% last postseason. It can easily be argued that the Lightning have faced a more difficult road en route to their third straight SCF appearance and Vasilevskiy has been up to the task outside of just two poor performances in the series openers against the Maple Leafs and Rangers.

Should the underdog Lightning halt the Avalanche, Vasilevskiy will get the lion's share of the credit for shutting down the strong attack of MacKinnon, Makar, and Co. DraftKings is offering market-high odds of +400 for Vasilevskiy to win his second straight Conn Smythe Trophy. That's value that can't be ignored, even though he opened at around +4200 prior to the start of Round 1.

McClymont: The case against Makar, Vasilevskiy

Makar is having an outlandish postseason, to be sure, but let's face it, the Conn Smythe is a statistical award and therefore shutting down the Lightning's top line and adding a few assists might not be enough to clinch it.

A defenseman has won the award just twice in the past 14 seasons. The last to do so was the Lightning's Victor Hedman in 2019-2020, but he helped his own cause by scoring 10 goals.

And as for Vasilevskiy, was he even the best goaltender in the Eastern Conference Final? The answer is a resounding no. Vasilevskiy may have earned the win in the last four games of the series, but he was clearly outplayed by the New York Rangers' Igor Shesterkin.

In your tallying of Vasilevskiy's numbers, I see you neglected to mention he had a 2.35 GAA and .919 SV% in the Rangers series, when he was beat by the likes of Frank Vatrano (two goals), Filip Chytil (2G), Kaapo Kakko (1G), K'Andre Miller (1G), and Ryan Lindgren (1G).

When Vasilevskiy won the playoff MVP award last year, he did so with five shutouts and a 1.90 GAA to his name. This year, he has one shutout and sports a 2.27 GAA despite seeing significantly fewer shots.

MacKinnon is the most dynamic player in this series and with second-line center Nazem Kadri out due to injury, he'll be counted on to take on even more of the offensive load. And never underestimate the power of the narrative. Writers vote on these awards. If MacKinnon has a strong series, they'll be looking to pass the Conn Smythe torch from previous winners such as Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin.

McLaren: No denying 2020-21 winner's resume

I’m glad you brought up the narrative angle, since I don't think there's anyone with a stronger case than Vasilevskiy in that regard.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oBsOuA5qgFg

Lightning star Nikita Kucherov told the hockey world last year how much that locker room thinks of the 27-year-old walking trophy case. Knowing what Kucherov and the rest of the Lightning think of their goaltender, how can voters back anyone else?

Vasilevskiy is a two-time cup winner, two-time All-Star, former Vezina Trophy winner, and the reigning Conn Smythe winner. He has already backed his team to playoff wins over the first- and second-highest scoring offenses from the regular season. Taking down the team with the fourth-best offense from the regular season, including MacKinnon's 88 points across 65 games, is a modest final labor.

As for the playoff goal-scoring race, Lightning forwards Stamkos (9), Ondrej Palat (8), and Kucherov (7) are within striking distance of MacKinnon. This is especially true when factoring in that they'll go up against the Avalanche's uninspiring goaltending duo of Darcy Kuemper and Pavel Francouz in the Stanley Cup Final. If any one of them manages to catch MacKinnon, his main criterion for winning the award disappears.

There may even be a world in which Vasilevskiy becomes the first goaltender since Jean-Sebastien Giguere in 2003 to win the Conn Smythe without his team winning the Stanley Cup.

Where to Bet on NHL Conn Smythe picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

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NHL Conn Smythe picks made on 6/13/2022 at 2:19 p.m. ET.